this post was submitted on 30 Nov 2023
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In the mind-bogglingly unlikely event that a Venus-sized object was on a collision course with Earth, I'd guess we'd likely have a couple of years' warning. Maybe a decade. It's not easy to detect objects out beyond Neptune, even when they're sizeable.
The odds are so incredibly small that they're not worth worrying about even abstractly, IMO. The Solar System has gone for 4.5 billion years without any of the Terrestrial planets in it being smacked by a rogue planet (I suppose it's possible one of the gas giants might have swallowed a small one in the distant past, though even then I'd expect signs of such an event to remain on its moons) so the chance that one might happen to come along right at this instant in time is vanishingly small.