- Mexican Pres. Andrés Manuel López Obrador has expressed his sadness over the murder of his fellow Morena party member and mayoral candidate for Celaya, Bertha Gaytán, on Monday — the first day of her campaign. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
- The outgoing president offered condolences to her family, and stated that episodes of violence against political hopefuls ahead of the June elections are "very regrettable." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
- At least 22 mayoral candidates have been murdered since September, compared to 32 in the previous local elections. While victims are distributed among all parties, most attacks target candidates challenging the incumbent. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
- Gaytán was killed in an attack that injured three others, including the city council candidate Adrián Guerrero, during a rally in the community of San Miguel Octopan. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
- Though allegedly unaware of such an attack threat, she had requested security assistance for her campaign. According to polls, Gaytán was the main challenger to Mayor Javier Mendoza. EL PAÍS English
- Celaya was ranked the world's most dangerous city last year, and the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel — which killed the son of Mayor Mendoza in 2022 and threatened Gaytán in the past — controls the area where the attack took place. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)
Narrative A:
- It has been quite common in Mexico for criminal organizations to engage in pre-election violence at the municipal level as influence over local power is crucial to their business and much easier to hold than at a state or federal level. This was their latest — but certainly not their last — attempt to get their preferred candidate elected.
MEXICO NEWS DAILY
Narrative B:
- While there is indeed a correlation between gang violence and political violence in some Mexican states, this oversimplification fails to explain how political violence can be high despite relatively low levels of gang-related crimes. Power dynamics and local-level disputes also contribute to this worrisome trend.
RELIEFWEB
Nerd narrative:
- There's a 3% chance that the US will deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)