- A new Pew Research Center poll shows 55% of US Catholics say they would vote for former US Pres. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, compared to 43% for incumbent Pres. Joe Biden. Biden won the demographic 50-49% in 2020. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
- Biden still holds a 49-47% lead among Hispanic Catholics, but that's much narrower than a similar Pew poll from 2020 that had Biden leading Trump by 67-26% for that demographic. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
- Trump's lead among White Catholics — 61-38% — has grown since 2020. Four years ago he was polling at 57-42% in that demographic. NCR
- The report says Trump leads 60-38% among all Protestants, 81-17% among White Evangelicals, and 57-41% among White non-Evangelicals. Biden, however, leads Trump by a margin of 77-18% among Black Protestants. pewresearch.org
- Christians are split on the issue of Trump's alleged effort to overturn the 2020 election, with 35% of Protestants saying he broke the law compared to 48% saying he did not. Catholics are split 41% each on the issue. pewresearch.org
- This polling comes as Hispanic Catholics reportedly make up about 40% of the Church in the US, with Hispanics as a whole projected to account for 14.7% of eligible voters this year. NCR
Republican narrative:
- While Biden claims to be a practicing Catholic, he continues to support gender and abortion laws antithetical to the Church's teachings. So it makes sense that more and more true Catholics are distancing themselves from him and backing Trump, who would better represent their interests in the White House.
CATHOLIC HERALD
Democratic narrative:
- Ethnonationalism has unfortunately spread into some factions of the Church and Trumpism has filled a void left by past liberal-minded Church leaders. But that doesn't mean the old guard is gone. Pro-democracy Christians have an opportunity to stop this political religion in its tracks by backing Biden, who truly represents their values.
LA CROIX INTERNATIONAL
Nerd narrative:
- There's a 52% chance that Joe Biden will be reelected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)