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"Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe."
Niccolo Machiavelli - The Prince
this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
393 points (99.0% liked)
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(2 replies)
This is not a "war", it is a "special military operation".
This is not a "coup", it is a "march for justice".
Everyone tries to control the narrative, this is completely normal. Anti-terrorist operation, peacekeeping mission, special military operation, march for X. I don't remember someone who just said "yep, we are invading X".
In this case both Prigozhin and Putin (or the establishment) are trying to control the narrative to gather support from "patriots". Saying you are making a coup sounds antigonizing, while saying you are marching for justice, because it's the government who has betrayed the people does not.
The Wagnerites also seized the buildings of the head office of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSB department, the administration of #Rostov and one of the police departments, according to local channels. Nobody in the city understands what's going on.
How lovely
Like watching Cobra attack the Decepticons.
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I would like to submit "Putin panics and nukes his own people to stop the advance" for my Bingo card.
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Holly shit this has been picked up by the BBC.
Remember, it doesn't matter if they succeed or not. The fact it has happened will terrify Putin.
I feel like this might be on behalf of Putin.
Wagner has been pretty careful to call out everyone but Putin.
Feels like setting the stage for a claim that the war was orchestrated by rogue elements in the Russian military, giving an out to tuck tail and run and move toward easing sanctions.
Judging from the address to the nation, this doesn't seem the case now.
The situation is still very confused.
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Nah, this feels more like an "evil counsellors" situation - you don't want to take on the king directly, so you instead give him an out by saying that he's OK but he's been given bad advice. Which also means if you do take over you can keep him around as a figurehead who now listens to better advisers like yourself.
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Breaking
„Ukraine runs out of popcorn“
https://twitter.com/war__online/status/1672535209038827521?s=20
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my mind is so blown. i didn’t have wagner turning against russia on my bingo card
I mean Prigozin has been advertising his eventual turning against Putin for a while, but I didn't think it would happen as a full on military coup
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More evidence as to why you don’t hire mercenaries. They are only loyal to the money. I hope the US is watching with their love of PMC’s.
Especially if you send the mercenaries on a nonsense mission to die a pointless death...
Especially when you then allow that mercenary group to release and recruit 30,000 prisoners
I welcome russian infighting. Hope it makes it easier for Ukraine to retake Crimea.
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25,000 troops marching on Moscow. How many does the Kremlin have not already in Ukraine?
How many do they have not in Ukraine... Who are also willing to kill fellow Russians? If the average Russian military sentiment is, "Eh, let them through" this could be huge.
Plus a lot of the "Royal Guard" may be well-connected rich kids who are even less inclined to fight.
Way too soon to know for sure, but. 🍿
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The Ukraine counter-offensive sure is effective.
Can someone please explain what's going on ? I am out of the loop. I know Wagner was fighting for Russia but what happened now?
Everyone in Wagner was about to be conscripted into the regular Russian Army as the latest in an ongoing power struggle between Wagner's boss and the Russian MoD. So to avoid losing his private army, the boss has stepped up the power struggle to an attempted coup, basically.
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The head of Wagner was unhappy with Russian military leaders and thought he'd take matters into his own hands as Putin was going to support him. Putin did not. Now there are 10,000 men heading to Moscow.
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Wagner switching sides was not on my bingo card
They didn't switch sides. They created a third side. A Mêlée à Trois.
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Ukrainian army called ...they need fresh supplies of popcorn...
Generally, I don't like to gloat, but I did call that one ~ June 5th over on Reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/france/comments/140qkwu/destructions_incursions_%C3%A9vacuations_dans_la/jmyndp3/?context=3; in French because it was on r/France).
It actually is much worse than it seems - I did a write up over on Mastodon to explain why and how (https://mastodon.social/@andrei_chiffa/110599724720727202). The TLDR is that cities taken by Wagner mercs will be hard to retake without leveling, all internal protection troops are either tied or were lost in Ukraine, and mercs themselves have nothing to loose and all the revenge to take.
Tu avais raison.
It's very strange how things are going right now. The fact that they are quite effortlessly moving hundreds of kilometers through Russian territory is quite telling.
If Kiev has been saving something up for a special occasion, this occasion is starting to look pretty special.
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If there's one thing I've learned from my history classes it's that power vacuums (or even perceived power vacuums) and the ensuing instability always end well for everyone involved....
/s
People are tired of this war. Putin wanted to secure food reserves and have an open access sea port for his military; however he wasn't honest as to his reasons why; understandably so. Given this the Russian public doesn't see the actual geopolitical value of the conflict. This was inevitable. If Russia couldn't play nice with the rest of the world as their money mostly comes from oil and gas; which we are moving away from. Let them pay for their crimes.
If they would merely keep Rostov, a city with one million citizens, this would already be an enormous problem for Russia. But the Wagner group is going all-out, and I strongly doubt whether they'll be able to oust the Russian government.
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