~~It's possible that the Dems would have held the House, barely, if the New York Democratic party hadn't completely screwed up redistricting, so that's maybe a "soft false~~." I think what he means by "charismatic" is someone like Reagan who appeals to the other side of the aisle (Reagan Democrats in this case); Trump is only charismatic to his own followers. I consider the Afghanistan withdrawal to be, overall, a highly positive thing; yes, it was handled badly, but it's the easiest thing in the world to keep a forever war going, and at least there Biden put a stop to it, so I give him high marks for that at least. Anyway, I wonder if that is considered a foreign policy failure; I don't, but others might. Not trying to blindly defend Lichtman or anything, just trying to cling to whatever shred of hope remains. I think it ends up sort of being how Lichtman himself interprets the keys a month or two before election day.

EDIT: Rereading key #1, "After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections," I guess that even if the NY Dems hadn't screwed up there probably would have been a smaller majoirty than before, ergo false.

Ok, yeah, just trying to cling to what little hope there is here---DON'T DEPRIVE ME OF MY HAPPY PLACE. 😉

I do think Lichtman's right about debates not changing outcomes, tho...but of course there's a first time for everything...

Also, looking at the list, I’m pretty sure more than 6 are false.

You mean for Biden now, or for previous elections?

Yeah, he did kind of fudge that, it's true (IIRC he said that Trump would win the popular vote rather than the electoral vote, whereas it was of course the other way round). Although I think I remember before the election he said that Trump would "win," but he didn't say exactly what he meant by that.

Although if he did, then (I think) a key would be lost!

I mean, Lichtman himself will tell you he's not infallible, and his system is not without controversy, but he seems to have had a pretty good track record up to this point.

Presidential debate performances have historically had zero discernible impact on the election. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

Need some hope? Watch this.

Most Americans don't care a fig about debates, or even watch them, but Joe's performance was certainly less than stellar, it's true. Um, early days, still? My fondest wish is that Joe would step aside for J.B. Pritzker.

I have fond memories of playing these, but dear god was Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy frustrating! There was another Infocom game, Trinity I think it was, where you needed to get some water or something like that, but you couldn't put it in an empty boot, you had to have the bucket for it to work. Kind of like playing "guess the mind of the programmer." Fun times, even so. And then there was Leather Goddesses of Phobos . . . 😊.

I feel like I'm the one always asking questions, so it's nice to have the opportunity to provide an answer for someone once in a rare while, so thank you! 🙂

This?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLaLboT11aY