this post was submitted on 07 Jun 2023
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There is no way that the Lemmy network can handle millions of users. The big instances are struggling with tens of thousands. I believe many will leave and reddit will become worse because of it, but it's not going to die, it's going to turn into facebook.
Reddit has slowly replaced mods in large subs with employees. And you vastly overestimate the willingness of the average user to put up with quirks of new platforms like Lemmy.
For Lemmy to support the 430 million monthly active users that reddit has - this is currently, in my opinion, impossible. The largest lemmy server has tens of thousands of users, and is running on the most powerful server that VPS provider OVH offers. The lead developer knows that there are big performance improvements needed in the code and has been working on it for some time, but it will be years before the lemmy network can handle even a few million active users, in my opinion.
It IS Facebook right now, but for zoomers. Nothing but emoji replies, copy-pasting the same tired meme for the millionth time, and so on. The reddit I joined back in 2012 died a long time ago.
I'd argue the 2012 version of reddit was much the same. The narwhal bacons at midnight. First rule of reddit. So many lolcats. I think I was just younger back then, everything was new.
Gotta convince some of the tech guys coming over from Reddit to spin up their own Lemmy instances so we can properly be distributed and share the load.
There are 150+ instances listed on the lemmy site. If we somehow managed to get all those instances running on hardware that could handle thousands of users, then we managed to find enough new techie people to get 10x as many instances, then we worked out some way of getting the load shared evenly so the new users didn't all congregate on one instance and you manage to do this without confusing non-techie people about how it works, if all that goes to plan and you get each instance to support 10,000 users - you've now managed to support 15 million reddit users.
Reddit has over 430 million active monthly users. It's just not feasible to do by 1 July, we need to let the community grow organically.