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BrikoX

Demographics Professor Warns that by 2531, Everyone in Japan Will be Named Sato (www.spoon-tamago.com)

submitted 7 months ago by BrikoX to c/interestingshare

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Despite today's date, this is not an April Fool's prank. At a press conference in Tokyo last weekend, professor Hiroshi Yoshida from the Tohoku University Research Center for Aged Economy and Society, sounded the alarm bell for a looming crisis. By the year 2531, e

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (1 children)

The math is also wrong.

You can't apply exponential growth to the proportion of a total.

Growing from 1% to 2% (a 100% gain) is equally a reduction from 99% to 98%, a 1.01% drop.
Going from 99% to 100% (a 1.01% gain) is equally a reduction from 1% to 0%, an infinite drop.

Simple exponential modeling is the wrong tool.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 7 months ago

Oh… he’s just doing an exponential growth model?? I have trouble understanding how this got traction at all then, he should be embarrassed. Maybe the delivery was tongue-in-cheek?

I assumed there was more interesting happening in that paper. How disappointing.

I assumed there was more behind that graph (I assumed he calculated the coefficient from something more interesting and just slapped it on a graph with like y = exp(\beta_0 x) for his news article)