junebug2

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-u-s-navys-missile-production-problem-looks-dire/

An article from the ~~Burger Eagle Freedom Center~~ American Enterprise Institute from a few months ago about the Imperial Navy’s missile production. The two USA ships that attempted to intercept Iranian missiles on Monday launched 12 missiles between them. The 2025 military budget, and allocations for the next five years, will produce 12 SM-Block IIA missiles annually. While about a hundred of another missile type has been ordered, this is apparently 10% of the number ordered in 1985. This year, the White House has passed several budget cuts for USA Navy missile production. Point and laugh.

https://archive.is/cGiyS

Warning for Haaretz, but it’s the absolute other end of perspective on “20 F-35s destroyed”. And they give satellite imagery of the Nevatim base after Monday. The cope about missile interception might be entertaining for some. While the destruction of 20 F-35s is probably exaggerated, the F-35 has something like a 30% mission capability rate. So while the warning from Iran likely let them get some of their F-35s in the air, at most a third of them were actually capable of missions. Now i am not a plane person, but i believe a plane that isn’t fully mission capable can still be flight capable. So if we very generously flip that ratio and say only 30% of F-35s could not fly, there were at least 6 planes grounded when the missiles hit. The red circles in this top image are a bit strange to me, because the entire top row of cubbies (?) is covered in what look like blast marks to me. It’s possible only one plane has been destroyed, but individual F-35s fail all the time. Maybe “israel” has too much invested in its reputation to come up with a training accident story, but it seems likely several were damaged if not destroyed.

it’s mostly just the deranged fascist demons. Russia also recently announced a draft of official changes to their nuclear policy, but apparently they have that meeting annually. Ukraine has been kinda sorta pushing for nuclear war for a while, but that’s just because they want to keep escalating and they are otherwise facing a wall. the USA and UK has been saying no to deep strikes, and hopefully they keep doing that.

my biggest doomer take is based on the paper talking about the climate effects of nuclear war. i believe a (relatively) low yield strike in either the Middle East or between Pakistan and India is hypothesized to decrease global temperatures by over a degree and didn’t threaten agriculture enough that politicians or rich people would feel it. the USA is internally incoherent at its best, so i’m confident there’s at least one person in the government who thinks this way. no clue how close they are to the button, though

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/an-american-coup.html

An article from a few weeks ago about the Pentagon allegedly putting their foot down over the President. i agree with Yves that this does not count as a coup. The current zionist escalations can be seen as either taking advantage of the lack of leadership or driving hard to get the Pentagon in the war. i can imagine General John Quartermaster looking at USamerican arms supply, production, and recruitment rates and saying, “We cannot do all of that shit, please stop.” i also know that liberalism can easily detach itself from negative numbers. The CIA (and the gang, i don’t have a better umbrella term) has operated as an independent arm of military and foreign policy since its inception. Additionally, the professionalism and competence of the federal bureaucracy, already a joke on account of the career path into lobbying, has been seriously upended by waves of inter-liberal partisan purges. i believe the Biden administration made it past the first year with hundreds of positions not filled across the government, including ambassadors and assistant secretaries of state. The military, intelligence, and state departments are pulling three different ways. i believe the role of the President is to wrangle and command the different branches of the federal government. Intellectually, many liberals declared victory in ‘91, which led to complacency. “We’re America, who cares about diplomatic decorum or procedure, let’s start a 30 year long invasion of Iraq.” Complacency has led to an empire running on fumes, and now that our alleged drivers can hear the engine sputtering, they assume they have all the diplomatic power in the world. i’d like to say they are wrong, but i have no words or explanations for the gullibility of the President of Iran.

https://www.eastisread.com/p/zheng-yongnian-asia-pacific-destined

A translation of an interesting article about why and how Asia is shaping to be a theatre of global conflict. The comparison between the rapid economic growth and militarism in Europe in the 30 years before 1914 and the last 30 years in Asia is particularly fascinating to me. i don’t know how anyone can say “China is the main enabler of Russia’s war aggression against Ukraine,” with a straight face, let alone the Secretary General of NATO. The West can issue out a constant stream of actions and threats to froth up the water, but certainly it will be the mendacious and dangerous Other who starts this conflict. In terms of nationalist tensions, i believe the South Koreans dropped all complaints about Japanese actions in World War Two in order to start military drilling and training together. That is nothing other than provocation towards the Chinese and Korean people. How to respond to these changes is an imminent and serious question.

https://archive.ph/20240823141136/https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl6547 (i’m sorry that my archive link doesn’t come with graphs, but you really just need to see the abstract and then i’ll copy down the policies that achieved success.)

A Science article about which policies in the last twenty years have actually led to emissions reductions. Broadly, in the studied countries, most actual reductions in emissions occur when two or more policy or enforcement mechanisms overlap. Successful policies include carbon price floors, phasing out coal, requiring renewables in a portfolio, stricter air pollution standards, and “strengthening financing mechanisms for energy efficiency investments” (it’s one of those articles). Labeling standards, reducing fossil fuel subsidies, building code reforms, and energy efficiency mandates all only work to reduce emissions when combined with other policies. The standalone policies pretty much double in effectiveness when used in a package. In developed countries, the most effective type of reform is pricing. In developing countries, the most effective type of reform is regulation. The paper cautions that all of these are only effective when pricing, regulation, information, and subsidy reforms are used together. i don’t know how exactly those categories are defined. Now, to translate that, climate change reform is good, and it has the most effect on emissions when we do a lot of it. Doing a lot of it entails multiple kinds of climate reform in multiple countries and multiple industries within a country. The policies that are enacted and that people are asking for work, they just aren’t being implemented enough. Now there’s a Science article that confirms what most of us would probably call common sense.

Hello, comrades. Like many of you, i do not live in SWANA and am saddened by the death of Hassan Nasrallah. i do not have any primary sources to add, but i do think there is at least one early operational lesson to be drawn from the facts we do have.

We know that a block of Beirut was destroyed by a number of missiles and bunker busters. Several hundreds if not over a thousand innocent people were killed and injured. But what is a bunker buster? In short, it is a bomb with a very thick shell (and so they are often very heavy relative to the payload size) and a remote delay or altitude based fuse. The ideal is that it smacks into the ground, keeps going forward for a certain depth or time, and then it goes off. And what kind of bombs are the USA and its lapdog using in their depraved spiral of carnage?

First, the GBU-28. Designed and produced first in 1991, there is actual technical information available. I have a deeply biased source, which gets a little too cutesy with the story of USamerican ingenuity. The relevant information here is “penetrated 22 ft of reinforced concrete and then kept flying for half a mile [of air]”. This bomb has a warhead containing roughly 675 kilograms of explosives. It’s also worth thinking about the fact that this bunker buster was designed with Iran, Iraq, Libya, and the DPRK explicitly in mind.

Next, consider Al-Jazeera reports of 5000 pound bombs and also this article from three years ago. The GBU-72, released in 2022, was designed with advice from IDF experiences with the 28. This is a JDAM conversion, which is the US military term for how the Russians are slapping basic guidance kits and two wings on surplus ordinance to create modern precision weapons on the cheap. So it has a larger warhead (though we don’t know how much) and it’s more accurate. Accuracy should mean hitting the street or ground in order to not waste the penetrating power, but who knows with the zionist entity. It’s worth noting that these are technically laser guided munitions. But how do you think the West determines where to put the laser if not via satellite imagery? And if they are figuring out a location from satellite imagery, what would they use if not GPS, which was put into space for this purpose?

Now we can talk all day about tunnel design and where we should be meeting with important diplomats. But the big point here is that JDAM, and all other dumb bombs with smart targeting, are wholly reliant on GPS. there are no USamerican bunker busters (that i can find info on) that do not use GPS. i, with all my authority as an armchair analyst, think that the Axis of Resistance needs to start working on spoofing and hardening devices against GPS (i am certain they already have). Spoofing refers to setting up a transmitter to feed a false stream of data into the environment, which makes it an obvious target but also creates a sort of bubble protection. Hardening can mean several things, but in this case i mean double checking communication devices for tracking bands (many chips can be built to only transmit at certain frequencies), reducing all GPS interaction in the area, and literally covering the walls of certain areas with aluminum foil if it comes down to it. i say reduce because i don’t know if you can stop all civilians in the area from using map software. If anyone wants to scream from the rooftops about Iran, don’t say you want them to launch anything. Iran needs to deploy every piece of electronic warfare it has, at home and in Lebanon, and then it needs to put in an order for twice as many more from China and Russia.

https://gordonhahn.com/2024/09/22/a-river-runs-through-the-end-of-the-nato-russia-ukrainian-war/

An article discussing the future significance of the Dnieper as a defensive line in the SMO. The naked capitalism discussion linked is a good one, about how much of Ukraine is flat and so its water systems are based on pumps and dams. This means that to achieve one of its war aims (fresh water access to Crimea), Russia will need to ensure Kiev does not dump raw sewage upstream. The least desirable option there is having Ukraine (or whatever) control Kiev, and Russia has to rebuild infrastructure. Actually taking Kiev is its own can of worms. The most effective and somewhat heartless option is the Russians continue to focus on power infrastructure. This is necessary for heating and water, especially as we enter northern hemisphere Autumn. Without power, the population density that can be supported is very low. This will cause refugee flows west, but i have also seen estimates that Ukraine has already lost half of its pre-war population. War is tragic.

https://splash247.com/91-hours-left-to-avert-supply-chain-mayhem-in-the-us/

An article about an imminent (October 1st) strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association. This sounds really cool, and the US Chamber of Commerce seems very concerned. Keep in mind the ILA has pledged that cruise ships and military deliveries will not be affected by the strike. If this does happen, expect oil and gas to go nuts. The biggest hubs for oil and gas are on the Gulf Coast, and the majority of Liquid Natural Gas terminals and capacity are also there. If the US cannot export natural gas to Europe, then the EU might be forced to reach the negotiating table before NATO (more realistically they further set their economies on fire voluntarily).

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/chinese-and-russian-firms-among-first-foreign-investors-indonesias-new-capital-nusantara-building-projects-4639486

An article about BRICS+ investment in the construction of Nusantara. For those unaware, Indonesia has been looking to replace Jakarta as the capital for decades, and the plan has been moving forward now that part of the city is below sea level. In theory, this will be an opportunity to correct for the poor sanitation, overcrowding, bad traffic, lack of green spaces, flooding, and depleted ground water of the much older and organically developed Jakarta. The new capital is being built on the east coast of Borneo. Hopefully, basic infrastructure gets more money than hotels and luxury secondary schools, though i do understand that the latter things make for better news articles.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/explainers/israel-war-lebanon-what-arms-hezbollah-have

A detail-light breakdown of the main equipment being used right now (drones, rockets, short and medium range missiles, and ballistic missiles). When thinking about the ranges, keep in mind the current depth Hezbollah seems to be attacking is roughly up to 80 km from the border, and “israeli” censorship begins at Haifa, roughly 80 km from the border. This depth is Hezbollah’s escalation ladder. Incredibly, they also seem to have found a Western military professor with eyes, who comments “…the Hezbollah threat [is] one that Israel cannot destroy militarily.”

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/three-carriers-simultaneously-china

A description of PLAN deployments in its own waters. The ocean surface isn’t the only thing getting hotter in the East Pacific. For those who don’t like ship details, it’s worth noting that Kuznetsov class carriers are really missile cruisers with a flight deck. The titular Russian vessel has anti-air, anti-missile, and anti-submarine defenses as well as 12 anti-ship cruise missiles and 24 8-missile Kinzhal batteries. The USamerican Nimitz class super carrier (which admittedly has a larger flight deck) has anti-air and anti-missile batteries, and no offensive armaments. Presumably, the Chinese have their own missile systems. There is one US carrier group asea in the Pacific, and i think it’s leaving through the Straits of Malacca. Always a good time to drill and train your ships when the enemy isn’t there.

https://www.labornotes.org/2024/09/strike-threat-wins-boarding-and-retro-pay-american-airlines

A little positive news about successful labor action. Every time i’ve been to LAX since 2021 or so, there has been a billboard about labor action on Howard Hughes (the main drag that we must sit in traffic before entering the airport where we sit in traffic). Covid kind of ravaged them, but there seems to be more and more airline related labor action. While the pilots, flight attendants, and transit workers are not necessarily radical unions, every win for labor lets the snowball roll forward. The reputation shift of unions is not because of messaging, it’s because of results. Good to get in the last hits before Trump or Harris guts the NLRB (which is doing pretty good under this admin, exceptionally critical support with an eye to past betrayals).

after initially thinking that this seemed like a good idea, isn’t the point of a megathread to contain a bunch of people talking about one topic? if and when we experience “100 comment hours” or “1000 comment days”, we are all on the same page, and sharing/ commiserating/ celebrating/ insulting the current moment. i think encouraging substantive main comments is good, but we don’t need strict rules

i don’t see censorship as inherently good or bad, and i believe some of the stuff facebook took down was of the “ivermectin covid cure” sort. Noticing censorship for the first time because of Covid is fine, as long as they can see how Covid censorship is of the same feather as the media blackout on CIA torture and the current chief. Just based on living near some cranks (some well-meaning and some not), i feel like jumping on Covid specifically points to a ‘plandemic’ sort of worldview.

i fully agree with your point about media control. i think future changes will use that reputation, as experts and arbiters of public opinion, as the basis for their legitimacy

https://www.kitklarenberg.com/p/british-intels-counter-disinfo-war

A article about how parts of the British intelligence community are seen as experts in mis- and dis-information, and how they are now exporting their experience. There is some detail about intelligence interacting with social media. The discussion is rooted in a leaked slideshow from an intelligence meeting in 2021. The exact way the author talks about the Biden admin’s Covid “censorship push” sets off my personal crank alarm, but the analysis of the leaked slideshow is not affected by this. Saying ‘counter-disinformation’ instead of propaganda might be a rehash of changing the ‘department of war’ to ‘defense’. Sir Kid Starver and many of his Red Tory compatriots are actual, factual MI6 assets. Czechoslovakian Internal Ministry documents from the Cold War had a whole file on the then-Mr. Starver. It’s also known that the British are more gung-ho about Ukraine than the US, and also that the Ukraine project was CIA before it was NATO. You can almost see the shades of our future where a need for internal security and countering Russian influence can only be entrusted to apolitical, non-partisan intelligence experts. See also the USAF intelligence general sending out an email requiring all federal and state candidates to agree to uphold election integrity as decided by the intelligence community.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/japan-says-it-received-no-advance-notice-of-chinas-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-launch/3340804

A short article about Japan rattling sabers over the PLA testing an ICBM. The article is from the Anadolu Agency, a news site from Türkiye with a logo that looks exactly like American Airlines. It’s Turkish bourgeois media, but Türkiye is trying to join BRICS+, so we might see reporting contrary to Western spin. Even if China informed every possible party and followed international law, the more important fact is that Japan is rapidly rearming under US encouragement (and, i believe, some popular discontent with militarizing). Every statement made now is building up a raft of ‘provocations’ and ‘lines crossed’ and ‘aggression’ for whenever the USA decides it wants a war in East Asia. See also the Philippines ‘accidentally’ having Typhoon missiles left in their country after exercises with the USA.

https://resistancenews.org/2024/09/24/the-exhilaration-of-first-strikes-in-lebanon-israel-repeats-the-mistakes-of-2006/

An article looking back at the last few days by the editor-in-chief of Al-Akhbar, translated by Resistance News. According to wikipedia, Al-Akhbar is a left wing, anti-zionist, leaning pro-syrian Lebanese daily newspaper. They also call it a semi-tabloid without a source, which makes me think that it reports facts that some wikipedia editor doesn’t like. So not to replace analysis with contrarianism, but i don’t feel compelled to verify further. Resistance News is a good source. The mention of Western and comprador nations trying to stir up Syrian and Lebanese groups “in an uprising to demand a ceasefire from the Resistance” is interesting, since I haven’t personally seen anything about that before now on my side of the language barrier. The latter paragraphs underscore one of the lessons of post-Vietnam military thought: the USA (and friends) have developed a theory rich and deeply analytical conception of how best to apply massive terror bombing and mechanized shock and awe against opponents without air defense. They have now taken the existence of complex theory as evidence that this must work, which is a blindness that can be exploited. Unfortunately, this blindness does not change the mass death and destruction the “Western way of war” will bring.

i have an early shift today, so i will be posting the other articles later.

A discussion of what seem to be Zelensky’s future diplomatic plans. The author, Mr. Bhadrakumar, is a professional diplomat who writes about foreign affairs, but he is not a Marxist. He talks about Zelensky’s continued purge and the three point plan he intends to present to Biden. To the second half of the article, some milbloggers think Zelensky’s plan is an intentional over-ask. Zelensky will get his ‘betarayal’ from the West, and pivot to negotiations and conceding the status quo, at least. With that possibility in mind, the first part of the article suggests that perhaps Zelensky is legitimately trying to break with the CIA. They’re certainly not the only people in Ukraine credibly threatening Zelensky’s life. https://www.indianpunchline.com/zelenskys-victory-plan-is-his-survival-kit/

An exclusive report on electronic warfare measures affecting commercial flights. GPS spoofing is affecting airlines around the world (but only people in the West could be reached for comment). Companies, regulators, and pilots are split on what to do. It’s worth noting that as flying gets more stressful or dangerous, there are already major pilot shortages in USamerica from Covid, expensive training, and mandatory retirement at 65. The Wall Street Journal does produce original journalism. Their ideology is known. Functional air travel is in the interests of everyone, especially journalists. i did not read the comments and i don’t think people should. https://archive.md/RztnK

A very good analysis of Mexico-USA-China relations. It is quite long. It goes over AMLO’s judicial reform and the USA attempts to stifle it. The DEA are doing what, in another country, one might call “election interference”. In response, AMLO has been talking more with China. On the liberal/ diplomatic side of things, there are a lot of statements from diplomats, which are nice to read because sometimes i forget what real diplomacy sounds like. On the material side of things, it’s worth noting most Mexican imports from China are to be either assembled and then shipped to the USA or to be shipped to the USA to dodge tariffs. Mexico and China are the two largest exporters to the USA, and are competing to sell products. On the other hand, the USA has no answer or equivalent to the Belt and Road Initiative. A transoceanic railway link from the Gulf to the Pacific could compete with the Panama Canal, and all of the investment in it is Chinese. Chinese cars and electronics are gaining market share, and BYD is promising a dealership in every state and one factory, somewhere. The article concludes with a quote from Forbes Mexico, which really shows how outrageous recent USamerican actions have been. It is a further example of USamerican arrogance in the face of a changing world. When confronted with things not going as they plan or desire, they can never adjust the plan or cooperate. The ruling class of these times can only reach to violence, tariffs, and threats. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/beijing-and-mexico-focus-on-deepening-cooperation-as-bilateral-trade-surges-to-record-levels.html

i love prof devereaux, but please please please for your own sake do not read anything he has written that is not on that website and about either tv shows or history or academia. extreme, content warning worthy liberalism lies within every article he writes about foreign policy and ukraine and politics. he actually wrote an article about liberalism, and you should not read it because his history and how much academia sucks stuff is really good