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On Retirement Savings (sh.itjust.works)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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I'm almost 40 and according to the wisdom found everywhere on the internet, I don't have enough saved for retirement. Which worries me because I've been saving for as long as I've had a proper job with access to a retirement vehicle. But also because the internet wisdom doesn't make sense or sound feasible.

According to what I've read, you're supposed to have:

1x your income when you're 30
3x your income when you're 40
6x at 50
8x at 60
10x when you retire

I'm almost 40 and I have just barely over 1x saved. So it feels like I'm 10 years behind. However, my income has grown substantially over the course of my 30s, more than doubling. So accounting for growth in income, I do have almost 3x my salary in my late 20s. But similarly, the above advice could be interpreted as needing 6x the income you had when you were 30 by they time you're 40. And by that metric, I'm doing even worse!

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

There definitely are ways that spending can increase after retirement to take up money previously used for taxes and savings. The key thing is to focus on the spending side. You have to know how much you're actually spending, today, before you can sensibly add new expectations. Then you can sensibly plan for how to meet those expenses. You've hit on probably the two most popular categories - healthcare and travel.

In the US, healthcare is a huge unknown anti-lottery, but the ACA has been a great boon for early retirees. Early retirees generally have very little declarable income - spending from taxable savings, so only the gains or dividends are taxable - and the ACA tax credit effectively caps your premiums at a sliding percentage of that income. The nominal premium may be $600/month, but you'll only pay $80 at $30k income (which might allow you $60k spending). Biden changed the formula for Covid to be even more generous, but I believe that's temporary. Obviously still have to pay care costs, but ACA plans have annual out-of-pocket caps, currently in the $6-12k range, so you (theoretically) won't face total disaster if you need a $250k liver transplant. You still have the lottery system of whether you have significant costs or not, but having a limit on your losses helps. Definitely learn how the ACA and Health Savings Accounts work if you're planning to retire early.

EOL care is a big part of that unknown. There is insurance for long-term care that can, if nothing else, convert the unpredictable anti-lottery to a predictable expense. It's also worth noting that when you need to transition to assisted living, you no longer need your primary residence, so it's fair to plan to sell the house to pay for the nursing home.

If you plan on passing the house on, then maybe the kids can earn that house by helping with care. My parents planned on passing their house on to the kids, but none of us want it. Us kids needed help when our parents were 50 - college, starting households, etc - but by the time they retired, let alone approach end-of-life, we're now 40s, 50s, established in careers, and starting to think of our own retirements and legacies. By the time my parents (probably) pass, their kids will mostly be retired and their grandkids well on the way of their own lives. Passing at 85 is very different for the surviving generations than passing at 65.

For me, using the future value of the costs exacerbates my fear. I prefer to work in inflation-adjusted numbers and reduce expected investment returns by inflation. Mathematically, it's the same - add 2%/year to all your costs or subtract 2%/year from all your savings - and I have a much better intuitive feel for today's costs & spending. SS income gets an annual inflation-rate increase.