Political Memes

Republicans have significant division in their caucus. Look at the chaos they had with electing a House speaker. Most of the Republicans in the House will talk the talk, but ultimately they really don't want to tear down the entire government. But there's a quarter of them or so that would eagerly vote for a bill that just shut the Federal government down entirely. There's some real whackadoos there. Or some people who will simply never vote for a debt limit increase under any circumstance.

And Republicans are looking like they're going to have a razor thin margin in the House, probably only 4 or 5 seats. History has shown that when the House GOP needs to actually govern, they fail miserably. They also have quite a few histrionics within their ranks who will object to any significant bill just for the sake of getting attention. Inevitably, any significant legislation to come out of the House will require at least a few Democratic votes.

And then in the Senate, there's the filibuster to worry about. Republicans are loathe to repeal the filibuster; as on balance, it helps Republicans a lot more than it helps Democrats. So any significant legislation beyond basic budgets and court confirmations is going to require the participation of at least a few Democratic Senators.

And this actually does concern me. Democrats suffer from pathological bipartisanship. It is in their DNA to always offer an olive branch, try and be the better person, and seek a compromise. It just takes a few compromising Democrats to see some really terrible legislation passed. If Republicans try to pass anti-trans legislation, they will not be able to do so on their own. In the House, some of the Histrionics Caucus will object to its because it doesn't go far enough. And they won't have the 60 votes they need in the Senate. But if a few centrist Democrats decide, "hey, I can compromise on this. I'll vote for this, but in exchange I'll ask them to water it down a bit. So we'll end up taking away fewer civil rights..."