this post was submitted on 05 Mar 2024
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and thats completely bassed on assumptions that they will do it, but with history's sake, it currently says the opposite, and its kind of haphazard to junp to the extreme end immediately.
the main differemce is that for consumer use, you not only need the hardware, but the cooperation with all the software developers, many which are international to get performamt hardware.
Take for example with GPUs and Moore's Threads. they can develop a gpu, and repurposing it for server use is doable, as you have he company buying it, programing the software to work with the hardware. but the moment you bring a hardware like that to the consumer space, despite its compute performamce, it fails to launch a lot of typical consumer applications and usecases because of two fronts, consumer software is developers around the world, and you need to support their region or have a large enough market using the hardware for them to even remotely consider optimizing for the hardware, and the drivers need to be well done. Both Moore's Threads and Intel show that its not remotely easy to make consumer level drivers.
You're right, I do have a very pessimistic outlook on this subject. I personally see this as an emerging battle of sorts between the technology sector of the West and China, but it may not be that dire. There may still be hope for cooperation and positive competition.
You're also right about there being a large software development component that would be made less likely by a shaky future. Though I think that could be overcome by force and focus, and I have to admit, that is something I respect about the Chinese tech sector.
I am also pretty amazed in general with the progress that's been made on these chips in such a short time, props to them for that.