this post was submitted on 16 Aug 2024
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Why would they massacre?
For Ukranians the change is that the Russians will be levelling their own towns here.
If they can capture several 100's of conscripts the Ukranians can trade them for their own people.
And lastly, the whole talking point "accept the realities on the ground" and "negotiate for peace" is dead.. because we'll.. Russia will not negotiate or accept the realities on the ground. Maybe Ukraine can offer to trade the Kursk territory for the restoration of the 1991 borders.
It's more to destroy infrastructure and make incursions into or out of the area much harder essentially giving Russia a choice to either take back the area and have a front separated from Russia proper by water with no bridges or give up the area until you can build up a force to push back.
Either way the front in that area is pushed farther away from Ukrainian territory for the foreseeable future.
Well from a Ukrainian point of view, this is the gist that keeps on giving. They already know how to trade territory for time.. and now it's not even their territory.
For the Russians though:
Then about the "hot" fronts:
Manpower is not the biggest issue here, materiel is. Manpower they could mobilize, but I doubt they can magically make more afv's tanks and other stuff appear.. if they had more they would use them in the Donbas, they are all in by now.
And finally, how to approach retaking your own land while trying to maintain it is an SMO.
It seems like Ukraine though this through, I hope they can pull it off.