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China, in 2023 alone, installed more solar capacity than the US has ever done in its entire history, surpassing expectations.
(lemmygrad.ml)
Sources:
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US Total Capacity: 73.5GW (as of January 2023)
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US Q1 2023 Newly Added: 6.1GW
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US Q2 2023 Newly Added: 5.6GW
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US Q3 2023 Newly Added: 5.5GW (90.7GW Total)
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China Q1 2023 Newly Added: 33.66GW
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China Q2 2023 Newly Added: 44.8GW
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China Q3 2023 Newly Added: 50.48GW (128.94GW Total)
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China 2022 Newly Added: 13.21GW in Q1, 17.67GW in Q2, 21.72GW in Q3, 34.8GW in Q4, 87.4GW Total
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China 2023 Newly Added (Bloomberg Prediction): 150GW, evenly split as 37.5GW for each quarter
You described the US in both scenarios.
What makes you think Americans will forego cheap energy if China and Russia don't?
What makes you think that renewable energy isn't the cheapest energy right now?