this post was submitted on 24 Nov 2023
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Can you not abuse this position by betting on the option contrary than the one you're promoting, in order to increase your winnings?
Bro you just explained crypto 2021
And the NFL in 2023
yeah, however these types of jobs have existed for a long time. That is what Nate Silver of 538 did before doing what he does now. He might still do it too, don't know though. So, I assume, they have contracts and other methods of mitigating that conflict. I also assume that clients/employers do what they can to know if someone like him is trying to fuck them over. There are probably some pretty nasty consequences for getting caught too. I doubt they can ever get rid of all risk but, if the person is good, I imagine the risk benefit analysis falls into the favor of using people like him. You will find these types of entities scouting university math departments, especially statistics majors.
Generally not, the odds don't change based on what people put their money on.
The odds for lots of sports betting literally change based on the bets made. Bookies, legitimate or not, shift the line and odds to account for the money on the line - they're never going to lose money if they can help it. The house always wins.