mkultrawide

It I had to guess how the ladder would theoretically be climbed, it would be Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, Azerbaijan, KSA, in that order. I'm not sure if they would attack Egypt, and I think as long as Oman doesn't allow the US to launch any attacks from their territory, it would the only GCC country to avoid an attack by way of actually having fairly good relations with Iran already.

I don't think they will go after the GCC/Azeris all at once, at least not at first, unless the Israeli response is just a huge escalation. My guess is they go after Bahrain first. It's the smallest GCC country and one of the few that recognizes Israel. UAE is another possibility. My guess is the Saudis and Azeris are probably last on the list.

CW: Dead Bodies

https://x.com/h0m3r02/status/1841875987715530914

Didn't this used to be an emote?

Other people were pointing this out on Twitter, but I'm skeptical about what this means, since Nasrallah was very clear that there would be no Hezbollah ceasefire without one in Gaza.

Those aren't machine guns. They look like large bore assault rifles or possibly semi-auto shotguns.

I am once again asking President Putin to give Hezbollah S-400s.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/inside-iran-russia-tensions-over-azerbaijans-zangezur-corridor

https://eurasianet.org/order-restored-to-iranian-russian-relations-after-geopolitical-row

August visit was probably about some sort of weapons deal. Iranian drones are still useful to the Russians and I'm sure Iran wants it's S-400s. September was about Lavrov putting his foot in his mouth and the Iranians letting Russia know that the Zangezur corridor is a red line for them.

I'm seeing some other twitter reports that they struck Jableh, nearby the base, or that they might have hit a Syrian weapons depot. Probably going to take a few hours at least for us to hear what was hit. I agree that Israel is the much more likely culprit, though.

Western civilians might be able to buy that the HTS isn't controlled by Turkey, but I'm skeptical that the Russians are going to buy that. Russia has the ability to cause a lot of problems for Turkey, even if they are tied up in Ukraine. How much plastic explosives would it really take for the PKK to put the country into chaos?

These attacks sound fairly sustained and intense. I can beleive Ukrainians sneaking into Syria and firing off a drone or two. This sounds like a lot more than that, which is why I would skeptical that they have launched this from somewhere that is controlled by the Syrian government. Cypress would technically be another option. Would need to have a better idea of where the first interceptions were and the direction they were flying.

I mean, looking at the map, the area that makes the most sense from within Syria is one of the Turkish controlled areas. Maybe they are with the SDF or down with the Americans near Jordan, but Idlib would be make the most sense. That watermelon seller must have lost his fucking mind if he's letting Ukrainians attack Russia from Idlib.

Where would Ukraine even be operating from here? This seems like the Israelis.

The Israelis attacking a Russian airbase seems nuts to me, because Russia probably has more ability to infiltrate the Israeli state (and has likely already done so) than any other global super power, simply by nature of so many Russian Jews having immigrated there.