this post was submitted on 23 May 2024
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It will be probably more. I talked with sysadmin from some smaller provider in my country few months ago. And he told me that the migration will take them for most systems about 2 years (depreciation of hardware) and for some machines about 5 years.
So lot of customers are in process of replacing it but it will take multiple years.
Many SMBs will walk away at next server refresh.
VMware is walking dead.
We're currently testing Nutanix and Proxmox for smaller clients.
Proxmox support is similar (~65%) in cost to VMware licensing, but it's not likely to pull this sudden increase BS. Plus it's capabilities are significant for SMB.
I wouldn't be afraid to use Proxmox for small and middle size business. It's solid and based on solid, opensource tech. As long as people make sure they get paid, I'm sure they'll get even better.
Good on you for making sure your clients pay for support, that's how opensource thrives.
Paid support is a requirement for business. Tryinto avoid that is Penny-wise, pound-foolish.
When shit goes tits-up, you really need the support resources right now.
Win-win in my book.
That’s the point. Broadcom focuses on only the top consumers and desire everyone else to go away. They then focus only on what those top consumers want and their support staff can be cut down considerably.
It’s an interesting tactic that they have mastered.
Eventually even those customers will look at alternatives too if there's only like 50 companies worldwide using it.
Yeah, this is one scenario where the principles in F2P games like MOBAs applies to the business world. Focusing only on the top X companies and losing that market share has a cascading effect where it's harder to find competent administrators, it's harder for those administrators to find support online (which then means they have to call for the support they pay for - which while good in the short term for VMWare, is frustrating for the customer, and means that the extra money they're charging has to partially be used to cover techs to provide said report). The little fish in a market like this help to provide what is essentially free troubleshooting online via stack overflow etc. And giving that market share to competitors gives them the cash flow and experience to build a support system online and improve their product, and then win over the big fish.
Bingo.
Where does the next gen of admins come from, if they're been using Proxmox, etc, to learn on?
All my peers started with VMware years ago because they could get ESXi for free and run it on test boxes, then have the experience to deploy in client sites.
It sounds like every large sas company tbh.
You're not wrong!
I think Broadcom overplayed it on this one, as this example shows.
Or, they're playing a game we can't figure out. A 20,000 VM client is in the "large customers we want to keep" category.
Except this is a top customer with tens of thousands of VM's, walking away.
SMBs aren’t running 10k vms.
I used to work for a company that made software built on VMware. The biggest customer was using hundreds of thousands of VMs. Pretty sure they're working on moving off VMware now because of all this bullshit.
But yeah, it's gonna take a long time to move off.
yep, my employer is one of them. Only around 200 VMs but my former employer (an MSP with several hundred customers, among them the administration of the city I live in, all schools, all kindergartens and the church) was also in the process of migrating when I switched.
My friend who works at an MSP said they're migrating most of their customers to HyperV, but these are mostly extremely small companies with a dozen or so employees and only a handful of services