this post was submitted on 19 Jan 2024
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This is really cool. Thanks for taking the time. Confusing but the good kind.
I'm just using this to info to then try and extrapolate.
I understand the growth of moores law and such. But the efficiency I was talking about seems almost like 1 exponential jump on an exponential curve.
Let's just say for argument sake that meta makes AGI next year with 350,000 GPUs it would only need 2,000 GPU's to make use of what it's built. That's pretty mind-boggling. That really is singularity sort of talking.
So in your mind AGI when? And ASI when? You working in this field?
Yeah, those GPU estimates are probably correct.
I specialized in ML during grad school, but only recently got back into it and keeping up with the latest developments. Started working at a startup last year that uses some AI components (classification models, generative image models, nothing nearly as large as GPT though).
Pessimistic about the AGI timeline :) Though I will admit GPT caught me off guard. Never thought a model simply trained to predict the next word in a sequence of text would capable of what GPT is (that's all GPT does BTW, takes a sequence to text and predicts what the next token should be, repeatedly). I'm pessimistic because, AFAIK, there isn't really a ML/AI architecture or even a good theoretical foundation that could achieve AGI. Perhaps actual brain simulation could, but I'm guessing that is very inefficient. My wild-ass-guess is AGI in 20 years if interest and money stays consistent. Then ASI like a year after, because you could use the AGI to build ASI (the singularity concept). Then the ASI will turn us into blobs that cannot scream, because we won't have mouths :)
Yea I had a feeling it was still a long way away. At least the media will get bored of it in a year and only the big breakthroughs will make it.
But I think there will still be a lot of "stupid" yet impressive developments like GPT. It appears smart but isn't that smart. Sure there will be other things.
It's the same as the manufacturing developments. Only now are we beginning to build things similar to the complexity of a human in limited functions. But that doesn't mean the machines we have built haven't put millions of people out of work, we just changed manufacturing to better utilise the stupid things they can do much faster and accurately than we can and made a better product because of it. I found out about a year ago we couldn't make a Saturn v rocket now even if we had all the money in the world. The ability of man has been lost. The way they did the machining of the rockets and the welding and things like that, no one alive has that ability anymore. Robots can't do it either. But the rockets we make now are more accurate that the ones made in the 60's. It's just done differently.