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One-third of Ukrainians would give up land for peace – but it’s not as simple as that.
(theconversation.com)
this post was submitted on 31 Jul 2024
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Hogwash.
Ukraine has a path to victory, the political collapse of Russia's top leadership or them finally running their expansive saved-up war chest and stockpiles of Soviet kit dry.
What is not a viable path to victory is some imaginary scenario where Ukraine accomplishes what Hitler and Napoleon could not, and manages to fully capitulate Russia through military might. That's woefully unrealistic and would face the nightmare of a land war in Asia, and likely Russian use of tactical nukes against enemy forces on their own land, as put forward in their own doctrine.
So, the grinding path is actually the only path, and there was never any possible Ukrainian victory scenario where this war would go for any less than several years. We are currently at two, that is not very many.
Not that Ukraine needs to pursue victory, if they wish to cede territory for peace, I understand and respect that. The decision should be theirs, though, and we should stand behind them until they make it of their own free will.
A political collapse would be a lot more like likely if Russians had to worry about bombs falling on them.
Edit: I chose my words poorly. I'm talking about things like infrastructure. Russians might support the war less if they're sitting in the dark.
“Strategic bombing”, also known as the mass murder of innocent people, has been known to be ineffective for nearly a century.
Ehm, the Germans got bombed into oblivion. It was quite effective.
Entire swathes of Europe were decimated by bombing. Look at Coventry, or London. Did that dissuade the fighting spirit of Britain? Not even a bit. If anything, it galvanised resolve. Strategic bombing just turns innocent people into enemies who have a reason to get revenge.
Effective at what? Germany capitulated only once it was almost fully occupied (e.g. Berlin, Rhineland). The bombs might have helped by binding resources and demoralizing the population but that didn't affect the capitulation directly.
I'm not calling for mass murder of civilians. More like taking out infrastructure.
I mean, ultimately, innocent people would still die. I think focusing on military and government targets is the way to go, ideally
Civilians die in war. That's very different from targeting civilians. Putin made that choice when he chose war. If you want Ukraine to avoid all civilian casualties, they're going to be stuck doing what they've been doing all along, fighting a war of attrition on their own territory.
Sure, I get that, but if you start bombing civilian infrastructure, you just harm innocent civilians - in particular, the most vulnerable people - and you don’t really do anything to erode public support for the war. If anything it builds public support - it gives the people an enemy in you, rather than in their leaders.
I assure you that bombing Russian civilian infrastructure isn’t going to make the war go any faster. Providing equipment, training and personnel to the war effort and focusing on the military targets in the actual war zone is what would make the war end more quickly.
Well, I'll take your word for it since you and other other saying similar things are getting all the votes. It's not someone I've paid that much attention to, seeing as how I'll never be in a position to influence decisions at that level of detail.
The main thing for me is I wish Ukraine were given free rein to fight back as they see fit. I trust them more than myself to make good strategic decisions.
Political collapse, no, not really. Strategic bombing doesn't tend to have that sort of effect, people get upset at the folks dropping the actual bombs. Economic, yes, though. They should be allowed to strike hydrocarbon and military production infrastructure.