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Blasts heard above Israel after Iran launches drone attack – live (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have said any threat from the United States and Israel will be met with Tehran’s reciprocal response, Iranian state TV reported.

“Any threat by the United States and the Zionist regime originating from any country will result in a proportional and reciprocal response from Iran towards the origin of the threat,” the Guards said in a statement.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

This looks like a saturation attack towards the Israeli air defense. The drones and possibly the ballistic missiles are cheaper and more numerous in comparison to the interceptors needed to destroy them. The aim is to exhaust the interceptors. So, the attack cannot be seen as a failure even if they didn't land.

Another thing to note is that some missiles/drones did manage to make it to the ground. Excluding some interception failures, the others were probably neglected by the air defense system. Israeli air defense is configured to neglect the projectiles that are expected to fall in unpopulated and unimportant areas. That again shows that the effectiveness of the attack cannot be judged from the number of drones/missiles that landed.

And finally, the attack's effectiveness depends on the loss of lives and property caused on the Israel side. However, releasing reports and footage of such destruction would be demoralizing to the Israelis. So they're likely to downplay the attack. Meanwhile Iran is likely to exaggerate the same to look menacing and superior. So take the reports from either side with a grain of salt. The truth is likely to be somewhere in the middle.