this post was submitted on 21 Aug 2023
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These "categories" are only superficially the same thing. Here's what social/casual games and PC/console games have in common:
Here's a couple of things that are very different:
I know I'm being reductive here, but I think the point is valid. They're superficially the same but used for very different purposes. Putting them side-by-side on a chart like this is like comparing revenue across all car makers and determining that, because McLaren made $280 million in 2020 while Kia made $44 billion, sports cars are going away soon.
If McLaren did go away, the McLaren driver is not going to replace the McLaren with a Kia, because those are not the same thing, even though they are in the same way that a pair of scissors and a Hattori Hanzo sword are both blads, or maybe in the same way that both brass knuckles and a bazooka are weapons even though one cannot replace the other. If Baldur's Gate 3 were never released, I wouldn't have dumped my $60 into Fortnite skins because I'm looking for something particular out of a game. My goal isn't just to burn $60 on anything that shows me moving pictures and maps my inputs onto those pictures. Those attributes of a video game may be what make it a video game, but they aren't the attributes that will make me enjoy it or want to spend money on it.
If McLaren and all sports car makers go away, most of the money spent on those is not going to funnel into compact cars. It's going to stay in people's pockets. $280 million dollars doesn't hold a candle to $44 billion… but someone is going to want to take that $280 million! So, someone will probably keep making sports cars… just like someone will probably keep making the games that will take the remaining ~$73 billion slice of the video games pie.
Some public companies may jump ship to chase the social/casual dollars… but these are the companies that have been trying to blur the lines anyway (think EA), so we're really not losing much. The talent who delivered PC/console games we used to enjoy from EA have mostly moved on to other studios or to form their own studios so they can keep making what they like.