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Everyone in Japan will be called Sato by 2531 unless marriage law changed, says professor
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 02 Apr 2024
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Maybe I missed something, but he seems to be using the same math as the guy who projected his baby would gain a weight of a trillion pounds if the rate of increase remains constant.
Not only that, it kinda implies that everyone wants to be a Sato, otherwise they could chose the other surname upon marriage. Which people would most likely do if it is too common. Given this assumption, the option to keep your maiden name wouldn't help (but should still be there).
The article mentions that the woman gives up their name 95% of the time. It's assumed, and implied that the choice is effectively not exercised.
Assuming the choice is never exercised, couples produce the same amount of children with the same gender distribution regardless of surname and these children are all just as likely to find a partner, in theory, the distribution of surnames should be in equilibrium. Of course ignoring name changes, migration and other things playing into the availability of surnames.
Following this logic, these 5% of couples using the maiden name of the bride are the ones actually leading to any kind of long term change. Which to me implies Sato can only be the surname of a majority if the majority wants it to happen.
Yeah it is weird that he didn't account for the fact that non-Satos would decrease as Satos increase. But then again I don't think this is a serious research work.