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this post was submitted on 12 Aug 2023
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The biggest achievement that the Sixers made this offseason is improving the coaching staff (at least the head coach). The Sixers lost some of their depth and did little to backfill what was lost. They somehow got older as well, which is impressive given that they were already one of the older teams in the league last year.
It doesn’t look like they’ll be able to easily get younger since they only have 4 draft picks (just 2 1st rounders) in the next 4 years and they lost most of the players they could send in a package. Without the big, long term contract that Harden wants, there is likely little reason for him to stay in Philly. However, if both Embiid and Harden show up for a full game at least 4 times each playoff series, the Sixers still have a chance at finally getting past the second round and possibly even winning the Finals.
The window for the Sixers with Embiid/Harden is just 1-2 season though. If they don’t make it past the 2nd round again with Embiid/Harden, then Hinkie, Harden, and even Embiid likely won’t be with the Sixers to see the 2nd season of that window.
Who's actually going to pay him that, though? This guy's been making trade demands like HOU Harden, but that guy doesn't exist, anymore.
He really doesn't need to be prime Houston Harden in Philly - at least not regularly. If he can stay healthy, play make at an elite level, play solid defense, score efficiently, and (occasionally) put up Houston Harden numbers when Embiid is out, then he would be well worth the contract for Philly. The problem is that those things aren't really a guarantee - especially his availability and defense.
With that said, he's still a big name that brings a lot of money to a franchise and is a high level player. He can probably get the contract he wants, but it likely will not be with a contending team. Harden will have to choose between ring chasing or cashing out. It seems like he's trying to do both and he won't be able to because he isn't Houston Harden anymore.
Well said, and I don't disagree with any of that, but what I was specifically bringing up was the issue of him getting one last big payday. Indeed, it's hard for me to see even most non-contending teams paying what he wants.
For example, if you're a rebuilding team, then adding him is taking away development time from someone else, and I don't know that the Beard is all that great as a mentor. Or if you're stuck in mediocrity, looking to attract fans, then I don't think this version of Harden is going to move the turnstiles all *that* much. After all, even in his prime James could be pretty hard to watch with his iso-ball, gamesmanship, and chronic apathy towards defense. No, I think he almost needs some kind of owner / exec who really likes him to get that theoretical payday, but he had the best version of that with Morey, and managed to bork that up.
On top of all that, motivation is also a huge concern. Even with a big contract on a non-contender, do I trust him to live up to said contract? As the exec pulling the trigger, I'd be very nervous about doing so.
Yeah, I might be a little cynical with those outcomes, but they're based on real facts that I'm not just pulling out my wazoo. Now, I have no particular ill-will towards Harden, even as a Nets fan, so whatever the case I've got my popcorn handy.
Hoping for Embiid and Harden to show up is just not a great strategy. We've now had years of data to show how they specifically DON'T show up when it matters the most. The numbers are all there and they don't pass the eye test either.