• Report suggests potential excess mortality in the general population of up to 3% for the US by 2033 and 2.5% in the UK, the longest period of elevated peacetime excess mortality in the US

• Key driver of excess mortality is the lingering impact of COVID-19; both as a direct cause of death, and as a contributor to cardiovascular mortality

• Reducing the impact of COVID-19 on elderly and vulnerable populations will be key to excess mortality returning to zero

Zurich, 16 September 2024 – Four years after the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries are still reporting elevated all-cause excess mortality compared with pre-pandemic levels. According to Swiss Re Institute's report The future of excess mortality after COVID-19, if the ongoing impact of the disease is not curtailed, excess mortality rates in the general population may remain up to 3% higher than pre-pandemic levels in the US and 2.5% in the UK by 2033.

Paul Murray, CEO L&H Reinsurance at Swiss Re says: "COVID-19 is far from over. The US reported an average of 1500 COVID-19 deaths a week for 2023 – comparable to fentanyl or firearm deaths.[1] If this continues, our analysis suggests a potential scenario of elevated excess mortality extending over the next decade. However, excess mortality can return to pre-pandemic levels much sooner. The first step is to get COVID under control, with measures such as vaccinations for the vulnerable. Over the longer term, medical advancements, a return to regular healthcare services, and the adoption of healthier lifestyle choices will be key."

Excess mortality is a measure of the number of deaths above an expected level in a given population. Typically, all-cause excess mortality should be around zero, as the major causes of death remain relatively stable over the long-term baseline assumption.

Fluctuations in excess mortality tend to be short-term, reflecting developments such as a large-scale medical breakthrough or the negative impact of a large epidemic. However, as society absorbs these events, excess mortality should revert to the baseline.

With COVID-19 this has not been the case and all-cause excess mortality is still above the pre-pandemic baseline. In 2021, excess mortality spiked to 23% above the 2019 baseline in the US, and 11% in the UK[2]. As Swiss Re Institute's report estimates, in 2023, it remained significantly elevated in the range of 3–7% for the US, and 5–8% for the UK.

If the underlying drivers of current excess mortality continue, Swiss Re Institute's analysis estimates that excess mortality may remain as high as 3% for the US and 2.5% for the UK by 2033.

The primary driving factor of both current and future excess mortality is respiratory disease (including COVID-19 and influenza), with other causes including cardiovascular disease, cancer and metabolic illnesses. The cause of death split varies by a country's reporting mechanism.

Optimistic scenarios require healthcare and medical advancements

Swiss Re's report examines an optimistic scenario where excess mortality rates return to pre-pandemic levels as early as 2028. In this scenario, medical advances, such as weight loss injectables and cancer developments such as personalised mRNA vaccines, combine with a drop in the impact of COVID-19 and healthier lifestyle choices.

Indirect impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality

The interplay between COVID-19 and cardiovascular death rates is significant for excess mortality. The virus itself has a direct impact because it contributes to causes of death such as heart failure. Further, COVID-19 has had an indirect impact via the disruption to healthcare systems – a factor which emerged in the pandemic years. This disruption has led to a backlog of essential cardiac tests and surgeries, meaning that conditions such as hypertension have been underdiagnosed and therefore not treated.

Implications for insurers

Excess mortality in the general population is an important indicator for insurers, as shifts in the major causes of death may require a reassessment of additional risk in their mortality portfolios.

The current levels of excess mortality are of concern. However, there are a range of tools available for insurers and reinsurers to manage this trend. Specific actions include adapting the underwriting philosophy, risk appetite, and mortality assumptions in pricing and reserving. Insurers can be proactive in targeting prevention programmes for policyholders, helping them in the joint effort to support longer, healthier lives.

[1] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data: In 2021, during the peak of the pandemic, COVID-19 claimed 9 037 lives a week, this dropped to 1 453 average weekly deaths in 2023. In comparison, in 2023, synthetic opioids (fentanyl) claimed 1 437 average weekly deaths, and firearms resulted in 900 average weekly deaths.

[2] Human Mortality Database provides data on actual mortality rate, while Swiss Re Institute analysis forms baseline calculations

It's 2024, and we get to relearn the same thing we've learned every year since the pandemic started: Covid causes brain damage!

Be aware that in most news articles about covid and brain damage, like this one, the authors usually measure the cognitive impacts in terms of IQ points, which is a bad way to measure it but it's what most people understand, I guess.

How Covid Harms the Brain

The effects of a SARS-CoV-2 infection on the brain are the focus of intense research and remain only partially understood. Studies suggest that during acute infection, the virus may damage nerves, particularly in the olfactory bulb — which houses the nerves that transmit smell impulses to the brain — leading to problems that can persist for years. In some cases, the virus may infect the brain through this pathway, altering the organ’s structure and resulting in impaired cognition and fatigue.

Persistent viral remnants or the initial infection itself may trigger neuroinflammation and disrupt the immune system, causing antibodies and T cells to mistakenly attack healthy brain cells, damage blood vessels, and harm the blood-brain barrier. Additional research points to blood clots that may drive immune activation, restricting the supply of oxygen and nutrients to the brain, and altered levels of key hormones cortisol and dopamine that may be linked to changes in gut health.

New vaccines are available, and I just got mine, but If you don't have insurance it will be expensive because our bloodthirsty capitalist oligarchs hate you. A lot of countries are just relying on constant covid infections to build up "herd immunity" which doesn't work with the common cold or flu, and those are far less infectious and don't mutate as quickly.

I've been working with @atomless on a new public tool to help people in England work out what's going on in their local area covid-wise.

It's an interactive map of PCR positivity. 🧵>>>

https://xcancel.com/skeuomorphology/status/1832136633522753563#m

Data for our comrades on Terf island.

They haven't released this poor kid's cause of death yet but....

The National Federation of State High School Associations said last week that six high school student athletes died within the past month, four of them from heart issues and two from being hit, according to the Associated Press. Gainer’s death brings that number to seven.

I feel like high school football players dropping dead with heart issues isn't normal. But maybe I'm the weirdo.

A real interaction between a pharmacy cashier and a customer that I overheard with my very own ears in Crooksville, OH, last week.

Granted, I didn't have high expectations for the combination pharmacy-hardware store, but WOW.

What shocking covid-related things have you encountered lately?

Been not posting for a bit for bad-feeling reasons and now this

Shit just keeps getting worse and worse

One antigen test (all I had/can afford) is negative but I'm almost certain its covid cuz my friend I see all the time is sick and someone they live with has a confirmed case :(

I have never felt more doomer in my life, can't stop thinking about not living

I don't want to get worse anymore

At least this time I don't feel so sick

Are they basically the same thing?

idk shit about science, but I thought I would post it here. I hope it's true.

Just trying to figure out.

I'm still getting the hang of Linux image editing apps, sorry the quality is poor.

Or if you do, at least wear a fucking mask you selfish superspreader fuck

Tell me again how uncomfortable those masks are.

If you follow the hashtag, indeed everyone who isn't a speaker is masking.

Link to post. ​

It is a reddit link and there are some pretty bad comments so beware, but I came upon this and appreciated the eloquence.

I've been seeing some discussion about being peer pressured into not taking precautions and throwing in the towel and I think it's really, REALLY important for folks to understand that it is actually a privilege to find yourself genuinely weighing the option to quit.

Many of our ranks do not have this choice because they are disabled and/or immunocompromised, and I think that gets ignored too often in this sub. Many have Long Covid and have had their lives completely destroyed. They've lost far more than just social interaction, restaurants, etc., (and that's not to diminish those losses, but to illustrate how much worse it can be.)

Now we are ALL facing immense societal pressure to conform (that's just the base state of existence for a covid informed individual) but the stakes for the disabled members of our community are so high that they don't even get to consider the option of buckling to peer pressure. Sadly that position has been made 100x worse by people who had more of a choice and chose the easy way out. It's incredibly difficult to do the right thing in these times just as it's always hard to stand against historical atrocities that have been adopted by the masses. When having these discussions it's crucial to remember that if you find yourself with the luxury to just abandon precautions to fit in with the crowd, that is not the choice of society but a choice of your own.

EDIT: I want to make it clear I'm not referring to people who physically cannot mask, cannot access masks, or find themselves in some kind of genuine peril for masking. I'm talking about people caving to peer pressure. And yes, I'm aware there are some disabled/immunocompromised folks who also minimize covid and don't take precautions. I'm aware in that sense that it's technically still a choice for them to do that, but it is not a practical choice for a great many vulnerable people who value their lives.

This is not a game. This is not virtue signalling - a real-ass comment about wearing a mask I saw on another comm here! It is life or death and should be treated as such.

The new shots will cost around $201.99 for uninsured patients paying out of pocket at CVS, spokesperson Amy Thibault told Healthbeat.

They will still be free for Marketplace and Medicare enrollees and for uninsured, underinsured and Medicaid-eligible kids under the Vaccines for Children program. CVS said the shots should be free under most insurance plans at in-network pharmacies.

...

Federal funding for Covid-19 vaccinations has long run dry. When Covid-19 vaccines hit the commercial market last year, the CDC’s Bridge Access Program offered a temporary solution for uninsured and underinsured adults, providing roughly 1.5 million free Covid-19 vaccines. The program was expected to run through December, but is ending months early.

Dr Tran is posting that a lot of people are currently being turned away/ forced to pay out of pocket @cvs. They're being told the new vaxx aren't eligible for the bridge program, one store has said the program ended mid August.

https://xcancel.com/luckytran

cross-posted from: https://hexbear.net/post/3328556

I posted this some time ago under my other account which I nuked along with everything else, and by now I've got a fancy pants recruitment page & a cool grafika in the works...though this is not my strong suit as you may be able to tell by my charming WIP banner:

(the community finder page is still using a placeholder until I'm happy with it, lol)

Is this cringe? Yeah maybe but who cares, kill the cringe cop in your head. I love this game and I'm a mostly-housebound immunocompromised person who's been completely isolated from public life & organizing for the "better" part of the last five years; I want to do something about it in the meager ways I'm still able to. Feel free to delete this if I'm doing a personal shill too much or whatever, but I want to get the word out where people who actually care may exist.

At least 174,455 new cases were reported between August 19 and August 25, up from 169,217 the week before (+3%) and the highest since March 3. Those figures were collected from state health departments and, where necessary, estimated based on hospital admissions.

Actual case numbers are higher because many hospitals and states are no longer reporting detailed COVID data. Laboratory testing is also low as most people and doctors are using at-home tests which are not included in official statistics.

1,075 new COVID deaths were reported during the week, the second week in a row with more than 1,000 new deaths. It’s also the seventh week in a row with more than 500 new deaths and the 232nd week with more than 400 new deaths.

So far this year, nearly 4.8 million COVID cases have been reported across the U.S., causing at least 340,153 hospitalizations (limited data) and 37,301 deaths, according to BNO’s COVID data tracker.

We couldn't even normalize mask use while sick.

I have a big head. My hat size is an XXL. I've tried a few different N95's and they all fit tight and are uncomfortable. Does anyone have recommendations for N95's for big heads?

Key Takeaways

Millions of Americans might be out of work due to Long COVID

About 14% of working-age people with Long COVID hadn’t returned to their jobs within three months

People with five or more symptoms were more than twice as likely to be out of work

So cool that covid is just being treated as an unstoppable force we just have to live with, and demands of universal healthcare have been shit canned among mainstream discourse because what's called "the left" in the Burger Reich wanted to go back to brunch.

Another headline asking "why." We know why.

There were lots of people coughing and such everywhere I went. Burger plus having a field day it seems.

Um capitalism? Wonder how long before Liberals realize hey are as expendable to the ruling elite as the working class. But even if they did realize I think change scares them even more than the status quo.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2024/08/21/innovationrx-covid-may-be-causing-mental-illness-and-rewiring-our-brains/

But as two new studies published in the past week show, severe COVID isn’t the only risk faced by those with the disease. New findings in JAMA Psychiatry find that levels of mental illness such as depression, anxiety and self-harm are elevated after a COVID-19 diagnosis. Additionally, a new study published in Scientific Reports found that patients who lost their sense of smell after a COVID infection saw long-term structural changes to their brains as well as a tendency to more impulsive behaviors.

What! Wow. I didn't know that, you're telling me now for the first time.

Just in case cancel doesn't work.

https://x.com/luckytran/status/1826775763401556046#m