- After Israel called for the evacuation of eastern Rafah on Monday, Hamas announced it would accept a cease-fire deal. However, the details were unclear and the situation continues progressing rapidly. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
- Israel's war cabinet, after reviewing Hamas' answer, voted unanimously to push ahead with an operation in Rafah "to apply military pressure on Hamas." Israel said Hamas' response was "far from Israel’s obligatory demands." Nonetheless, Israeli negotiators are set to talk with regional mediators for further cease-fire discussions. The Times of Israel (a)
- Israeli Channel 12 reported that Israeli officials have received Hamas' answer, but said that the proposal Hamas is referencing is not what Israel agreed to with Egyptian mediators over a week ago. The officials said that Hamas had added clauses preventing the resumption of hostilities. The Times of Israel (b)
- Israel dropped leaflets over Rafah early Monday, calling for people in eastern neighborhoods of the city — around 100K people — to evacuate to al-Mawasi, a nearby coastal area designated as a "safe area" for civilians. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
- About 1.4M Palestinians have taken refuge in Rafah, and aid agencies have said that an Israeli offensive would worsen Gaza's humanitarian crisis. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday argued that Rafah was Hamas' last stronghold and entering it would prevent Hamas from rebuilding its military infrastructure. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
- US Pres. Joe Biden reportedly spoke to Netanyahu on the phone for 30 minutes Monday. Netanyahu reportedly agreed to re-open the Karam Shalom Crossing into Gaza after it was closed following a Hamas attack on a nearby Israeli outpost killing four soldiers on Sunday. Axios
Pro-establishment narrative:
- It's taken a lot of work by representatives of several different countries to hammer out a deal that's the best outcome for both the hostages and the Palestinian people. Hamas has agreed to this three-part deal, and it would behoove Netanyahu to also accept it without a major attack on Rafah.
CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
Pro-Israel narrative:
- Israel must move ahead cautiously because so much about this deal is still unclear. Hamas has used deceptive tactics in the past to stall and gain time to prevent Israeli military actions, and it seems Hamas is attempting to insert last-minute clauses in an attempt to pressure Israel to accept a bad deal.
JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)
Pro-Palestine narrative:
- The most consistent obstacle in these negotiations continues to be Netanyahu and his far-right government. If he wasn't pursuing salvaging his political career — and if the Biden administration wasn't so weak geopolitically — perhaps thousands of lives could have been saved. Either way, it's now up to Israel to ensure the end of this brutal war.
MIDDLE EAST EYE
Nerd narrative:
- There's a 5% chance that a shared power arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)