Canada

If you are still on variable, no real change

Au contraire. It would blow your mind how many people are on these bullshit fixed payment variable mortgages. There's people that unknowingly have these weird scenarios like effectively 60+ year amortizations now, due to the sharp increase of interest this past little while and the fact their payments haven't even been covering their interest for some time, let alone the principal. The banks won't actually spill the numbers as to how many of these types of mortgages there are, but thats all banks peddled the past decade.

I renew next year on a fixed mortgage. To be fair, I've also known that this has been a loooooooong time coming, and hence didn't overspend when we bought in 2019. The pressure sure as fuck was there, the realtors like you can afford way more, the mortgage people were like spend spend spend. Even our boomer parents, who don't live under any sort of modern economic reality, were trying to push us towards the bloated mcmansion end of the spectrum, market never goes down, maximize, blah blah blah.

Anyone with half a brain had to have known this was coming. I'm actually for real surprised it took this long. While nobody could have forseen COVID, or the super sharp inflationary spike that resulted, even as far back in 2019 I suspected inflation and higher rates were soon going to be creeping in. It wasn't rocket science. While I didn't exactly predict >7% interest, at the same time I honestly had 0% expectation I'd be renewing for the one point whatever our current mortgage is at.

In fact, I'm doom and gloom on our country as a whole. I think we've been glutenous little piggies for far too long, and the central banks have already gone way too far overboard trying to get to their imaginary little targets. I think they've already popped the bubble, and we just won't know this for sure until defaults start to really spike by Q3 2024. Anyone in Toronto or Vancouver renewing on these bullshit fixed payment plans maybe is just going to walk away, it's probably going to be too much payment and amortization to overcome in some of these overheated markets, against rapidly declining values. Toronto and Vancouver have already flattened out, which might be indicating a large correction on the horizon. Rentals are going to spike, already have in most markets, and that's going to push all the renters out. Basically I think it's going to be a fucking disaster. Hope I'm totally wrong, but I'm not 100% sure I am just yet.