this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2023
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I still don't believe theres much chance the current Russian administration would use Nukes. Even if Putin got desperate enough to give the order, few others would commit to a suicide pack for their entire nation short of actually being invaded. Much easier to just replace the top man in such a dire situation.
My worry for a weakening Russia is if it splinters and local warlords get their hands on Nuclear weapons. Nobody benefits if they end up on black markets.
I'm curious at what point China will get involved. I don't think they would want to live next to an unstable mess and it might be bad for business
They'll never admit it, but you know China has to be eyeing Outer Manchuria. The Chinese have been developing and populating their side of the border and the Russians have done little outside of Vladivostok.
If the Russian state collapses, they have to make a play for it, right?