I think you're right. And I think NATO wants Russia to completely commit to a war they can't win until the government collapses and/or rethinks its global strategy.

Not really. He controls the media narrative in Russia, he can tell his people whatever he wants, and hypocrisy and contradictions has never been any problem for him. He has already long since altered his reasons for attacking Ukraine and succesfully fed the Russian population those reasons, and he will keep doing it every time reality threatens to undermine his lies.