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On the bright side for them, they still have a commercial monopoly. The number of ads might go up while the quality of the content goes down.
Inertia will keep a train going for a while, as the engine dies.
The people that are now on lemmy were the heaviest users. The ones that bought 5 different apps to improve their experience and figure out which one they preferred : the mods, the creators, etc.
Have they all left Reddit completely? Probably not, but now they split their time. And stats say the proportion on Lemmy is increasing.
We now have an opportunity not only replace but contribute in the creation of something new - new mechanics, new rules and more.
Reddit is tired and has been for a while, Lemmy developers are building the Reddit they always wanted, and are innovating at breakneck speed.
Simple things like Top by 1, 6, 12 hours which we now have here, was badly needed in Reddit but they were too busy trying to shoehorn video and flairs.
I just dropped Reddit from my phone today, the Firefox moderator protest to change r/firefox to "We are a subreddit about fire foxes aka red pandas" was oddly enough the breaking point for removal from my phone (despite last night's unfortunate hack).
The protests have just become the new reddit fad. Anyone still there that's not part of a self-help, resource/info sub, and claiming to be part of the 'protest' is just circlejerking.
I'm kind of starting to feel like that actually may be what reddit wants - because the tech savy people using third-party apps are also probably just ad-blocking, and it's usually a niche content that will never be massively consumed. Compare that to the junk at instagram or TikTok, that doesn't require any kind of effort to interact with, and compare how many users such platforms have.
I think Reddit would be pretty happy with their content turning into TikTok junk for the masses, and their userbase changing into consumers of that content. Just because there's just a lot more of people who consume such content, and who are used to companies milking them for profit and bombarding them with ads, because they just don't care.
EDIT: And by driving away the "nerds" who moderated and kept a higher standart of content, which in turn turned away the users looking for more easily consumable content, they may get just that. The teens who probably heard about Reddit being the place where cool nerds hang out and tried to get into it, only to be turned away by actual content, will now find exactly what they are looking for.
I'm okay with this. As long as Lemmy is thriving with good content, that's all I care about.