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There aren't enough Christian nationalists to swing the election for Trump. I think people forget it was independents in a relative handful of swing districts that swung the election for Trump in 2016, but many of those same independents swung to Biden in 2020, and I see no reason to think those independents will swing back to Trump in 2024.
God i fucking hope so. Theres a massive push to convince folks to stay home or vote third party. The best hopes señor racismo has of winning is low voter turnout. Id like to think that the shrinking republican base, coupled with their continued attempts to appeal to their fringes, will swing the election to Status Quo Joe, but i cant help feeling worried.
I think Trump needs independent votes more than Biden does. I think there are just more liberals than conservatives in America, so if independents stay home or vote third party, it hurts Trump much more than Biden.
Well thats just not on par with reality. Low voter turnout has historically aided republican candidates.
There are more liberal people, but they are usually concentrated in dense urban areas, which dilutes their power.
It's true that there are more liberals than conservatives in America. However keep in mind that in the last 35 years, conservatives have only won the popular vote only once for president, but we've had a couple of Republicans as presidents since then. The Electorial college is really gerrymandered in conservative favor.
That's true, but the elections aren't decided by conservatives, they're decided by independents, by swing voters. The electoral college makes it so presidential elections are decided by a handful of swing districts in a handful of swing states. If independent voters choose to come out and vote for the Republican candidate in those few swing districts, it gives the Republicans a massive advantage. If those independents vote for the Democrat, obviously that gives the Democrats a huge advantage, too, but if those independents stay home or vote third party, I think that also advantages the Democrat because the Democrats can just rely on their natural plurality when independents aren't in the mix. This is what happened in 1992. Bill Clinton was able to beat the Republican incumbent because a lot of independents voted third party.