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this post was submitted on 25 Feb 2024
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Technology
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Yes, the technology is there but it is not Level 5, it is 3.5-4 at best.
The point with a full self-driving car is that complexity increases exponentially once you reach 98-99% and the last 1-2% are extremely difficult to crack, because there are so many corner cases and cases you can't really predict and you need to make a car that drives safer than humans if you really want to commercialize this service.
Same with generative AI, the leap at first was huge, but comparing GPT 3.5 to 4 or even 3 to 4 wasn't so great. And I can only assume that from now on achieving progress will get exponentially harder and it will require usage of different yet unknown algorithms and models and advances will be a lot more modest.
And I don't know for you but ChatGPT isn't 100% correct especially when asking more niche questions or sending more complex queries and often it hallucinates and sometimes those hallucinations sound extremely plausible.