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In 1998, Paul Krugman predicted the internet's impact on the economy would be no greater than the fax machine's (lemmy.world)

submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago (2 children)

The fax machine actually had a massive impact on society and is much older than you think (newer than the telegram, older than the telephone, and in use during Abraham Lincolns life time).

Just because it's usefulness had declined in the prior 10 years to him making that statement, doesn't mean it didn't affect the economy.

In the year 2100 or 2200 the internet as we know it may have been superceded by methodologies we can't even comprehend right now.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago (2 children)

In the year 2100 or 2200 the internet as we know it may have been superceded by methodologies we can’t even comprehend right now.

It's gonna be fax machines again, isn't it?

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago

Federated Fax Machines

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

for a given definition of "facsimile" - you might be right

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Hell, in Japan where I'm from the fax machine is still an essential business tool, actually moreso for some businesses than the internet.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I think you misspelled Germany.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

You misspelled United States

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

The only reason I still have to mail documents is because of the medical industry. A few years ago a bought a house almost entirely from my phone.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

Just take some ibuprofen and the swelling should go away; that'll be $725,394.39

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago

Nowadays you can affect the economy with one shitpost.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I read a follow up quote somewhere the last time I saw this that he said it sucks to be remembered for one dumb quote- though I feel like by ‘98 you’d have a better read than that, the internet wasn’t “new” in 98. The iMac which famously shipped with a built in 56k modem came out in 97.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I will say, the internet in 1998 looked nothing like the internet today. There was barely any commerce at all. 1998 is maybe the year you'd start to say that Amazon "made it", but even then the common take from established reporters was that they'd never be able to compete with brick and mortar booksellers like Barnes and Noble. To the extent that the average person was even aware that you could buy things on the internet, it was mostly because they'd heard that it was dangerous to use your credit card online.

At the time, the web was still pretty small. Google launched in 1998 -- prior to that Yahoo was the most popular "search engine", but Yahoo was mostly a human-curated list of web pages organized by topic. Windows 95 was still what most people used, and it didn't even come with a TCP/IP stack enabled.

Certainly not a brilliant prediction, but it's hindsight that takes it from "pretty mediocre take" to "comically stupid".

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

@deong

@AlmightySnoo @carl_dungeon

Certainly not a brilliant prediction, but it's hindsight that takes it from "pretty mediocre take" to "comically stupid".

The quote points out exactly why an expert in one field, economics, shouldn’t be assumed to be an expert in adjacent fields, how technological progression will make new forms of business possible

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

In a 2013 interview, Krugman stated that the predictions were meant to be "fun and provocative, not to engage in careful forecasting"

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

I'd say that too if I was that hilariously wrong about something.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago

I don't know enough about fax machines to comment on that

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (2 children)

A Nobel Prize really makes you stop questioning yourself huh?