- Somalia on Thursday expelled Ethiopia's ambassador and closed the East African country's consulates in Hargeisa, Somaliland's capital, and in Garowe, the capital of the semi-autonomous Puntland. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
- Somalia's Foreign Ministry ordered Mukhtar Mohamed to leave the country within 72 hours after the office of Prime Minister Abdi Barre accused Ethiopia of violating the country's sovereignty by meddling in its internal affairs. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
- The decision to expel Mohamed and close Ethiopia's consulate offices was reportedly taken over a controversial Somaliland port deal. It comes a day after a Puntland delegation traveled to Ethiopia to expand bilateral ties. Addis Standard
- Puntland's information ministry rejected the consulate's closure, accusing Mogadishu of attempting to exercise control over "a territory it does not govern," while Somaliland's foreign ministry described the decision as "a mere dream." Voice of America
- Puntland has withdrawn from Somalia's federal system, stating it would govern itself independently. On Sunday, it rejected constitutional amendments passed by Somalia's federal parliament. The East African
- Ethiopia-Somalia tensions escalated in January when Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, allowing the landlocked country to lease a coastal strip and set up a naval base and a commercial port. France 24
Narrative A:
- Given the illegal deal between Ethiopia and the separatist Somaliland region, the Somali government's decision is justified. Neither the AU nor the UN recognizes Somaliland as a separate political entity, and the US also denounces Ethiopia's move. If Addis Ababa goes ahead with its plans to finally gain access to the Gulf of Aden, the entire region will destabilize. The only way to resolve the crisis is for Ethiopia to abandon the Somaliland deal.
MODERN DIPLOMACY
Narrative B:
- Shutting down Ethiopia's embassy and consulates is an outrageous overreaction by Mogadishu that will further fuel bilateral tensions. The port deal is a sovereign decision by two independent nations, and by simply not recognizing it, Mogadishu disregards international law and the inherent right to self-determination. Somalia's stance may have dire regional repercussions, and Mogadishu should seek a diplomatic solution rather than damage diplomatic relations.
ADDIS STANDARD
Narrative C:
- The escalating Somali-Ethiopian conflict needs to be seen in the context of the growing geopolitical rivalry in the Horn of Africa and its strategic location on the Red Sea. The Gulf States, Turkey, Iran as well as the US, China, and Russia are all involved and Ethiopia's desire to gain access to the sea and the resulting dispute could exacerbate the ongoing Red Sea crisis. All parties need to redouble their efforts to avoid further escalation and promote regional peace and prosperity.
AL JAZEERA (LR: 2 CP: 1)
Nerd narrative:
- There's a 33% chance that Ethiopia will formally recognize Somaliland in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)