Collapse

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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.

Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.

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Observational and model evidence together support wide-spread exposure to noncompensable heat under continued global warming (www.science.org)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Abstract

As our planet warms, a critical research question is when and where temperatures will exceed the limits of what the human body can tolerate. Past modeling efforts have investigated the 35°C wet-bulb threshold, proposed as a theoretical upper limit to survivability taking into account physiological and behavioral adaptation. Here, we conduct an extreme value theory analysis of weather station observations and climate model projections to investigate the emergence of an empirically supported heat compensability limit. We show that the hottest parts of the world already experience these heat extremes on a limited basis and that under moderate continued warming parts of every continent, except Antarctica, will see a rapid increase in their extent and frequency. To conclude, we discuss the consequences of the emergence of this noncompensable heat and the need for incorporating different critical thermal limits into heat adaptation planning.

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

Here’s a link to a newspaper article that refers to this study.

The previous research they refer to is entitled “Evaluating the 35°C wet-bulb temperature adaptability threshold for young, healthy subjects (PSU HEAT Project)” and is here.