Improve The News

• French Pres. Emmanuel Macron on Thursday said that he had "no doubt" Russia will attempt to target the 2024 Paris Olympics. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This is the first time Macron has explicitly acknowledged the possibility of foreign threats to the security of the games, which will take place against the complex backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza conflicts. Ukrainska Pravda
• Macron hasn't ruled out placing European troops in Ukraine. Though the leader hasn't taken an openly hostile stance against Moscow, he has claimed the Kremlin is running a disinformation campaign across the continent. The Straits Times
• Macron's comments come after Russia's defense minister suggested that the French special services had a role in last month's deadly Moscow concert hall attack, in which at least 145 were killed. ABC News
• There's speculation that Russia may repeat actions taken in 1984, when it boycotted the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics and held its own "Friendship Games" with 49 nations. The Mirror
• The International Olympic Committee has suspended Russia from the 2024 Games. However, Russian athletes are allowed to compete as neutrals as long as they don't show support for Moscow's military campaign in Ukraine. Channels Television

Anti-Russia narrative:

• The war in Ukraine adds another layer to fears that the Paris Olympics could be attacked or exploited by dictatorial regimes like Russia for propaganda purposes. France is evaluating terrorist threats ahead of the event following the recent attack on a Moscow concert hall. Their strong security measures aside, French officials acknowledge the broader geopolitical tensions and potential for cyber-attacks.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Russia has no plans to disrupt the upcoming Olympics, and suggestions that Moscow has some scheme to interrupt the competition is propagandist vilification. Russian athletes have the right to equal treatment and the onus for maintaining the safety of competitors and spectators should rest with the host nation — France.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There's an 8% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Somalia on Thursday expelled Ethiopia's ambassador and closed the East African country's consulates in Hargeisa, Somaliland's capital, and in Garowe, the capital of the semi-autonomous Puntland. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Somalia's Foreign Ministry ordered Mukhtar Mohamed to leave the country within 72 hours after the office of Prime Minister Abdi Barre accused Ethiopia of violating the country's sovereignty by meddling in its internal affairs. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The decision to expel Mohamed and close Ethiopia's consulate offices was reportedly taken over a controversial Somaliland port deal. It comes a day after a Puntland delegation traveled to Ethiopia to expand bilateral ties. Addis Standard
• Puntland's information ministry rejected the consulate's closure, accusing Mogadishu of attempting to exercise control over "a territory it does not govern," while Somaliland's foreign ministry described the decision as "a mere dream." Voice of America
• Puntland has withdrawn from Somalia's federal system, stating it would govern itself independently. On Sunday, it rejected constitutional amendments passed by Somalia's federal parliament. The East African
• Ethiopia-Somalia tensions escalated in January when Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, allowing the landlocked country to lease a coastal strip and set up a naval base and a commercial port. France 24

Narrative A:

• Given the illegal deal between Ethiopia and the separatist Somaliland region, the Somali government's decision is justified. Neither the AU nor the UN recognizes Somaliland as a separate political entity, and the US also denounces Ethiopia's move. If Addis Ababa goes ahead with its plans to finally gain access to the Gulf of Aden, the entire region will destabilize. The only way to resolve the crisis is for Ethiopia to abandon the Somaliland deal.
  MODERN DIPLOMACY

Narrative B:

• Shutting down Ethiopia's embassy and consulates is an outrageous overreaction by Mogadishu that will further fuel bilateral tensions. The port deal is a sovereign decision by two independent nations, and by simply not recognizing it, Mogadishu disregards international law and the inherent right to self-determination. Somalia's stance may have dire regional repercussions, and Mogadishu should seek a diplomatic solution rather than damage diplomatic relations.
  ADDIS STANDARD

Narrative C:

• The escalating Somali-Ethiopian conflict needs to be seen in the context of the growing geopolitical rivalry in the Horn of Africa and its strategic location on the Red Sea. The Gulf States, Turkey, Iran as well as the US, China, and Russia are all involved and Ethiopia's desire to gain access to the sea and the resulting dispute could exacerbate the ongoing Red Sea crisis. All parties need to redouble their efforts to avoid further escalation and promote regional peace and prosperity.
  AL JAZEERA (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 33% chance that Ethiopia will formally recognize Somaliland in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Former Conservative Foreign Office minister Sir Alan Duncan is being investigated by his party for comments he made criticizing politicians from the Conservative Friends of Israel (CFI) group. Sky News
• During an interview with the radio show LBC, Sir Duncan claimed that there were many at the "top of our own politics" who "refuse to condemn settlements," and consequently "are not supporters of international law." twitter.com
• Duncan also said Security Minister Tom Tugendhat and former Cabinet Minister Eric Pickles should be kicked out of the government, and accused Pickles and fellow Tory politician Stuart Polak of "exercising the interests of another country." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Duncan, who stepped down as an MP in the 2019 general election, also referred to Michael Gove, Oliver Dowden, Suella Braverman, Robert Jenrick, and Priti Patel as "extremists" for not denouncing Israeli settlements in Palestine. The Telegraph
• He further argued that the CFI has been "doing the bidding" of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, alleging the group was both "bypassing all proper processes of government" and "exerci[zing] undue influence" in UK politics. twitter.com
• A source from the Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) said Duncan "has been informed that he is under investigation by the party," adding that such investigations "generally take a couple of weeks and can result in expulsion." Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Comments like those made by Sir Duncan go directly against the principles of the Conservative party and the British nation. Some may have forgotten that Israel, an ally of the UK, has faced the threat of losing their country since long before Oct. 7 and that, following that attack, almost 150K have been displaced from their homes. Benjamin Netanyahu's policies, which align with the UK's policy of deterring Iran, are very popular among Israelis and should be pursued and unambiguously supported by Western allies until Hamas is completely destroyed.
  THE TELEGRAPH

Anti-Israel narrative:

• If Sir Duncan is indeed removed from his party, he will become the first Tory to ever face punishment for defending international law. While it's politicians like Tom Tugendhat who are on the record condemning calls for Israel to follow the law, it's people like Sir Duncan, who call out atrocities when they see them, that face government backlash. If the Tory government fails to back these legitimate criticisms, then it can no longer claim to represent the values of the party.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 13% chance that Tom Tugendhat will become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Kuwaiti citizens on Thursday voted in the country's first national elections under the new Emir, Sheikh Mishal al-Ahmad al-Sabah, amid hopes to end a years-long gridlock between the National Assembly and the royal family. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The vote — the fourth in as many years — comes after Sheikh Mishal assumed power last December following the death of his half-brother, Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah. US News & World Report
• In his inaugural speech, Sheikh Mishal criticized both parliament and the royal-appointed cabinet, announcing an era of "reform." In February, he dissolved the assembly over alleged constitutional violations, including "offensive and inappropriate language." France 24
• Though Kuwait's assembly is one of the more powerful of those elected in the Middle East, the Persian Gulf country restricts political parties and candidates from running for the assembly as independents. Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• There have been concerns of low voter turnout in this latest ballot, in which an estimated 835K eligible citizens chose from a selection of 200 candidates to fill 50 seats in Kuwait's National Assembly. Voter turnout in the country's last election was 51%. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Once a new government is formed, Sheikh Mishal is expected to push elected officials to pass various economic reforms, including a debt law that would allow Kuwait to access international markets and reduce its reliance on oil revenues. US News & World Report

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Kuwait is a shining beacon of democracy that serves as an example to its neighbors in the Middle East. Kuwaiti voters are encouraged to participate actively in elections, and the country's separation of powers creates lively debate and compromise that enables optimal governance. Sheikh Mishal is a reform-oriented leader who wants to work with parliament to pass the necessary legislation that will move Kuwait forward.
  KUNA

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Despite being blessed with some of the world's richest oil reserves, Kuwait can't escape political turmoil — and the socioeconomic troubles that result from such gridlock. While its National Assembly has more influence than similar bodies in other Gulf monarchies, the Sheikh still has the authority to act as an autocrat and push his agenda. After voting every year and not seeing any results, Kuwaitis are rightfully fatigued — this disenfranchisement emphasizes the decline of Kuwait's democracy.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 12 countries in OPEC on Dec. 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The sons of entertainment mogul Sean 'Diddy' Combs, whose homes were raided by Homeland Security last week as part of a sex-trafficking investigation, have hired lawyer Jeffrey Lichtman, who has represented high-profile clients including El Chapo and John Gotti Jr. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• During the raid, armed officers confiscated firearms and cell phones belonging to Combs. They also handcuffed two of his sons, Christian and Justin, leading their mother, Misa Hylton, and Lichtman to accuse the police of "excessive use of force." NewsNation
• Combs faces civil suits related to four sexual abuse allegations from three women and one man. He has not been charged. Allegations include his ex-girlfriend who claims she was trafficked and assaulted over ten years. Another woman claims she was drugged and abused in 1991. Independent (a) (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Other allegations include those of producer Rodney “lil Rod” Jones who also implicated actor Cuba Gooding Jr. in the alleged abuse. Combs has denied all accusations and called the raid on his homes a "gross overuse of military-level force." Independent (b) (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Citing the fact that "neither Combs nor any of his family members have been arrested," Lichtman in a statement called the investigation a "witch hunt," adding that "an advanced, coordinated media presence" has led to a "premature rush to judgment." The Mirror

Narrative A:

• This entire story has been blown out of proportion because an unnecessarily violent raid was filmed. There have been no arrests and there's no evidence of wrongdoing. Combs' celebrity will inspire the media to keep this story alive, but this witch hunt should eventually blow over.
  SMARTCORETECH

Narrative B:

• This story isn't a media creation, it's the result of decades of Combs' abuse and shady nondisclosure agreements finally coming to light. After years of not facing the music, Combs' clock has finally run out and neither he nor the government will be able to sweep his crimes under the rug.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

• North Korean state media reported on Wednesday that a new hypersonic solid-fuel intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), the Hwasong-16B, was successfully tested. NK News
• Launched off its east coast on Tuesday, the projectile landed in the waters between Pyongyang and Japan after flying 372 miles (598 km), according to the South Korean military. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• While this flight performance is inferior to the 621 miles (999 km) that North's official media reported, Seoul conceded that Pyongyang has improved its technologies. It's unclear, however, whether the warheads can survive atmospheric re-entry. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• North Korea's Kim Jong Un is said to have supervised the test and he declared the new missile a key piece of his nuclear deterrent against "enemies," including the US, South Korea, and Japan. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Pyongyang said in January that it tested a hypersonic IRBM, which reportedly can target Guam and potentially Alaska. Hypersonic weapons are designed to exceed five times the speed of sound and be maneuvered in flight. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The race to develop hypersonic weapons — which includes many Asian nations — is concerning because these missiles would be able to avoid missile shields and early-warning systems, reducing countries' reaction time in the face of an attack. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Pro-North Korea narrative:

• Though Kim may seem like an irrational actor, he's simply using the only leverage he has in dealing with South Korea and the US. His nuclear ambitions are designed to seek political gains and sanctions relief after successive American administrations derailed diplomatic routes to denuclearization.
  ANTIWAR (LR: 5 CP: 1)

Anti-North Korea Narrative:

• Although analysis of this missile test is ongoing, Pyongyang's actions must be condemned and North Korea must pay a price for continuing to advance its missile technology. If the North is hoping to impact South Korea's upcoming elections, it's probably out of luck because this launch wasn't that impressive.
  THE JAPAN TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 20% chance that there will be war between North Korea and South Korea before January 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• During a Thursday phone call between US Pres. Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden reportedly warned Israel's premier that US policy toward Israel and the war in Gaza will change if it does not implement "steps to address civilian harm." The White House's statement did not include any details regarding a potential shift in policy. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The US has expressed concern about the worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza and a potential Israeli operation into Rafah. A meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs reportedly became heated as the two discussed Israel's plans to evacuate civilians before an operation. The Telegraph
• The call came after negotiations resumed again earlier this week, with Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh saying on Wednesday that the group would stick to its conditions regarding a hostage deal with Israel — including the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the return of the displaced to their homes, among other goals. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Indeed, a potential Rafah operation has generated controversy, with Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) saying that he would vote to condition aid to Israel if it were to enter Rafah without making "provision for civilians or for humanitarian aid." Axios
• Meanwhile, Israeli outlet +972 Magazine reported on Wednesday that Israel has been using an AI-based program named "Lavender" to mark "all suspected operatives in the military wings of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)." The report claimed that the system flagged 37K Palestinians as suspected militants — and their homes — for possible air strikes. +972 Magazine
• The report also claimed that the military purposefully targeted militants at night when they were expected to be at home with their families, as this made it "easier to locate the individuals in their private houses." The rest of the report detailed how the system functions and acquires targets. +972 Magazine

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Israel's war against Hamas is surely just, given the atrocities the group committed during its Oct. 7 attack. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. Israel must take into account the innocent civilians in Gaza who are trapped between the country's military machine and Hamas's terrorist fighters, as Israel risks pushing Palestinians into Hamas' hands if it does not work to ensure their safety.
  NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hamas's military capabilities and infrastructure must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security. To eliminate this capacity for terror, Israel has been forced to use blunt tools to route Hamas forces, as they are so deeply dug into Gaza's civil infrastructure. The international community consistently parrots Hamas propaganda, as Israel worked from the get-go to deliver aid to Gaza and find a solution to end this war.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. There already is more than enough evidence to suggest that Israeli forces have consistently targeted civilians, even foreign citizens, in the country's campaign to starve the people of Gaza into submission. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, likes to wax about civilian casualties, it must instead exert more pressure to end this war for good.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Six judges of the Islamabad High Court have claimed that the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan's spy agency, has been coercing them to influence their verdicts in cases involving former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In a letter sent to the Supreme Judicial Council, the judges alleged that the ISI was meddling in judicial proceedings "to seek a certain outcome." In one of the cases, the judges claimed they were forced to hear an appeal against Khan even after the majority rejected it. Voice of America
• The letter stated that the ISI placed hidden cameras in one judge's lounge and bedroom, while alleged ISI operatives kidnapped and tortured another judge's relative into making false statements. Islamabad said it had established a commission to investigate. EasternEye
• However, after the head of the commission recused himself, the Supreme Court constituted a seven-member bench to probe the alleged interference of intelligence agencies in judicial affairs made in the judges' letter. GEO
• Since Tuesday, threat letters with a toxic powder have reportedly been sent to more than a dozen senior judges of the Islamabad High Court, the Lahore High Court, and Pakistan's Supreme Court — including Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• After losing a confidence vote in April 2022, Khan has been charged in over 100 cases and convicted with sentences ranging from 10 to 14 years imprisonment for corruption, selling state gifts, and revealing state secrets. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• The judges bear witness to what is wrong with Pakistan and its democracy. The military and its intelligence services conspired with the US to have Imran Khan wrongfully dismissed from power because he refused to act as their puppet. They then fabricated allegations and pressed the courts to imprison him to guarantee he never again represented the will of the people. Will the Pakistani people stand by as the military steals what's left of Pakistan's democracy?
  THE ECONOMIC TIMES

Narrative B:

• The army neither interferes in judicial affairs nor uses intimidatory tactics to coerce the judges. Khan, who used his position to undermine democracy, attempted to dissolve parliament to avoid a no-confidence vote, which led to his removal. He is currently using his position to push Pakistan towards civil war. The government and the judiciary must exercise caution to prevent the current political turmoil from escalating further.
  AL JAZEERA (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 40% chance Pakistan will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Transcripts of the closed-door interviews of three US Dept. of State officials regarding the Aug. 2021 US withdrawal from Afghanistan have been revealed. The testimony comes from the House Foreign Affairs Committee probe of the withdrawal. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The three officials, John Bass, Jim DeHart, and Jayne Howell, said that while plans for a "noncombatant evacuation operation" began in April or May 2021, no such blueprint was in place when they arrived the following August after the Taliban took over Kabul. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• DeHart said they had to "create from scratch" a plan to get "priority people" to the Kabul Airport. Howell said the Taliban broke its agreement to "admit Americans in a controlled fashion" by allowing "tens of thousands of people" into the Abbey Gate passenger terminal. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Regarding their experience coordinating with the military, unlike with the State Department, Howell described her communication as being "absolutely lockstep"; DeHart said the "chain of command" was not "unclear at any time." CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• This follows testimony from retired Gen. Mark Millie, who blamed the State Department and White House. He claimed that if he could have a "do-over," he would've "brought the embassy and the State Department out with the military by the middle of July." Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Retired General Frank McKenzie said they "had forces in the region as early as" July 9 "but we could do nothing" since the State Department wouldn't issue evacuation plans. Millie's request to retain 2.5K troops to maintain control of Bagram Air Base was denied by Pres. Biden. NY1

Republican narrative:

• The revelations from these testimonies have already exposed Biden's failures, but it's important to note that these witnesses were approved by the White House to speak to the committee. Biden put completely inexperienced State Department personnel in charge of an incredibly fragile situation — imagine what revelations would emerge if the committee was allowed to enquire about the people Biden has not approved to speak.
  NEWSMAX.COM

Democratic narrative:

• Recent reports have certainly cast a shadow over the Biden State Department, but it's important to remember that the plans for a troop withdrawal were established under the Trump administration. In 2020, before Biden took office, Trump made a deal with the Taliban that led to the eventual confusion during the 2021 withdrawal. This was a terrible tragedy for America, but to blame the Biden administration that was forced between a rock and a hard place is unfair.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 46% chance that Taliban-controlled Afghanistan will be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• More than 150 people, including 70 current and former prison workers, have asked Missouri Gov. Mike Parson to grant clemency to Brian Dorsey, who is scheduled to be executed next week for murdering his cousin and her husband in 2006. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Dorsey on Tuesday filed an appeal with the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS), arguing that his attorneys provided "grossly deficient representation in a capital case." Appointed through the Missouri State Public Defender, his lawyers were each paid a flat fee of $12K. STLtoday.com
• Missouri no longer allows flat fee compensation for public defenders. Dorsey’s current counsel says his old lawyers did not provide him with a sufficient level of representation. Yahoo News
• According to figures from federal courts, Dorsey’s lawyers were paid $3.37 per hour if they spent the standard 3,557 hours on his case. However, no one disputes the fact that Dorsey killed Sarah Bonnie, and her husband, before sexually assaulting her. Los Angeles Times
• The Missouri Supreme Court upheld Dorsey’s conviction and life sentence in 2009. Retired Judge Michael Wolff, who served on the bench at the time, wrote in an op-ed that he regrets his decision and he was “unaware of how compromised" the lawyers were. STLPR
• Barring an intervention, Dorsey will be executed April 9. Parson has never granted a request for clemency. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Parson should grant Dorsey clemency. Prison workers, and even the judge who upheld his death sentence, are unified in their belief that Dorsey was failed by the justice system. Dorsey has been a model citizen for the past 18 years, and he shouldn't die because he wasn't allowed proper counsel.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• This outpouring of support for Dorsey is turning him from a cold-blooded murderer into a victim, but Parson can't let it affect him. No one is questioning whether Dorsey committed these heinous crimes and his conviction has been upheld multiple times. Dorsey must be punished for what he did.
  AGO

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that capital punishment will be legal in at least 39% of US states in 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to the Carbon Majors report published Thursday, just 57 fossil fuel and cement producers have been linked to 80% of the world's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions since 2016. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While many governments and companies set strict emissions targets to combat climate change, a small group of emitters produced and burned more fossil fuels between 2016 and 2022, raising CO2 emissions. Offshore Engineer Magazine
• Among the world's 122 biggest historical climate polluters, the researchers found that 65% of state-owned entities and 55% of investor-owned companies had expanded production in the seven years after the Paris Climate Agreement was signed. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The world's top three state-owned CO2-emitting firms are Saudi Aramco, Russia's Gazprom, and the National Iranian Oil Company. ExxonMobil, BP, and Chevron lead the list of biggest investor-owned CO2-emitting companies. Axios
• In its long-term analysis, the researchers said that investor-owned companies accounted for 31% of all emissions, while state-owned companies were linked to 33% and nation-states for 36%. China's coal production accounted for 14% of historic global CO2 emissions, the highest. Carbonmajors
• In 2015, 194 world leaders agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions to prevent global temperatures from rising by more than 1.5°C. However, according to the independent Climate Action Tracker, the world is on track for around 2.1°C of warming by 2100. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• It's shocking that so few powerful corporations and multinationals are the leading drivers of the global climate crisis. The cohort continues to profit from extracting fossil fuels when it should be slowing down production. This report's findings will allow international institutions to hold the culprits accountable for climate damages.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• This report is sensationalizing a picture that could change in the future. Companies worldwide have been taking voluntary action to meet net zero emissions targets and invest in renewable energy, including the world's biggest oil and gas producers agreeing to cut methane emissions from their wells and drilling by more than 80% by 2030. This is all happening despite the debate on climate change not being settled.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that at least 80.8% of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to the latest Twitter Files release, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has pushed a "sweeping" crackdown on free speech that sought to undermine democracy in the South American country. Michael Shellenberger on X
• The investigation results posted Wednesday by Michael Shellenberger claim that de Moraes and the Superior Electoral Court he leads made abusive demands to the social media platform in the lead-up to the 2022 presidential elections. Michael Shellenberger on X
• The reported unusual requests included the court mandating the platform to supply personal details about users who mentioned the pro-printed vote hashtag #VotoDemocraticoAuditavel and attempting to censor supporters and allies of then-Pres. Jair Bolsonaro. Michael Shellenberger on X
• This comes a little more than a year after Elon Musk, owner of social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, observed that de Moraes' actions were "extremely concerning." New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• By that time, Brazil-based journalist Glenn Greenwald had revealed a secret order from de Moraes for Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and TikTok to block individuals that allegedly incited or supported the Jan. 8, 2023, riots. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• A DataFolha poll last week found that approval and disapproval ratings of the Supreme Court are about even, at 29% and 28%, respectively. Folha de S.Paulo

Right narrative:

• This release further reasserts that the Brazilian Supreme Court, and specifically de Moraes, poses a significant threat to the country's democracy amid a crackdown on free speech unseen since the 1988 Constitution came into effect. It's outrageous that the judiciary has consistently silenced dissent without due process.
  WALL STREET JOURNAL (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• Yet again, Musk's Twitter Files promote far-right allegations as if they're the objective truth — and as if freedom of speech was an absolute right worldwide. Tweets must have consequences, especially when extremists undermine the democratic order, so de Moraes' actions made him a democracy crusader — not a tyrant.
  THE NEW REPUBLIC

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 12% chance that Brazil will experience a successful coup d'etat before Jan. 1, 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Republican National Committee (RNC) and former Pres. Donald Trump's campaign Wednesday announced they've raised $65.6M in the month of March, taking their total cash in hand to $93.1M. gop.com
• This comes after the RNC and the Trump campaign raised $21.6M in February. The two groups merged last month after the former president became the presumptive GOP nominee for November's presidential election. Bloomberg.com
• Because the campaign and RNC reached a joint fundraising agreement, the maximum an individual can donate to the Trump campaign has increased from $3.3K to around $800K. Trump will host a fundraiser Saturday, with per-donor goals of $250K and $814.6K per person. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Trump's fundraising agreement with the RNC over proceeds from the upcoming dinner dictates that the first $11.6K of any donations will go to the presumptive nominee's campaign ($6.6K) and Save America PAC ($5K) respectively, with the next $413K reaching the RNC. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• RNC Chairman Michael Whatley in a statement said Trump has "created a fundraising juggernaut," with the two groups "focused on victory." gop.com
• Pres. Joe Biden and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) have yet to announce their fundraising total for March, but the campaign ended February with $97.5M cash in hand and announced over $25M had been raised in a single fundraiser last month. axios.com

Republican narrative:

• Despite the deep state's best attempts to stop Trump, his campaign is only getting stronger. These fundraising statistics are staggering, and it's no surprise this comes following Trump's recent changes in the party's leadership and direction. Trump is moving closer and closer to a White House return.
  THE WESTERN JOURNAL

Democratic narrative:

• Biden has a clear fundraising advantage that will lead him to victory. This will allow the president to project his message further than the Trump campaign, including to disillusioned former Trump voters, and defeat a deeply divided Republican Party at the polls in November.
  MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 49% chance that Trump will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Human Rights Watch (HRW) claimed on Wednesday that Colombia and Panama have failed to protect hundreds of thousands of migrants and asylum seekers traveling northbound through the dangerous Darién Gap. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The rights group claimed in a 110-page report that 1.5K cases of sexual violence have been reported since 2021 along the key corridor for migrants, accusing both countries of not doing enough to hold perpetrators accountable. barrons.com
• HRW has urged them to coordinate a humanitarian response to improve security and allow more assistance from international groups in the thick rainforest, which has no roads. Los Angeles Times
• The organization further exhorted Panama specifically to reconsider its recent decision to block the medical charity Doctors Without Borders from its territory. Los Angeles Times
• Meanwhile, Colombia has been called on to prosecute the drug cartel Gulf Clan, which allegedly controls the Colombian side of the jungle and charges as much as $125 per migrant crossing into Panama. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This report comes days after Panama announced that over 109K irregular migrants passed through the Gap in the first quarter of 2024, up from around 87.3K during the same period in 2023 — the year when an all-time high of 520K individuals was recorded. Ticotimes

Left narrative:

• After several visits to the Darién Gap and interviews with migrants and government officials, HRW has revealed the extent of the horrors those on their way to a better life have to face in Darién Gap. No matter their reason for making this trek, it's the duty of Panama and Colombia to provide them with basic necessities like food, water, and healthcare. Allowing violent smugglers to bring migrants through the jungle is neither efficient nor moral.
  HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH

Right narrative:

• All the humanitarian rhetoric coming from governments and NGOs is a facade to hide their true goal — encouraging as many illegal immigrants as possible to reach the US border. It seems that the US has sent hundreds of millions of dollars to Panama and Colombia not to help stop these waves of migrants — who are coming from as near as Haiti and as far as China — but to help those governments guide these illegal convoys more efficiently on their way to the US.
  CIS.ORG

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters, will be at least 5.8%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Mexican Pres. Andrés Manuel López Obrador has expressed his sadness over the murder of his fellow Morena party member and mayoral candidate for Celaya, Bertha Gaytán, on Monday — the first day of her campaign. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The outgoing president offered condolences to her family, and stated that episodes of violence against political hopefuls ahead of the June elections are "very regrettable." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• At least 22 mayoral candidates have been murdered since September, compared to 32 in the previous local elections. While victims are distributed among all parties, most attacks target candidates challenging the incumbent. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Gaytán was killed in an attack that injured three others, including the city council candidate Adrián Guerrero, during a rally in the community of San Miguel Octopan. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Though allegedly unaware of such an attack threat, she had requested security assistance for her campaign. According to polls, Gaytán was the main challenger to Mayor Javier Mendoza. EL PAÍS English
• Celaya was ranked the world's most dangerous city last year, and the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel — which killed the son of Mayor Mendoza in 2022 and threatened Gaytán in the past — controls the area where the attack took place. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• It has been quite common in Mexico for criminal organizations to engage in pre-election violence at the municipal level as influence over local power is crucial to their business and much easier to hold than at a state or federal level. This was their latest — but certainly not their last — attempt to get their preferred candidate elected.
  MEXICO NEWS DAILY

Narrative B:

• While there is indeed a correlation between gang violence and political violence in some Mexican states, this oversimplification fails to explain how political violence can be high despite relatively low levels of gang-related crimes. Power dynamics and local-level disputes also contribute to this worrisome trend.
  RELIEFWEB

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 3% chance that the US will deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Protests in rebel-held northwestern Syria against Hay'et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which rules the enclave of Idlib and has influence in other areas, continued this week after beginning in late February. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Protesters, who oppose the government of Pres. Bashar al-Assad, have criticized HTS' internal security services, accusing them of mistreating prisoners and running "slaughterhouses." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• During demonstrations on March 15, which marked 13 years since the beginning of widespread anti-government protests in Syria in 2011, protesters called for the downfall of Assad and HTS' leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Late last month, HTS issued a resolution replacing the head of its security apparatus, Abu Ahmad Hudud, with Abu Abdullah Horan. Hudud is reportedly behind a wave of arrests of high-ranking HTS officials al-Jolani accused of sparking the protests. Al Mayadeen English
• The US State Department has designated both HTS and its previous iteration, the al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations. Though HTS denies any connection to the group, Washington claims it's a "vehicle to advance [al-Qaida's] position in the Syrian uprising." CSIS
• HTS, which has set up its own security apparatus as well as a civil administration in the Idlib region, is often accused of human rights abuses, including torture, sexual violence, and enforced disappearances. Voice of America

Narrative A:

• HTS, though often vilified in the West, is a reasonable organization that seeks to rule with legitimacy under serious constraints, such as a large refugee population, regular regime bombing, and foreign interference. Regardless of tragic incidents, HTS is committed to defending the Syrians from the Assad regime and upholding the principles of the Syrian Revolution.
  AL JAZEERA (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Narrative B:

• Syrians have demanded one thing since the beginning of their revolution — dignity. The dignity not to be tortured by security officials or called foreign agents for dreaming of a free Syria. Syrians will continue to agitate against all those who seek to control them, whether they be named Jolani or Assad.
  ENAB BALADI

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Since 2011, the internationally-recognized Syrian government has been locked into an existential struggle between the region's resistance and foreign-backed Jihadists. As protesters in northern Syria may now be realizing, Jolani and the rest of the terrorists that destroyed Syria are pawns for US interests in the region.
  AL MAYADEEN ENGLISH

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Syria will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by February 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• As the US-led NATO alliance marked 75 years since its founding in 1949 — doing so with flags, cake, and marching bands, alongside a message from the Secretary General about the importance of unity — Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Thursday that relations between Russia and the alliance "have now slipped to the level of direct confrontation." Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• NATO was "already involved in the conflict surrounding Ukraine [and] continues to move towards our borders and expand its military infrastructure towards our borders," Peskov said. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• At NATO headquarters in Brussels, where the alliance has this year taken on Sweden and Finland as new members — growing the bloc to 32 countries — NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: "We will continue to strengthen our alliance. And we will continue to work with our partners across the globe for peace and security." France 24
• This week's summit was attended by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and a larger commemoration of NATO's 75th anniversary is expected to be held in Washington this July. Associated Press (a) (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• He told the summit that decades of peace, alongside NATO's principles of "democracy, liberty, and the rule of law" were being threatened by those "who believe that might makes right…and who seek to redraw borders by force." marketwatch.com
• Coming as the Russia-Ukraine war entered into its third year, and following a grinding year where Ukraine faced shortages in both men and ammunition — precipitating the loss of Avdiivka and prompting wider Russian gains elsewhere in the Donetsk region — NATO allies are reportedly discussing a $100B military aid plan. Stoltenberg declined to comment. Associated Press (b) (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Amid Ukraine's difficult battlefield situation, this is the time for NATO to up its support for Ukraine — not leave the country hanging out to dry after three years of fighting. Nonetheless, neither NATO nor Russia wants the possibility of an all-out conflict between nuclear-armed states.
  ASSOCIATED PRESS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Ukraine narrative:

• Ukraine welcomes this NATO foreign ministers' summit, particularly as Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuelba and Stoltenberg will host another meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council. While voluntary contributions are welcome, Ukraine will seek to secure firmer and more long-term commitments as well.
  UKRAINSKA PRAVDA

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Throughout this conflict, and to the present day, Russia has only sought to protect its people, its future, and its sovereignty. Russia was forced to protect its interests in a weaponized way. Take for instance the heinous Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow last month. Its perpetrators, regardless of who their backers may be, want nothing more than to see the fall of Russia.
  TASS

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Due to the West's collective failure of seeking to expand NATO eastwards to Russia's borders, it started this war which has only resulted in Ukraine losing vast swaths of territory, as well as untold numbers of men and women. Rather than continue this foolish tactic and cause more destruction, Ukraine needs to push for peace.
  AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE (LR: 4 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 5% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• For the first time documented in a regularly occurring annual survey, a majority of Southeast Asians have said they would prefer to align with China over the US if forced to choose between the rival superpowers. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• According to the State of Southeast Asia 2024 survey published Tuesday by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 50.5% favored China, while 49.5% opted for the US. At 75.1%, Malaysia topped the countries with the highest preference for the PRC. theatlasnews.co
• The results showed a majority in the Philippines (83.3%) and Vietnam (79%) support the US over China, with Beijing's stance in the South China Sea being the biggest concern for Filipinos (90.2%) and Vietnamese (72.5%). CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Furthermore, 38.2% of respondents said US engagement in Southeast Asia has decreased under Pres. Biden, while 67.4% voiced concern about China's growing economic influence in the region. Radio Free Asia
• The survey was conducted between Jan. 3 and Feb. 23, and it included 1,994 respondents from academia, businesses, governments, civil society, and the media. Last year, 38.9% of respondents picked China, 61.1% favored the US. Asia News Network
• According to the survey, Japan remains the region's most trusted power, with 58.9% of respondents expressing confidence in the country, followed by the US (42.4%), the EU (41.5%), China (24.8%), and India (24.2%). The Straits Times

Pro-China narrative:

• The findings are impressive evidence that the era of US hegemony is finally ending. People now know that China is the region's most influential economic and geopolitical power and trust that Beijing's relations with ASEAN countries will continue to improve. Meanwhile, there's widespread concern about the US' growing strategic and political regional footprint. The world has entered an era of multipolarity, and China will continue to be a driving force behind this trend.
  CGTN

Anti-China narrative:

• The results are not as clear-cut as the headlines suggest. Rather, they indicate a lack of unified preference for China over the US in the notoriously divided ASEAN bloc. While Beijing's economic influence is growing, many countries fear its expansionist ambitions and are tightening their US defense ties. China's growing influence is acknowledged but doesn't translate into approval, and as a trusted partner, Washington is ready to support the region in bolstering its internal resilience.
  TIME (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 10% chance that there will be a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• World Central Kitchen (WCK) founder José Andrés on Wednesday accused Israeli forces in Gaza of killing seven of its aid workers by targeting them "systematically, car by car." Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While Israel has apologized over the incident, calling it a "grave mistake," Andrés alleged that Monday's military strike wasn't accidental as he claimed the IDF had been informed of his staff's movements. BBC News (a)
• Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also admitted that the Israeli military had hit "innocent people," while WCK said those killed included Australian, Canadian, Polish, British, American, and Palestinian nationals. BBC News (b)
• IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has also issued an apology for Monday's deadly strike on WCK's aid convoy in Gaza, claiming that it was a result of a "misidentification." The Times of Israel
• However, WCK has sought an independent probe into Monday's strike targeting its staff to ascertain if "they were carried out intentionally or otherwise violated international law." POLITICO
• WCK, the US-based food charity, was founded in 2010 to provide food aid during conflicts and disasters worldwide. In 2015, Andrés was awarded the National Humanities Medal by then-US Pres. Barack Obama. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Anti-Israel narrative:

• The deadly Israeli strike on World Central Kitchen staff has led to the suspension of operations by the NGO and other humanitarian groups in Gaza despite widespread starvation and other desperate conditions. This ought to renew calls for accountability from Israel as well as insistence on a thorough investigation into the incident, as it shows Israel continues to defy norms and violate cardinal international treaties.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Israel has acknowledged responsibility for Monday's accidental airstrike, but the real blame for this tragedy must be placed on Hamas for instigating the conflict. The IDF has maintained efforts to minimize civilian deaths despite Hamas operating in densely populated areas to exploit confusion and provoke lethal errors.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Narrative C:

• The number of attacks on aid workers has risen globally since the late 1990s, as conflict has shifted to urban areas, posing increasing risks to civilians and aid workers. Local activists in these regions face the highest risks but receive less attention than foreign volunteers. Gaza's conflict has complicated aid work, raising questions about future humanitarian efforts.
  THE CONVERSATION (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the US will give at least $3.1B in aid to Israel in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Benny Gantz, a member of Israel's war cabinet, on Wednesday called for elections to be held in September to "maintain unity" and "renew trust" in the government. Gantz said he had discussed the issue with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposes holding early elections. The Times of Israel (a)
• Netanyahu's Likud party rejected Gantz's call — stating that the government would stay in place "until all the goals of the war are achieved" — and argued that elections would lead to "paralysis and division" during "this fateful moment." The Times of Israel (b)
• Gantz, insisting that Netanyahu must "publicly support" the families of hostages still held by Hamas, claimed that a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia — which he said would include "the establishment of an international directorate for the Gaza Strip headed by Arab states" — was "within reach." Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority (PA), which partially administers the West Bank alongside Israel, sent a letter requesting membership to the UN as an independent member state. The UN rejected a similar request in 2011, but changed its "non-member observer entity" status to "non-member observer state" a year later. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Though the US reportedly favors a "reformed" PA to run Gaza after the war, Israeli officials have typically avoided including the Authority in their post-war plans. Some Israeli officials have openly rejected proposals including the return of a PA to Gaza or the establishment of a Palestinian state. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Earlier this week, Hamas accused the PA of sending security officers into northern Gaza disguised as security for aid distribution and logistics. Hamas said six members of the PA team were arrested and that the rest would be soon found, though it hasn't provided any evidence for these claims. Al Arabiya

Left narrative:

• Netanyahu is losing this war, and Israelis must find a way to oust him from power. Whether his right-wing coalition collapses, the Knesset enacts a vote of "constructive no confidence," the opposition withdraws from the unity government, or demonstrators put the heat on him, Netanyahu can't be allowed to drive Israel into the abyss. With Netanyahu's popularity at an all-time low, now might be the time to find a new premier.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• The aftermath of Oct. 7 has presented a challenge to the US and Israel, but the rhetoric being deployed against Netanyahu is unreasonable. New elections would essentially paralyze the war effort and weaken Israel to a point where it could very well lose this existential struggle with terror. The only winner resulting from the left's attack on Netanyahu is Hamas.
  ISRAEL HAYOM

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• The debate in Israel, the US, and the West more broadly is completely divorced from the material reality of the Palestinian people, who care little about which brand of Israeli leader is bombing them and which corrupt technocrat is chosen to run the PA. Palestinians want to be free in their homeland, yet their dreams are purposefully ignored by US and Israeli leaders who would rather force Palestinians into submission.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 35% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Turkey has validated the victory of Abdullah Zeydan of the pro-Kurdish Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) as mayor of the city of Van after his initial disqualification sparked protests. Barrons
• Zeydan won Sunday's municipal polls in the eastern city with 55% of the vote, but a court disqualified his candidacy at the last moment, as he had previously spent time in prison. ABC News
• Zeydan was arrested in 2016 for criticizing Turkish military action taken against Kurdish militants in the southeast. Zeydan's disqualification cleared the path for Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party's (AKP) candidate to take the post. Le Monde.fr
• Zeydan's removal sparked protests on Wednesday, as hundreds hit the streets in areas including Batman and Hakkari, clashing with police. Yahoo News
• Zeydan's party then appealed to Turkey's High Electoral Board which, on Wednesday, decided to reinstate him, marking a major setback to Erdoğan's AKP. ABC News
• Turkey's main opposition party, Republican People’s Party (CHP), won a plurality of the vote, holding on to Istanbul and the capital Ankara as well as gaining other major cities. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• The brazen disqualification of Abdullah Zeydan was clearly an attempted political coup against him and his DEM party by Islamic hardliner Pres. Recip Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP. It is likely that only the international scrutiny that this move attracted over the country's electoral process and minority rights prompted Zeydan's reinstatement. This farcical episode only showcases the problems undermining Turkey's political system.
  MEDYA NEWS

Narrative B:

• Abdullah Zeydan was sentenced to eight years in prison for terror-related charges. This includes aiding a terrorist organization and spreading propaganda. His party was even accused of having ties to an armed group designated a terrorist organization by, not only Turkey, but even the US and the EU. It is totally inappropriate that he was allowed to be elected to a democratic post.
  TURKISH MINUTE

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 7% chance that Turkey will be a member of the European Union by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• US Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.,), the GOP's chief deputy whip in the chamber, introduced a bill alongside six cosponsors on Friday to rename Washington D.C.'s main airport after former Pres. Donald Trump. congress.gov
• If introduced, the change would see the Washington Dulles International Airport — named after former pres. Eisenhower's Secretary of State John Foster Dulles — become "Donald J. Trump International Airport." reschenthaler.house.gov
• The bill argues that renaming the Virginia-based airport after the former pres. would be a "symbol of freedom, prosperity and strength," and claims that the US has "has never been greater" than under Trump's presidency. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• The bill is currently co-sponsored by Republican Reps. Michael Waltz of (Fla.), Andy Ogles of (Tenn.), Charles Fleischmann (Tenn.), Paul Gosar of (Ariz.), Barry Moore (Ala.), and Troy Nehls (Texas). The Independent
• While Rep. Reschenthaler claimed Trump was "the best president of [his] lifetime," the suggestion has received pushback from Democrats, especially Rep. Abigail Spanberger who called the idea ridiculous. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• The GOP holds a majority in the House, as opposed to the Democratic-led Senate. Alongside the Dulles airport, D.C. is also home to the Ronald Reagan National Airport — named after the 1981-89 Republican president. Dw.Com

Pro-Trump narrative:

• During his four years in office, Trump raised the average income Americans by thousands, increased the wealth of the bottom 50% of people by 40%, secured the southern border, and defeated ISIS abroad. When Americans are flying home, or foreign visitors are visiting for the first time, there is no better name to display on an airport as they land in the nation's capital than that of Donald J. Trump.
  RESCHENTHALER

Anti-Trump narrative:

• Putting Trump's name on the main airport of the nation's capital would only reflect hypocrisy. Trump's ban on immigration from several predominantly Muslim nations early on in his presidency revealed his disdain for American values and his desire to crush the American dream. The lawmakers making this proposal know it won't pass — it's just a move aimed at sucking up to their dictatorial presidential candidate.
  HUFFINGTON POST (LR: 1 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 49% chance that Donald Trump will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• US Pres. Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, held on Tuesday a nearly two-hour "candid and constructive" phone conversation in which contentious and cooperative issues were addressed. BBC News
• This was the first time that the two leaders spoke with each other since they exchanged congratulations on the 45th anniversary of diplomatic ties between Beijing and Washington on Jan. 1. Chinadaily.com.cn
• Biden and Xi expressed concerns to each other about trade policies and Taiwan, according to official readouts, with talks also focusing on the South China Sea and ongoing conflicts in the world. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• However, the two leaders have reportedly sought consensus on artificial intelligence, climate change, and military communications, as well as the fight against drug trafficking. Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• As part of their agreement, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is expected to speak with his new Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, for the first time in the coming weeks. South China Morning Post
• Other high-level US-China exchanges are on the horizon as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is scheduled to travel to China on Thursday, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken to follow in the near future. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Democratic narrative:

• Pres. Biden made good use of his conversation with Xi as he raised several concerns over worrying international developments and defended the US. His administration is currently doing all it can to ensure peaceful and stable relations with Beijing — and even push for limited cooperation — as competition between the two powers increases.
  SEMAFOR

Republican narrative:

• Another interaction with Xi, another show of weakness. Joe Biden has essentially done the same thing over and over again during his tenure, raising concerns to Beijing over a plethora of issues but not taking any step — either words or actions — to force China to halt its provocations.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Pro-China narrative:

• While this phone call is certainly a reassurance that tensions remain managed, the US continues to say one thing while doing another. There is handsome potential for both nations to thrive in the same global order but this will only occur if America focuses on actions rather than words, and respects its commitments to measures such as the One-China policy.
  GLOBAL TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 10% chance of a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Tennessee’s General Assembly on Monday passed bill SB2691, which "prohibit[s] the intentional injection, release, or dispersion" of chemicals or similar substances into the atmosphere "with the express purpose of affecting temperature, weather, or the intensity of the sunlight." Capitol
• The bill was sponsored by state Rep. Monty Fritts and state Sen. Steve Southerland, both Republicans, who say there was "widespread documentation" of geoengineering, practices that use chemical compounds to manage climate change and "solar impact." WKRN.com
• Geoengineering is a largely theoretical concept that includes wide-ranging proposals aimed at counteracting climate change. Hypothetical examples include reflecting sunlight back into space to lower the temperature and cloud seeding. WION
• Tennessee lawmakers focused on the issue last year after the federal government released a report on solar geoengineering — reflecting sunlight into space. The White House said there were no plans to "establish a comprehensive research program focused on solar radiation modification." BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Republican Gov. Bill Lee is ready to sign the bill into law so it will take effect July 1. Other states, including Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Kentucky, and Minnesota have introduced similar legislation. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The bill makes no reference to chemtrails or any similar theory, despite critics claiming it relates to the theory that airplanes are spraying government-made chemicals into the sky instead of condensation trails. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Democratic narrative:

• Republicans have gone off the rails. This is a case of them spreading debunked conspiracy theories and passing a law to ban something that's non-existent. The conspiracy theories aside, this bill focuses on geoengineering, which is an undefined collection of hypothetical practices that have never been tested. This is a waste of time and resources.
  IFLSCIENCE

Republican narrative:

• Democrats and their media allies want to smear Republicans over this bill, but there's no mention of "chemtrails" and it in fact deals with geoengineering — a practice the government released a report about last year. Some media pundits are changing their tune about geoengineering and Republicans will continue to fight the lies and protect their constituents.
  TENNESSEE CONSERVATIVE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 3% chance that a geoengineering act of Congress will become US federal law by the end of 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• In a filing Tuesday, special counsel Jack Smith's team criticized a request from the judge presiding over the case involving Pres. Donald Trump's alleged retention of classified documents after his presidency. PBS NewsHour (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Smith's team wrote that US District Judge Aileen Cannon relied on a "fundamentally flawed legal premise" when she asked the prosecution and defense to propose jury instructions on the scenarios in which Trump could be protected under the Presidential Records Act (PRA). Voice of America
• Cannon's request could signal that she's receptive to the premise that Trump was permitted to retain classified documents. Smith wrote that he would appeal any decision that doesn’t reject the premise. Daily Caller (LR: 5 CP: 4)
• Smith also wrote that Trump didn't designate the classified documents as personal while in office, meaning the 1978 law doesn't apply in this case. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Cannon has yet to rule on Trump’s motions to dismiss the case, and a trial date hasn’t been set, though it was originally scheduled for late May. Trump has pleaded not guilty to 40 charges of retaining classified documents. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Anti-Trump narrative:

• With this filing, Smith dismantled any notion Trump could be protected by the PRA, and he's schooling Cannon on how to apply the law in this case. The PRA doesn’t apply to a president who was out of office for more than a year, and Smith knows this is just Trump's way of stalling. If Cannon doesn’t adhere to established legal principles, Smith will have no choice but to appeal.
  MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• Smith is obviously growing frustrated because his case is falling apart, so he's taking out his anger on Cannon. In his haste to prosecute Trump, Smith can't handle the fact that the judge wants to make sure the jury is provided everything it needs to reach a proper decision. Smith may want to get this case to trial before the November election, but Cannon knows there are steps that need to be taken to ensure proper justice.
  PJ MEDIA (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Trump’s classified documents trial will begin by June 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)