this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2023
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[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Maybe/probably but it's a false dichotomy. Interest rates are only one mechanism for controlling inflation, and a target coarse one.

Consider housing, increasing the interest rates makes it harder to buy a house, but it also makes it harder to build a house. Since this inflationary spiral we seem to be getting sucked into is at least partly (probably mostly) tied to restricted supply of "the stuff to buy" side if the balance, prolonged high interest rates could lead to stagflation.

This same high inflation also effects capital spending at any company seeking to expand production.

I'm not an economist, and I'm sure you'd get three different answers from two different economists, but I'm thinking we're getting into that tickle point where interest rate hikes might start putting us into stagflation. Fundamentally, central banks aren't going to fix this global inflation problem by playing with interest rates. You're dealing with a real loss in production wrt the pandemic, and now a major land war in a highly agriculturally productive area of the world.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Raising rates seems to do two things to housing:

  • encourage targeting luxury housing - if you're rich, prices aren't as important
  • encourage selling to larger landlords - more apartments, fewer condos/townhouses

Builders are still going to build, they just need to target people who can afford the higher prices.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Looking at the construction industry in Quebec, builders aren't building anything... There's zero clients right now...

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

Meanwhile in Ontario there's not enough labor in construction.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

The problem is that people increasingly CAN'T afford the prices. Where are all they people that can afford near million dollar homes for 8% interest (or cash) come from?

At best, they'll be people who are landlords who already have significant wealth and will rent at sky-high prices...