Improve The News

• Israeli police shut down the Al Jazeera channel on Sunday over alleged national security concerns. Access to the platform's online content was also restricted. TheTimesofIsrael
• The seized Al Jazeera broadcasting equipment includes cameras, microphones, servers, laptops, and mobile phones. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• This comes after the Israeli cabinet passed a motion to pull Al Jazeera off the air unanimously, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleging its reporters "incited against [Israel Defense Forces] soldiers." Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The Israeli Ministry of Communications said it had confiscated Al Jazeera's communication equipment. Previously, Netanyahu had claimed that the network was a "mouthpiece for Hamas." CNN
• Al Jazeera is one of the only media outlets broadcasting from Gaza. The Netanyahu government has often criticized the Qatar-owned network for its coverage of Israel's war against Hamas. POLITICO

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Al Jazeera has been glorifying Hamas and supporting anti-Israeli activities, including terrorism and incitement. Shutting it down is, therefore, justified on national security grounds. The network has promoted antisemitism and radical ideologies. It was necessary to pull it off air to counter its dangerous influence and propaganda.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Al Jazeera's shutting down curtails freedom of information, affecting viewers in Israel, Gaza, the West Bank, and global audiences. The network has provided crucial coverage of significant events. The network's Gaza journalists face huge risks under the new labeling as a supposed "threat" to Israeli national security.
  PRNEWSWIRE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 50K Palestinian civilian deaths in the Israel-Gaza conflict before July 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• After Israel called for the evacuation of eastern Rafah on Monday, Hamas announced it would accept a cease-fire deal. However, the details were unclear and the situation continues progressing rapidly. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Israel's war cabinet, after reviewing Hamas' answer, voted unanimously to push ahead with an operation in Rafah "to apply military pressure on Hamas." Israel said Hamas' response was "far from Israel’s obligatory demands." Nonetheless, Israeli negotiators are set to talk with regional mediators for further cease-fire discussions. The Times of Israel (a)
• Israeli Channel 12 reported that Israeli officials have received Hamas' answer, but said that the proposal Hamas is referencing is not what Israel agreed to with Egyptian mediators over a week ago. The officials said that Hamas had added clauses preventing the resumption of hostilities. The Times of Israel (b)
• Israel dropped leaflets over Rafah early Monday, calling for people in eastern neighborhoods of the city — around 100K people — to evacuate to al-Mawasi, a nearby coastal area designated as a "safe area" for civilians. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• About 1.4M Palestinians have taken refuge in Rafah, and aid agencies have said that an Israeli offensive would worsen Gaza's humanitarian crisis. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday argued that Rafah was Hamas' last stronghold and entering it would prevent Hamas from rebuilding its military infrastructure. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• US Pres. Joe Biden reportedly spoke to Netanyahu on the phone for 30 minutes Monday. Netanyahu reportedly agreed to re-open the Karam Shalom Crossing into Gaza after it was closed following a Hamas attack on a nearby Israeli outpost killing four soldiers on Sunday. Axios

Pro-establishment narrative:

• It's taken a lot of work by representatives of several different countries to hammer out a deal that's the best outcome for both the hostages and the Palestinian people. Hamas has agreed to this three-part deal, and it would behoove Netanyahu to also accept it without a major attack on Rafah.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Israel must move ahead cautiously because so much about this deal is still unclear. Hamas has used deceptive tactics in the past to stall and gain time to prevent Israeli military actions, and it seems Hamas is attempting to insert last-minute clauses in an attempt to pressure Israel to accept a bad deal.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• The most consistent obstacle in these negotiations continues to be Netanyahu and his far-right government. If he wasn't pursuing salvaging his political career — and if the Biden administration wasn't so weak geopolitically — perhaps thousands of lives could have been saved. Either way, it's now up to Israel to ensure the end of this brutal war.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 5% chance that a shared power arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Columbia University has announced that it will cancel its university-wide commencement ceremony scheduled for May 15 due to the ongoing pro-Palestinian protests. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The university will instead hold various smaller-scale celebrations for the institution's individual schools. Many of the smaller celebrations will take place at the university's Baker Athletics Complex, far from the protests taking place on the main campus. www.ft.com
• This follows weeks of pro-Palestinian protests on campus. In the demonstrations, which started on April 17, students have demanded a cease-fire in Gaza and called for the university to divest from some companies with interests in Israel. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• On April 30, the New York Police Department clashed with protesters while police attempted to clear a protest encampment at Hamilton Hall, resulting in over 100 arrests. Columbia asked law enforcement to stay on campus until at least May 17. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• The school said that the decision to cancel the main commencement ceremony was made after discussions with student leaders. Security considerations were cited as the main reason for the cancelation. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• The decision also follows an earlier decision by the University of Southern California to cancel its main commencement ceremony while allowing smaller ceremonies to continue due to the ongoing demonstrations. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• It would be logistically difficult to organize a large-scale event like a campus-wide commencement ceremony amidst the protests happening at Columbia University — especially since some of these protests have turned violent. Smaller-scale individual ceremonies that will take place off the main campus are a fair trade-off that will still allow students to be celebrated for their accomplishments while also accommodating security concerns.
  ASSOCIATED PRESS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Conservative narrative:

• A small minority of students have ruined it for everyone else. It's a shame that Columbia has canceled its campus-wide commencement ceremony. Many of these students have been looking forward to this day for years, especially since the majority of them were unable to have in-person graduation ceremonies during high school because of the COVID pandemic. Colleges must regain order on their campuses and not allow this anarchy to continue any longer.
  FOX NEWS (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Progressive narrative:

• The student protests are on the right side of history. This is a social movement pushing back against the atrocities in Gaza, urging divestment from companies enabling Israel's ruthless operations against Palestine, and the resulting crackdown by militarized police. This is not just a US issue anymore — this is now a becoming an international movement of solidarity.
  DEMOCRACY NOW (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 5% chance that an independent review will find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Telegraph has reported that the US in late 2020 shared significant evidence with the UK suggesting the COVID pandemic likely originated from a lab leak in China, but leaders from the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance allegedly ignored the reports. The Telegraph
• From October to December 2020, then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reportedly shared information collected at the start of the pandemic that "pointed to the high likelihood that this was indeed a lab leak." FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• In Jan. 2021, just before the Trump admin left, the "Five Eyes" nations — the US, UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia — discussed the possibility of a lab leak, but leaders, including former UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, were reportedly unwilling to entertain the reports. The Telegraph
• The documents reported "consistent stonewalling" by China in the wake of COVID’s discovery. This was also the source for the first reports of the Chinese military working with the Wuhan Institute of Virology and that researchers had fallen ill right before the virus was publicly recorded. The Telegraph
• UK officials, including then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, continued to reject the lab leak theory in June 2021, and two former officials say the "Five Eyes" countries dismissed the evidence because then-US Pres. Donald Trump was politicizing COVID and its origins. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• The lab leak theory remains a controversial topic worldwide. The Telegraph

Establishment-critical narrative:

• As time passes, it's becoming apparent that the lab-leak theory had more legs than the greater world knew during the first year of the pandemic. Sadly, the theory was ignored over time because officials in other countries didn't want to be associated with Trump. Vital evidence may have been lost while prominent governments were turning a blind eye.
  NEWSMAX

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Governments haven't ruled out the lab leak theory, they're just being cautious about touting it while the scientific community continues to work on this difficult puzzle. It would be irresponsible to do otherwise.
  INDEPENDENT (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 9% chance that at least two public health agencies will claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• John Swinney was elected without opposition as the Scottish National Party's (SNP) new leader Monday. The news comes a week after First Minister Humza Yousaf announced his resignation. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Swinney won the position following activist Graeme McCormick's decision to pull out of the race Sunday, and former finance secretary Kate Forbes's announcement last week that she would not run after being offered a "significant" role in a new government by Swinney. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Following Swinney's appointment, the SNP leader will attempt to be approved by Scotland's Parliament as early as Tuesday. The vote date is decided by the parliamentary bureau, while the devolved legislature has 28 days upon Yousaf's official resignation to nominate a replacement. Sky News
• Yousaf resigned a week after the now-former SNP leader ended the Bute House coalition agreement with the Green Party, who later publicly supported a vote of no confidence against the minority SNP Government. Verity
• During his victory speech, Swinney said, "Scotland wins when the SNP wins" despite "fac[ing] a rough time recently," while he reaffirmed the party's commitment to Scottish independence. snp.org
• According to YouGov's latest data, the SNP holds 36% of popular support among Scottish adults aged 16 and older in comparison to Labour's 32%, the Conservatives' 16%, and the Liberal Democrats' 9%. yougov.co.uk

Left narrative:

• Swinney, who has participated in Scottish politics for decades, knows how to play the game well. Instead of bashing anti-independence Members of the Scottish Parliament, Swinney has set out a cross-party agenda aimed at rejuvenating key sectors, including healthcare and schooling. Scotland has recently endured unnecessary political turmoil, and now it's time for Swinney to bring back normality.
  INDEPENDENT (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Right narrative:

• Swinney's entire career is connected to Nicola Sturgeon's tainted legacy and also support for many unpopular gender and hate-speech policies that have led to the downfall of his party. The appointment of Swinney shows that the SNP hasn't learned from its mistakes and is incapable of providing the cure to Scotland's problems.
  THE TELEGRAPH

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 5% chance that Scotland leaves the UK by Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Australia's Qantas Airways on Monday agreed to pay a 100M Australian dollar ($66M) penalty and AU$20M ($13M) in compensation to passengers to settle a lawsuit accusing it of selling thousands of tickets on long-canceled flights. Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, Qantas misled and deceived its customers by advertising seats on more than 8K "ghost flights" between May 2021 and July 2022. Euronews
• Qantas will pay AU$225 ($149) to customers who bought tickets for domestic flights and AU$450 ($298) for tickets booked for international trips. The cancellations impacted more than 86K travelers. CNN
• Qantas has maintained that it offered alternative flight arrangements to 80% of its domestic flyers within three hours of their original departure time. news.com.au
• The fine and compensation package are subject to the Federal Court of Australia's approval. However, the company has said it intends to initiate the remediations early. Qantas
• Qantas reported an annual profit of AU$2.47B ($1.6B) in the last financial year, a dramatic turnaround from an AU$1.86B ($860M) loss a year ago. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Qantas should've faced much stiffer penalties for lying to flyers, blaming COVID for its no-show, and dodging responsibility for its overloaded systems. If there's a silver lining here, it's the message this penalty — while not tough enough — will send to airlines worldwide about treating travelers well and the consequences of their actions if they don't.
  CRIKEY

Narrative B:

• Though its services were hampered by COVID, Qantas admitted its failure to promptly provide cancellation notifications and maintain its high standards. So Qantas is compensating wronged customers in addition to revamping its processes and improving its technology. This settlement restores Qantas’ status as a marquee carrier.
  AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the next commercial supersonic flight occur by November, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Former Pres. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, was fined the maximum of $1K again Monday for violating the gag order imposed in his New York hush money trial. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Previously, Judge Juan Merchan last week fined Trump $1K each for nine Truth Social posts that were deemed in violation of the gag order, which prohibits Trump from making public statements related to likely witnesses, prosecutors, court staff, or their families. Verity
• In issuing the latest fine, Merchan cited Trump's comments in an April interview saying the jury was "picked so fast" and was "95% Democrats." Merchan demanded that if the statements were posted to Truth Social, it should be removed by 2:15 p.m. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Merchan also reiterated his threat to incarcerate Trump for future violations, although the judge said it's "the last thing" he wants to do because it would be "disruptive to the proceedings." NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Testimony continued Monday in the case featuring Trump facing 34 charges of falsifying business records to cover up an alleged hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Anti-Trump narrative:

• This is a small penalty for Trump's blatant flaunting of the gag order. Merchan may have to up the ante, and even consider jail time if Trump doesn't cease attempting to put his thumb on the scale of justice with insulting posts and accusatory statements about witnesses and other members of the court.
  HUFFINGTON POST (LR: 1 CP: 4)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• It's absurd that Trump is being punished when people like Daniels and Cohen have been profiting off public interviews and their accusations about the former president. Trump has merely been reiterating his long-held, correct views about this case being a witch hunt against him, and his First Amendment rights have been taken away.
  THE POST MILLENNIAL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 12% chance that Trump will testify at the hush money trial, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Niger's state media has reported that new Russian military advisers and equipment have reached the country. This comes after Niger terminated a military cooperation agreement with the US and expelled French troops deployed on its soil. arabnews.com
• The Africa Corps — considered the successor to the Russian Wagner paramilitary group in Africa — has confirmed that two military transporters landed in the West African country on Saturday. The Moscow Times
• In addition, a large Russian shipment of food and other basic supplies arrived in the landlocked Sahel country, which is reportedly seeking to strengthen its political and military ties with Moscow. Business Insider
• The deployment of military personnel follows earlier reports of a Russian cargo plane with some 100 military advisors, equipment, and air defense systems being sent to Niger last month. WE News
• Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed on Friday that Russian security personnel arrived at an air base in Niger where US troops are also stationed but in a separate building with no access to US troops or equipment. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In March, Niger's military government called on Washington to withdraw its almost 1K troops from the country. Before last July's military coup, Niger was considered a key US partner in fighting a regional Islamist insurgency. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The Russian troop deployment proves that Moscow is eager to capitalize on anti-Western sentiment in Niger. That US troops now share a base with Russia's ruthless Africa Corps poses a certain security risk to the US, but it's primarily Niger's security that's at stake. While Moscow seeks to exploit Niger's resources, Islamist violence is on the rise since the forced withdrawal of Western troops. Niger's junta should think twice about turning its back on the US.
  POLITICO.COM

Establishment-critical narrative:

• That Russia is sending fresh military advisors and hardware to Niger is good news for the country and its people. The neocolonial West pretends to care about democracy while waging a never-ending war on terror in the Sahel to control its resources. However, times have changed, and African nations are increasingly rejecting Washington's hegemonic "rules-based order." Russia stands ready to back Niger in its quest for genuine independence and peace.
  RT INTERNATIONAL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance that Niger will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Russia on Monday said it would soon hold military exercises that included practice for the preparation and deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, blaming "provocative statements and threats of certain Western officials." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Though Russia's nuclear forces regularly hold exercises with such weapons — intended for battlefield use and are not as powerful as conventional nuclear warheads — it was the first time that Russia publicly announced plans to hold such drills. ABC News
• The move comes after French Pres. Emmanuel Macron and British Foreign Minister David Cameron made remarks late last week that the Kremlin condemned as "dangerous" and described as an escalation of the conflict with Ukraine. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Macron once again did not rule out sending Western ground troops to Ukraine. Cameron, for his part, said that Ukraine was able to use British-provided weapons to fire into Russian territory. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Commenting further on the statement of the Russian Defense Ministry, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "Deploying NATO soldiers to confront the Russian military in the latest escalation of tensions is an unprecedented move. And, of course, it requires special attention and special measures." TASS (a)
• On Monday, Russia's Foreign Ministry further announced that it had summoned Britain's ambassador to Moscow Nigel Casey for a meeting. TASS (b)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Russia is once again threatening the West with nuclear weapons. Putin did a similar thing when Britain said it would provide Ukraine with armor-piercing shells containing depleted uranium. This is the Kremlin's playbook for seeking to scare its enemies into obsequience.
  ABC NEWS

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Despite Russia's warnings, the West continues to escalate the conflict by suggesting that NATO troops will be stationed in Ukraine, and by allowing it to strike in Russian territory — hundreds of miles from where the conflict is taking place. Russia had no choice but to respond to these Western provocations.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There is an 12% chance that there will be a global thermonuclear war by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US military has acknowledged that it mistakenly killed a civilian in an airstrike in Syria in 2023 after he was misidentified as a senior al-Qaeda leader. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• According to the Pentagon, the May 3, 2023 airstrike, which US Central Command previously said had targeted a terrorist, actually killed a 56-year-old farmer named Lutfi Hasan Masto. Military.com
• Although it was deemed to be compliant with the laws of armed conflict, Central Command said that the military "acknowledges and regrets the civilian harm that resulted from the airstrike." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Following his accidental killing, Masto's family didn't receive a compensatory payment "given the facts of this situation and both policy and practical limitations." CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Although doubts about the airstrike's success were raised immediately, the US military conducted a more detailed investigation that followed an initial report by the Washington Post in May 2023. Business Insider
• The investigation into Masto's killing concluded last November and reportedly involved interviews, site visits, and information gathering from nongovernmental organizations, including the Syrian White Helmets. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Although it's unfortunate that an innocent civilian was killed, the airstrike followed the rules of armed conflict and the policies of the US military. It resulted from numerous errors, and Central Command is committed to using the mistake to develop vital "lessons learned" and prevent civilian casualties in the future.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Civilians are the ones who bear the brunt of US military drone warfare in the Middle East. The US military faces minimal consequences for the "accidental" murders of these innocent people, and the families of these victims often never get restitution or justice for these deaths.
  AL JAZEERA (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Syria will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by February 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Pulitzer Prize Board has praised the work of student journalists who have been covering the US campus protests "in the face of great personal and academic risk." The Hill
• The Board specifically acknowledged Columbia University's student journalists' "extraordinary real-time reporting" under what it described as "difficult and dangerous circumstances." ThePulitzerPrizes
• The development comes ahead of the May 6 announcement of the 2024 Pulitzer Prize winners, who are awarded by Columbia University on the Board's recommendation. TRTWorld
• University of California student radio station WKCR FM on Tuesday held a live broadcast of police action, as officers cleared a Columbia University building reportedly seized by protestors. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The following day, two student journalists with The Dartmouth were arrested at Dartmouth College, despite reportedly wearing identification as reporters. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• The Pulitzer Prize Board's laudatory statement for the student journalists' courageous coverage of the campus protests is a much-needed gesture. It comes amid propaganda and doles of negativity aimed at the protesters and underscores the significance of their real-time reporting, emphasizing press freedom amid escalating campus unrest nationwide.
  THE HILL

Narrative B:

• The haloed Pulitzer Prize Board's appreciation of student journalists could have been considered a gesture made in good faith, but for the apparent orchestration of the protests they were covering. Arab financial influence is clearly at play in US campuses, which can't be hidden behind the cheap thrills stoked by "student journalists."
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 32% chance that there will be fewer than 400 public four-year colleges in the US by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A Philadelphia police officer fatally shot a Cane Corso that was part of a pack of four dogs — including three pit bulls — attacking a 53-year-old man on the street. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Following the incident in the city's Mantua neighborhood, the officer was placed on administrative duty pending a probe. Investigators claim he tried distracting the dogs with his siren before firing three shots, after which the pit bulls ran off. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• According to his neighbors, the man was attempting to protect his own dog from the pack. He reportedly suffered bite wounds all over his body and is in stable condition at the hospital. 6abc Philadelphia
• The police have yet to reveal whether they have found the other dogs' owner or the reason they were running loose. Inquirer
• This comes days after New York Police Department officers shot and killed a pit bull who fatally mauled its 41-year-old owner in the Bronx. New York Daily News

Narrative A:

• People jump to conclusions when they hear about pit bull attacks because they're misinformed. As with any breed, whether or not a pit bull is aggressive depends on when it was spayed or neutered and how its owner raises and treats it. Even if society chooses to ban them, maintaining such a policy would cost far too much.
  HUMANE RESCUE ALLIANCE

Narrative B:

• People who want to ban pit bulls aren't jumping to conclusions — they use common sense and follow the statistics. Pit bulls are disproportionately more inclined to maul people — especially children — because they're biologically wired toward aggressive behavior and built to impose maximum carnage on their victims. There's no reason not to ban them.
  TWITTER.COM

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Open Philanthropy will grant at least $99.4M towards animal welfare in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Thousands of Georgians gathered on Saturday evening for a candlelight vigil outside Parliament in Tbilisi on the eve of Orthodox Easter, as protests continue against a proposed bill to stem foreign influence over the country. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• For the past month, demonstrators have rallied daily outside the parliament building despite strong police response — including the use of tear gas and water cannons. CNN
• The protesters marched to the central office of the ruling Georgian Dream party on Friday to reiterate their opposition to the draft legislation and demand the release of those detained in recent protests. Anadolu Agency
• Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has claimed that the bill is necessary for transparency and accountability in the country, rejecting pressure from the US and EU to drop the legislation and calling them to engage in "substantive discussions." Reuters
• His government insists that the law that would require non-profit entities to register as "pursuing the interests of a foreign influence" if they receive at least 20% of their funding from abroad is similar to legislation in Western countries. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The bill has already cleared its second reading, 83 to 23, and Georgian Dream wants to enact the law by the end of the month. Pres. Salome Zurabishvili has pledged to veto it if it passes a third reading, but the ruling party can overrule her. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The overwhelming majority of Georgians want to deepen ties with the West, and yet the government is moving forward with its illiberal project — now borrowing tools from Putin's Russia to force civil society actors out of the country. Western countries have a moral imperative to stand with Georgians and impose sanctions on those leading this move.
  THE HILL

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Violent protests against the bill "On Transparency of Foreign Influence" have become all too frequent in Tbilisi due to the outrage and despair of those who are effectively linked to foreign-funded non-profit organizations. And while Russia has yet again been used as a scapegoat, it's actually America's Foreign Agents Registration Act that has inspired this legislation.
  RT (LR: 3 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 49% chance that Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili will experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to CNN, Russian and US troops are operating from the same military base in Niger amid heightened tensions over the Ukraine crisis and the ruling junta's warning that the American forces must leave the country. CNN
• However, US officials have stated that the Russian forces' presence doesn't pose an immediate security threat to American soldiers because they have been using a separate hangar at Airbase 101. ABC News
• Niger had been a major partner in the US war against Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates in the Sahel until its military takeover last July. In March, Niger's junta ordered Washington to withdraw its almost 1K troops stationed in the country. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• After designating the military takeover as a coup last October, the US restricted its military support and aid to Niger. Since then, diplomatic efforts to restore relations with Niamey's government have failed. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday at a press conference in Moscow that Russia is "building ties with various African countries in all areas, including the military." CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Several Sahel nations are now run by military juntas, who have ditched former ruler France and strengthened ties with Russia to combat Islamist insurgency in the region. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The recent development at Airbase 101 isn't ideal, but it's manageable. After last year's military takeover in Niger, the US moved some troops from Airbase 101 to Airbase 201 in Agadez to fight Islamic State and al-Qaida affiliates using armed drones. Talks with Niger's military leadership about the threat of Islamic terrorists rising in the Sahel without US military and intelligence backing are still ongoing.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The fact that Russian advisors are at the same military site as US personnel is a major foreign policy failure for Biden and Blinken. We were aware of the Russian presence in Niger a month ago, yet no action was taken. The pressing question is: what will happen to the bases once US forces leave? Russia cannot be allowed to get it's claws into the region as a result of Washington's ineptitude.
  NEWSWEEK (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance there will be a civil war in Niger before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The New York Times reported on Friday that senior Israeli officials have considered sharing power with Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, as well as the US, in Gaza after the war. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The proposal would likely be shot down by both the Arab states and Israel's political right-wing, as it doesn't include a mechanism to establish a Palestinian state. The Times of Israel (a)
• The report comes after an Egyptian official told the Wall Street Journal that Israel had warned Hamas it has one week to agree to the revised cease-fire proposal, or it will enter Rafah. The Wall Street Journal
• Hamas' political leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, hasn't responded to the proposal as of yet. Sinwar, who Israel accuses of taking part in orchestrating the Oct. 7 attack, is allegedly hiding out in Hamas' tunnel network underneath the besieged enclave. The Wall Street Journal
• However, Israeli Channel 12 has reported that Sinwar believes the latest cease-fire proposal is a trap, citing an unverified source. It further added that Lebanon's Hezbollah had been pressuring Hamas to accept the deal. The Times of Israel (b)
• Meanwhile, UN chief Antonio Guterres has called for Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement, warning that "the war will worsen exponentially" without a cease-fire. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Though the Israeli right and the Arab states will likely dismiss this proposal, it indicates that Israel's leadership has been considering its strategy for Gaza's post-war governance. Though the right wants to crush Gaza, and the Arab states wish for a clear framework for the establishment of a Palestinian state, it's still possible for cooler heads to prevail. The biggest issue as of now, however, is that Hamas hasn't been defeated, and Netanyahu needs to think fast to extricate himself and Israel from this situation.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel was the final nail in the coffin for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Since Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, the enclave has essentially existed as a terrorist-run proto-state led by Hamas. Given the Palestinian Authority's inefficacy, Israel has no partners for peace, and the last 20 years in Gaza prove this. A violent, terrorist-run Palestinian state would be an existential threat to Israel's security.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• US Pres. Joe Biden must realize what Israel and Netanyahu plan to do with Gaza after the war — change the "facts on the ground" so that Palestinians can't return and Gaza's beachfront real estate be transformed into luxurious Israeli settlements. At best, Biden is blind to what Israel's true desires are and, at worst, fully complicit in Gaza's ethnic cleansing. Israeli officials continue to openly say what they want to do with Gaza and the Palestinian people, yet all the US can do is express concern.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2076, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Turkey’s trade ministry announced on Thursday that the country has halted all import and export transactions with Israel, "until the Israeli government allows an uninterrupted and sufficient flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza.” CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In response to the move, which also called for a cease-fire in Gaza, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz accused Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of behaving like a dictator, disregarding the interests of his own people and trade agreements. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• On Friday, Erdoğan said that these measures are intended "to force Israel to agree to a cease-fire and increase the amount of humanitarian aid” going into Gaza. He further stressed that Turkey wants to stop further conflict in the region. The Times of Israel
• Though trade between Israel and Turkey was worth almost $7B in 2023, relations between them have been strained in recent years, especially since the start of the war in Gaza for which Erdoğanhas criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Turkey imposed trade restrictions on Israel in April over an alleged refusal to allow Ankara to participate in aid air-drop operations over Gaza, as well as the Israeli military actions in the strip. Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Anti-Israel narrative:

• Pres. Erdoğan is simply representing the overwhelming feeling of the Turkish people, who want to show solidarity with the people of Gaza. Israel commits daily atrocities in Gaza while the international community does nothing. Even more damning, the Arab and Islamic worlds have also failed to rally around the people of Palestine. Turkey's move is a victory for Palestinian rights.
  DAILY SABAH

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Turkey's actions are completely reprehensible, and Erdoğan should be thinking more strategically. Ankara, by halting trade with Israel, is violating regulations and endangering world trade and supply chains. Israel is a strong nation with many allies, and is more than capable of finding alternative trade partners if need be.
  YNETNEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 99% chance that Turkey will be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Elon Musk has reportedly laid off Tesla's entire Supercharger division — which is responsible for building electric vehicle (EV) charging stations — sparking concerns among EV makers. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The 500-member team was fired earlier this week, as Tesla reportedly backed out of four Supercharger location leases in the New York City area. Yahoo Finance
• Nearly every EV maker in the US has agreed to join Tesla's Supercharger network, which has over 2.2K fast-charging stations with more than 25.4K plugs. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes after Musk announced a $10B commitment to "combined training and inference AI," indicating his desire to make robotaxis a reality. Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Following the layoff, Ford said its plans to sign up with Tesla haven't changed, though General Motors said it would "monitor "the decision's potential impact. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Two weeks ago, Tesla fired 14K employees worldwide, reportedly to cut costs amid disappointing profits and falling stock price. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• With zero notice to his employees and EV partners, Elon Musk's rash decision will disrupt the entire industry. Musk's erratic behavior undermines and negates any progress his companies make, as has happened here with the complete derailment of the proliferation of Tesla charging stations just as they were set to become the de facto standard. In pursuit of short-term cost cutting, Musk has hurt Tesla and the future of an industry he purports to love.
  VERGE (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Narrative B:

• The reactions to Tesla's layoffs of the Supercharger team are vastly overblown, and the company is still looking to grow its network. Like any business, Tesla can only commit to profitable departments. EV makers are still committed to joining Tesla's network, and the only result of Musk's decision is that charging stations will be built at a slower pace. Tesla has a lot of ongoing projects, and these layoffs will enable other developments to thrive.
  TESLARATI

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 10% chance that Tesla will become the largest car company in the world (by sales) before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Rebel fighters with the M23 group captured Rubaya, a mining town in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), on Tuesday after clashes with state troops. Rubaya is a hub for coltan mining, a crucial mineral for electronics. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• A military spokesman for the Tutsi-led M23, Willy Ngoma, informed reporters that the town was under the group's control following fighting with ethnic Hutu armed groups in the area, such as the Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda. The Telegraph
• On Wednesday, it remained unclear if the rebels fully controlled the town. Lieutenant Colonel Guillaume Njike of the DRC army stated that he was unable to confirm the situation at that moment. Voice of America
• Over the past 18 months, militants have seized significant land in the mineral-rich Masisi district, which many Tutsis consider to be an ethnic homeland. The DRC has accused neighboring Rwanda of supporting the rebels for financial gain. AOL
• As news of rebel gains in eastern Congo emerged, French Pres. Emmanuel Macron met with DRC Pres. Félix Tshisekedi in Paris. Macron urged Rwanda to "halt its support" for the M23 rebel group, which it has vigorously denied doing. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Minerals from the DRC are often trafficked through Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi, causing conflict. The DRC has asked Apple to investigate the origin of minerals in its supply chain, with Apple saying it has not found evidence of illicit trade. The Telegraph

Narrative A:

• For years, Hutu-Tutsi conflicts have caused violence in the DRC's mineral-rich east. Most of the world's tantalum comes from the DRC and Rwanda, and the illegal trade in this and other minerals needed for EV batteries and mobile phones fuels the conflict. Rebel groups have taken over vast areas where these artisan mines are located, moving back and forth across the borders of several neighboring countries. The central government in Kinshasa does not seem to maintain the necessary military presence to put an end to the violence.
  CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• It's a disgrace that the world is watching as criminal and armed gangs steal and sell minerals while brutalizing the people of eastern Congo, which sits on top of many of the minerals required for the manufacture of technologies to address climate change. The DRC needs assistance in establishing a lawful, transparent mining economy that will benefit everyone who uses a mobile phone or drives an electric vehicle. There is global recognition of the problem, but the political will to address it has faltered.
  UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 55% chance that there will be a successful coup d'etat in the DRC before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The European Commission (EC) is reportedly investigating whether Meta failed to comply with obligations set out in the Digital Services Act (DSA) to address disinformation campaigns and other coordinated inauthentic behavior on its social media platforms. European Commission (a)
• The commission's accusations include a lack of transparency over the demotion of political content, an inability to effectively monitor real-time political content, insufficient reporting mechanisms for illegal content, and a lack of oversight for adverts. BBC News
• In March, the EC mandated Very Large Online Platforms (VLOPs) and Very Large Online Search Engines (VLOSEs) must "mitigate systemic risks" such as artificial intelligence (AI) deepfakes ahead of EU elections in June. Verity
• Under new regulation, VLOPs and VLOSEs are liable to fines of up to 6% of their annual revenue if they're found to have violated the DSA's content moderation standards. European Commission (b)
• The bloc has said that it may take further enforcement steps, including interim measures and noncompliance decisions if necessary during its investigation. The EU has not set a legal deadline for bringing the formal proceedings to an end. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Meta has been given five days to inform the bloc over corrective measures intended to address the commission's concerns. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Narrative A:

• The DSA was created to ensure that platforms like Facebook and Instagram do enough to moderate content and prevent misuse. Meta must be proactive in upholding their legal responsibilities to protect Europe's democratic institutions, or else the EC will continue to crackdown on Big Tech's failure to comply.
  EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Narrative B:

• Meta has long been transparent about its policies, processes, and enforcement. The company is committed to complying with the rules of the DSA, and has updated its transparency measures and some user features in order to meet with EU regulatory obligations. Holding a shared vision with the EC, Meta will continue to minimize the potential for online harm while protecting Europe from those who wish to undermine its democratic functions.
  META

Nerd narrative:

• There is an 80% chance that a politician will claim that they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The UK-based human rights group Article 19 has claimed that China's Digital Silk Road, launched in 2015, is exporting digital authoritarianism across the world. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The watchdog has alleged that Cambodia, Nepal, and Thailand have been moving toward their version of the Chinese Great Firewall, while Malaysia favors Beijing's digital governance model. ARTICLE 19
• This comes as tech companies allegedly linked to the Chinese Communist Party, such as Huawei and ZTE, are said to have been turned into proxies to expand "digital repression" while building digital infrastructure. Radio Free Asia
• China has stated that developing its Digital Silk Road, which aims to boost digital connectivity in countries of the Belt and Road Initiative, is part of its effort to build a digital economy this year. South China Morning Post
• Speaking at the Digital Silk Road Development Forum last month, UN Undersecretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Li Junhua said the project has played a crucial role in "bridging the digital divide." XINHUA
• Though all Southeast Asian countries have received investments under the Digital Silk Road project, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore have reportedly received the bulk of funding. Huawei, Alibaba, and ZTE are the initiative's major stakeholders. FULCRUM

Anti-China narrative:

• China has sought to paint its Digital Silk Road as a harmless project to build digital infrastructure and expand connectivity, hiding its true intentions of turning its authoritarian model of digital governance into an alternative to the rights-based approach to the internet. China is undermining civil liberties abroad and more must be done to protect populations from this malicious interference.
  THE DIPLOMAT

Pro-China narrative:

• The West has all too often focused on surveillance and espionage when it comes to Chinese projects, so it isn't surprising that one of its publicly funded, so-called non-governmental organizations has purposefully neglected to acknowledge how the Digital Silk Road benefits the Global South. Instead of whining, the West should join Beijing in helping developing countries.
  MERICS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House will be at least 10.9 in 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• At a Washington fundraiser on Wednesday, Pres. Joe Biden called key US allies India and Japan "xenophobic," alongside adversaries Russia and China, arguing New Delhi and Tokyo have been struggling economically because "they don't want immigrants." NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Speaking at an event that marked the start of Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Heritage Month, Biden said the US economy continues to grow partly because "we welcome immigrants," who he asserted make the country "strong." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• However, the White House sought to downplay the president's remarks on Thursday, with press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre arguing that Biden was attempting to make a broader point about the US stance on immigration. CNN
• Biden's remarks come after the White House hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a state dinner in 2023, while Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made an official visit to the US just three weeks ago. India and Japan are two of the US' QUAD partners. The Economic Times
• Japan has maintained a closed-door stance on immigration despite a shrinking population due to its low birth rate. Meanwhile, India has enacted a new law that gives citizenship to religious minorities from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The International Monetary Fund estimates that Asia, led by India and China, will drive 60% of global GDP growth this year. According to its regional economic outlook, the region's growth reached 5.0% in 2023 and is projected to grow 4.5% in 2024. Nikkei Asia

Narrative A:

• Washington's relationship with its Asian allies is both important and enduring. The US president was simply making a broader point about the country's immigration policy. He meant no offense to India or Japan, as they share the same commitment to democracy, freedom, and dignity as America.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Grouping key allies, particularly when it comes to combating China, with longtime adversaries is irrational, especially when the US has its own problems with xenophobia. It's patronizing to disrespect India — the fastest-growing major economy in the world — and Japan — the first Asian country to achieve the developed economy label.
  BBC NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that India will become a World Bank high-income country by August 2049, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A new Pew Research Center poll shows 55% of US Catholics say they would vote for former US Pres. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, compared to 43% for incumbent Pres. Joe Biden. Biden won the demographic 50-49% in 2020. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Biden still holds a 49-47% lead among Hispanic Catholics, but that's much narrower than a similar Pew poll from 2020 that had Biden leading Trump by 67-26% for that demographic. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Trump's lead among White Catholics — 61-38% — has grown since 2020. Four years ago he was polling at 57-42% in that demographic. NCR
• The report says Trump leads 60-38% among all Protestants, 81-17% among White Evangelicals, and 57-41% among White non-Evangelicals. Biden, however, leads Trump by a margin of 77-18% among Black Protestants. pewresearch.org
• Christians are split on the issue of Trump's alleged effort to overturn the 2020 election, with 35% of Protestants saying he broke the law compared to 48% saying he did not. Catholics are split 41% each on the issue. pewresearch.org
• This polling comes as Hispanic Catholics reportedly make up about 40% of the Church in the US, with Hispanics as a whole projected to account for 14.7% of eligible voters this year. NCR

Republican narrative:

• While Biden claims to be a practicing Catholic, he continues to support gender and abortion laws antithetical to the Church's teachings. So it makes sense that more and more true Catholics are distancing themselves from him and backing Trump, who would better represent their interests in the White House.
  CATHOLIC HERALD

Democratic narrative:

• Ethnonationalism has unfortunately spread into some factions of the Church and Trumpism has filled a void left by past liberal-minded Church leaders. But that doesn't mean the old guard is gone. Pro-democracy Christians have an opportunity to stop this political religion in its tracks by backing Biden, who truly represents their values.
  LA CROIX INTERNATIONAL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 52% chance that Joe Biden will be reelected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A Yemeni university is offering admission to American students who have been suspended from their respective universities over pro-Palestine protests. Reuters
• Sana’a University, a public school run by the Iran-backed Houthis, issued a statement Friday commending the "humanitarian" protests of US students who have engaged in widespread protests — including encampments that have resulted in suspensions and other disciplinary actions. The Telegraph
• The university issued a statement condemning Western universities for subjecting students to "suppression of freedom of expression" by having police disband demonstrations. A spokesperson added that the college is "serious about welcoming students." Reuters
• Earlier this week, Iran’s Shiraz University offered scholarships to Western students who have been expelled for their protests. WCHS
• Previously, the Houthis, militants who've been designated as a terrorist group by the US, have attacked shipping vessels in solidarity with Palestine. WCHS
• Seven months into Israel’s war in Gaza following Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, college students across the US and Europe have ramped up protests calling for Israel to end its campaign and demanding their schools divest from companies that support the Israeli government. Reuters

Pro-establishment narrative:

• It's obvious these "protests" have gone too far in spreading terror and antisemitism now that the Houthis have endorsed these students' actions. You can't get more anti-America than the Iran-backed Houthis, and students should be ashamed to share anything in common with the group. While there is a role for peaceful protest, the Houthi's actions are a litmus test for what's really happening.
  WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The US is a self-proclaimed bastion of freedom, but its universities are egregiously suppressing students' freedom of expression. Unlike the US government, students aren't turning a blind eye to Israel's horrific actions in Gaza. Even if students don't want to travel to Yemen to attend school, Sana'a University supports their efforts. This is about solidarity on behalf of Palestinian suffering in Gaza.
  SANA'A UNIVERSITY

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Yemen will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by January 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Authorities in Brazil's southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul, said Friday that at least 37 people have died — and 74 are missing — after record-breaking flooding devastated cities statewide in the fourth such environmental disaster in a year. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• On Thursday, a hydroelectric dam collapsed and caused further damage in the flooded areas. Thousands were forced to leave their homes, and at least half a million people were without power and drinking water across the state. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes as torrential rains of nearly a half-foot (15 cm) per day have hit the region since Monday, leaving multiple rivers at flood stage. FOX Weather
• According to the National Institute of Meteorology, in the last four days of April, the state received about 70% of the precipitation it usually records for the entire month. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Gov. Eduardo Leite declared a state of emergency Thursday, adding that the state is currently dealing with its worst disaster ever. Storm damage has affected nearly 150 municipalities, destroyed bridges, and blocked roads. Dw.Com
• The Brazilian federal government has offered aircraft, boats, vehicles, as well as hundreds of soldiers to help clear roads, distribute basic goods, and set up shelters. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Narrative A:

• Increasingly, severe rainstorms and flooding are being linked to global warming and climate change. Warmer weather allows air to retain more water vapor, which is why we must implement policies to cool the global temperature to save lives and billions of dollars in damage.
  THE CONVERSATION (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Narrative B:

• It's easy to dismiss extreme weather events as a consequence of climate change, but in reality, they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.
  FT

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 95% chance that there will be at least 2˚C of global warming by Jan. 1, 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Khan said Friday that the court's "independence and impartiality" have been undermined as "individuals threaten to retaliate against the court or against court personnel" for decisions in cases. Truthout
• This comes as Axios reported that a bipartisan group of US senators held a virtual meeting with senior officials at the ICC to express their concern over potential arrest warrants against Israeli leaders. The Cradle
• The ICC is reportedly planning to issue arrest warrants for Israeli military and political officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on suspicion of war crimes in Gaza. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• On Monday, US House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said the potential arrest warrants would be "disgraceful" and "lawless" and could set a precedent for the international court to issue arrest warrants against American officials. Axios
• Bloomberg News reported this week that the US, which has never been a party to the ICC, and its G7 allies fear that these arrest warrants could jeopardize a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The ICC probe into possible war crimes in Gaza was launched three years ago, going back to the 2014 Israel-Hamas war, and is separate from a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Threats against the ICC are nothing new, dating back to when the Trump administration sanctioned Karim Khan and other ICC staff. The US, however, is not a member of the ICC and thus has no right to meddle in its business. The ICC does have jurisdiction over Gaza and East Jerusalem, so if it decides to take action against Israel's genocide, it will be justified in the eyes of all 124 ICC member states.
  AA.COM.TR

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The ICC is prosecuting Israel for defending itself against the worst attack on Jews since the Holocaust, a defensive war in which Israel has bent over backward to ensure it limits civilian casualties and provides humanitarian aid. The ICC should drop this bad faith prosecution and focus on someone like Bashar al-Assad in Syria — who has killed over 500K of his people.
  THE HILL

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 60% chance that the International Criminal Court will bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)