this post was submitted on 16 Feb 2024
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Even the older Mode C/S transponders broadcast altitude, and passive radar could probably get you position. As I understand it, ADS-B doesn't add a ton that wasn't already available (from the point of view of a terrorist), but it does eliminate the need for radar, and includes ICAO hex codes that make it easier to uniquely identify an aircraft.
To shoot down a plane flying at 33,000 feet you'd need a surface-to-air missile system and a few missiles. Looks like the system used to shoot down MH17 cost ballpark of $100m, possibly more. Missiles are around $200k each.
You get target tracking and missile control radar included for free in your mobile SAM. At that point ADS-B is probably redundant, though I guess it could help you track the plane before it enters your airspace.
Though, really, where an airplane is going is usually not a secret. In most cases a flight plan will be filled (unless VFR). And there are other sources for near-realtime and realtime flight path information, including directly from the FAA.
You could also hire spotters with binoculars just to confirm that the plane is headed towards your mobile SAM.
Or, once the flight plan is filled and the departure time is confirmed, just stand outside the airport with a shoulder mounted missile launcher.
Ah, I see. That makes sense.