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Win percentage on the play (sh.itjust.works)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Does anyone have some data on how the win percentage differs depending on play vs draw? I guess it differs highly for aggro and control players with midrange somewhere in between.

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

This is from 2020 but probably still holds now:

That image shows the stats, but it's:

Limited
- Play: 51%
- Draw: 49%
Constructed (Standard)
- Play: 56.5%
- Draw: 43.5%
Brawl
- Play: 56.1%
- Draw: 43.9%

Pretty surprising how much more of an edge it gives you in constructed vs. limited.

Data from https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/h0zso2/on_play_on_draw_winrates_from_mtg_arena/

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Huh, I didn't realize it was that significant of a factor.

I suppose the "right" way to play is BO3 which I assume fixes the problem, but still, it makes me think if more should be done in BO1 situations to even it out more. Player 2 gets a free mulligan maybe? Free t0 scry? I'm sure these ideas have been suggested before.