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• Australia v South Africa in Perth
• New Zealand v Argentina in Auckland

Table:

Fixtures:

Friday 16/08:

• Otago v Auckland

Saturday 17/08:

• Northland v Manawatū
• Tasman v Canterbury
• Hawke's Bay v Southland (Ranfurly Shield Challenge)

Sunday 18/08:

• BoP v North Harbour
• Wellington v Taranaki
• Counties-Manukau v Waikato

My Predictions:

• Auckland 13+
• Northland 21+
• Tasman 6-
• Hawkes-Bay 6+ (Hoping to make it to McLean Park for this one)
• BoP 13+
• Taranaki 6-
• Waikato 13-

Seeing as I care more about the NPC than any other Rugby I feel like I ought to start a thread for this too, even though i'm the only person here that probably has any interest :)

Round 1 Fixtures:

• Taranaki v Counties-Manukau
• Auckland v Wellington
• Canterbury v Northland
• Southland v Otago
• Waikato v Bay of Plenty
• North Harbour v Hawkes Bay
• Manawatū v Tasman
• Bay of Plenty v Counties-Manukau*

*Due to the compressed nature of the competition every team has what's called a storm week where they end up playing 3 times in about 10 days which is why this match is marked as the 2nd game in round 1 for these two teams

• Australia v South Africa in Brisbane
• New Zealand v Argentina in Wellington

Massive news for Moana Pasifika, probably the biggest signing announcement in the entire history of Super Rugby.

No idea how they can afford him, but I've seen some people suggest they picked up some new finance from somewhere. It'll be interesting to see where he plays, possibly at 7 given Inisi had such a huge season at 8 for them this year.

Decided to tweak it from Summer Internationals bc its been freezing & frosty down here in my part of New Zealand!

• Tonga vs Italy
• Samoa vs Spain
• USA vs Scotland
• Canada vs Romania
• New Zealand vs England
• Australia vs Wales
• Japan vs Georgia
• Namibia vs Portugal
• South Africa vs Ireland
• Argentina vs France

Figured i'd write up a summary similar to the end of the round-robin.

The Losers:

8 - Rebels: Both a sad and successful way of ending the club. First time making the playoffs, last time playing a game. Some might argue that they spent a lot of money and didn't really get competitive - 8th place was earnt on 5 wins, 9 losses. But they actually played really well at times during the season. Maybe without all the off field stress the slump in the back half wouldn't have been so bad. A decent squad, coached fairly well - but trying to break the sporting market in Melbourne is tough. Even the NRL only has 1 team there in a city of 5 million, vs 9 in Sydney and (sortof) 2 in Brisbane. So small crowds probably leans into weaker home performances. Sad to see them go - the fans they did have were passionate, no idea who can replace them.

7 - Drua: From some of the smallest passionate crowds to some of the biggest. The Drua are near unbeatable at home in either Lautoka or Suva, and even in the quarter final against Auckland their fans were so loud it almost felt like a home game at times. 6-8 for the season, if they can find a way to consistently win away from home they will easily get a winning record and if they ever got a home quarter or semi, they would be hard not to back to go further. Everybody loves the Drua, and hopes that Moana Pasifika can replicate it!

6 - Highlanders: Like the Drua, a 6-8 season, the weakest kiwi squad struggled with injuries. When Rhys Patchell was playing they looked like a classic attacking NZ side. When he got injured out of the season up stepped Cam Millar and they went to a simple, old school game of slotting 3s and grinding teams out. I kinda loved it; especially de Groot's nonchalant one arm salute to the posts whenever the referee gave a penalty within 40m. Finally got a win against an NZ team after a long drought, and with a group of younger players maybe they're finally getting a development pathway that catches up with the rest of the clubs. If the playoffs are reduced to 6 next year and the Crusaders aren't having another shocker, they'll struggle to make it.

5 - Reds: The Reds are the only losing quarter finalist to have a winning round-robin record at 8-6; there's a lot to like about them and their young players will have a lot to draw from in future seasons but boy did they manage to crap the bed at times this season. Particularly away to teams they should have been beating. 31-40 away to the Force, 17-14 away to Moana Pasifika after a bye week. You can forgive the losses to the Drua and the Highlanders on the road but to be serious title contenders they'll need to find a way to win one of those and also win home games against teams like the Blues or Brumbies. Possibly their worst result and why I backed the Chiefs 20+ was only just beating the Waratahs who'd only managed wins against the Crusaders before that match. Les Kiss seems like a great coach though and I expect them to do pretty well next year.

The Semi-finals:

Well, given how dominant the top 3 teams were this season (all 12-2 records) its no surprise that with home field advantage the Hurricanes, Blues & Brumbies all made it through. The Chiefs went 9-5 but made light work of the Reds at home in what was in a way the least competitive of the 4 quarters. The Rebels really made the Hurricanes work in the first half, and the Drua and Highlanders competed for a time as well before succumbing to classier outfits.

None of the scores were close but they were decent matches; just fairly predictable results given the top 3 teams had double the wins of their opponents! Most of the crowds were on the low side, but the Aus-NZ games tend that way so maybe a bit of a disappointment but expected.

Blues - Brumbies: This should be a cracker; two great forward packs and direct teams going hammer & tongs. The Blues might be without Tuipolotu which will be a big loss he has been huge at lock for them this season; and Akira Ioane also picked up a niggle. Tricky to pick a winner so maybe just go with the home field advantage? Probably one of those games that needs the squad announcements before making a confident pick. Lolesio & Tom Wright have been great for the Brumbies this season so their backline is working well with a settled midfield combo too. Plus Rob Valetini's floor for performance is so high it's easily other player's ceiling. They have 1 Magpie in Ollie Sapsford so if they weren't Australian i'd be tempted to back them.

Hurricanes - Chiefs: The 'canes had 4 of my Magpies on the field at once in the quarter so I almost felt like supporting them. Don't know how many people they had at the stadium in Wellington - maybe only 9-10k, but i'd like to think if they'd made a bold call and held the quarter up at McLean park they'd have packed in 13,000 or so which would have looked & sounded cooler. Anyway, the Chiefs have under performed this season and failed in consecutive weeks against the Hurricanes at home, then the Blues away. But they only lost by 3 against the 'canes and can take a lot from how the Rebels used and abrasive defense and heavy work at the breakdown to limit the Hurricanes opportunities. I still think the Hurricanes have enough on defense to hold the Chiefs out, and more on attack to pick up points. If they get a roll on could even be a 13+ win, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs clinched a tight one.

Figured i'd share my thoughts on how the season shook out and what's coming up in the playoffs. Indulge me!

The losers:

12 - Waratahs: Even more injuries than the Crusaders, they've sucked for a few years now and just didn't have the cattle to compete. Maybe next year if they can pick up some decent players from the Rebels.

11 - Moana Pasifika: Some people rate this year as a bit of a turnaround with a better coaching setup. I'm not sure I see it. They beat the Drua, Reds, Force & Waratahs at "home" but were pretty woeful on the road, including a big game playing in Tonga. They desperately need a real home base (or at least a couple of bases they visit regularly outside of Auckland) and I suspect if SR can't find a 12th team for 2026 they might get dropped for a 10 team comp.

10 - Force: Of the losers, the Force actually looked pretty good at times. It feels a bit weird due to the allegations which he was acquitted of, but when Kurtley Beale started playing for them, the combo with Donaldson at 10 looked really good. Still they only managed 4 wins - even if they looked hard to beat at home.

9 - Crusaders: an awful season which the last few rounds showed was more to do with personnel being unavailable than anything else. Take Whitelock, Mounga and Jordan out of a team and they'll lose some stars, but then ask them to do without Taylor, Barrett, Blackadder, Burke and Havili as well and decimate their coaching staff for Razor's benefit. It shouldn't have been a surprise they struggled to win, let alone dominate. On the bright side, their loss was Super Rugby's gain - I think the interest in the comp comes from the unpredictability and SR should strive to ensure no team can dominate like that again, for the benefit of the comp itself.

The Playoffs:

SR has been a season where the top 3 have been awesome - all with 12 wins, then there's been a logjam in the middle until the strugglers who've all had 4 wins except the 'tahs on 2. That makes most of the quarters a little uncompetitive, but still...

Chiefs - Reds: There's a lot to like from the Reds this year, but they've been really inconsistent and away from home its hard to see them tipping over the Chiefs who've looked good whenever they're not playing the Hurricanes & Blues. Actually to be fair, they've looked ok against them too, but those two are on another level. Hurricanes - Rebels: The Rebels form over the last half of the season was awful, I see them getting stomped here. Hurricanes have been too good on attack this seasons. Blues - Drua: Everybody knows the Drua are incredible at home, but away they kinda suck. The Blues play a very direct & physical game, they should have even more players coming back for the playoffs and should have a dominant win. Brumbies - Highlanders: For a while there it was a chance that the Brumbies could take 2nd, or maybe even 1st place. They are near unbeatable at home. The Highlanders have had huge injury disruptions and have been solid enough but are unlikely to get past this round.

A lot of people mock the fact than in a 12 team competition a whole 8 teams make it into the playoffs. But with the top four teams secured with 2 rounds to go all of the drama is now in who will finish ranked 5th-12th.

None of the teams ranked 9-12 are playing each other in the next two rounds, in a way that should significantly change their fortunes (barring 1 game) so I think its mathematically possible for any of them to actually qualify in 8th if the Drua lose both of their next two games.

So in a way a generous qualification serves to deliver 4 matches in he first week of the playoffs and ensures there's something to play for all the way to the end of the round-robin.

So thinking of the bottom 6 teams...

• The Highlanders have the Drua at home, then the Hurricanes away so should bank at least another 4 points putting them on minimum 27.
• The Drua struggle away but have the Rebels at home in the last round so should pick up another 4 putting them up on 25.
• The Force go away to the Reds, and then have the Brumbies at home so ordinarily you'd think two losses, but they are a real force at home and Kurtley Beale has helped ignite their attack - its plausible they pick up two wins so land anywhere from 23-27 points.
• The Crusaders are highly unlikely to beat the Blues away this weekend, then have Moana Pasifika at home. MP were very competitive against the Hurricanes this weekend so I could see an upset but it really depends on if Scott Barrett is back or not. Maybe 19-20 points.
• Moana Pasifika are at "home" to the Waratahs and away to the Cru so are probable 19 points, possibly 23.
• The Waratahs injury rates are so high that even though Moana Pasifika's "home" game won't give them the edge a normal home game would they probably won't win, and then they're at home to the Reds who haven't travelled well this year. Its possibly they pick up a couple of wins and end up on 20, if they got bonus points their ceiling is 22; but they've had a horrible season and its more likely they'll only land on 12-14.

Based on what's likely the current top 8 are the top 8; the most likely change is The Force getting up and dropping either the Highlanders or Drua out depending on which one of them win that match.

The top 4 are confirmed, but they all still have plenty to play for if they're hoping to move through the playoffs and want to secure home advantage for more games. Games to watch are Chiefs-Hurricanes this weekend, and then Blues-Chiefs the following as that will decide who finishes where.

Also - the kiwi teams are going to be toughened / tired depending on how you look at it as Blues, Hurricanes, Chiefs all have some big games to play against other Kiwi teams heading into the playoffs.

Even more so than Foster, Sam Cane was very unfairly maligned by the NZ Rugby public during the trials of the '22 - '23 seasons.

It reflects what we value in our rugby players that being the guy on the field that cleaned up after other's mistakes, did all the hard graft, the heavy tackling, clean-outs that he was often mocked for a drive of only a couple metres when receiving the ball. Most folks missed that what he was doing was giving the ABs attack line a chance to reform while under huge duress from defensive pressure.

He hit top form in time for the World Cup and even after all the injuries he'd suffered over the years his defensive hits were huge. I'm a kiwi so of course I think it was unjust that he received a red, while Kolisi got only a yellow given the contrasting force in their two tackles. But even if the ABs had won the cup last year somehow he would still have his doubters back home.

He's 32, has had to suffer through some major injuries - deserves a few years making big money with his family close by before retiring from rugby altogether.

New law changes confirmed by World Rugby and new law trials announced.

We're in the middle of the 3 bye weeks where each round 4 teams sit down and have a break. So the table looks a bit odd but because of the way the draw plays out at least teams in the top 5 are settled through to the end of Week 9.

At the end of next week the possible changes I see are:

• Fiji might get up over the Hurricanes playing at home, but the latter are playing so well and have such a strong squad it seems unlikely. The 'canes would still be top of the table on a loss I think, while Fiji would possibly sneak up to 6th depending on other results.
• The Blues play the Brumbies at home and while either could win you'd hope the home advantage means the Blues get a better hold on 2nd place. But with 6 rounds to go after next weekend there's still plenty of movement possible.
• Queensland are at home against the Highlanders, and were so woeful against Moana Pasifika that you'd expect some form of response so I don't see the Highlanders moving up the standings in round 9.
• The Crusaders managed to lose to The Waratahs who have been decidedly average, leaking a bunch of points in the process. Next they are up against the Force who have been mostly terrible but also managed to beat Queensland at home, so anything's possible here. Either result just shuffles teams around in the group currently outside the playoffs so doesn't impact the top 8.
• On the Crusaders, a bunch of their supporters have been holding on to their playoff pedigree and their more than mathematical chance of getting into the playoffs in 8th place, making them a real banana-skin game for whoever is 1st. Stuff like 'If you were in 1st place you wouldn't want to come up against the Crusaders in 8th'. Well, any other year's Crusaders sure, but so far nothing about this year's Cru with their horrid injury toll should cause the Hurricanes, Blues or Brumbies much concern. They will get Scott Barrett back soon, and probably Fergus Burke - though given he's heading off up north i'd just invest the time in Rivez Reihana & Riley Hohepa if I were the coaches. But the bigger loss for mine is Will Jordan not there to offer a spark on attack from 15, and none of their options at 9 offer what Bryn Hall did.