this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2024
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Seems the strategy is clear mega short nvidia to buy super leveraged intel and hope you can stay solvent longer than the market is irrationnal
I agree this is an obvious market failure because finance bros have become detached from reality even more than usual.
AI boom is starting to smell like DOT COM 2.0.
We have not seen that much improvement since gpt4, mostly cost reduction and UI convenience.
Current AI hype is not cashable, and I say that as an enthusiast who is building 15 kilowatt inference cluster in his living room.
We already have the major improvements already and we are nowhere close to done disgesting then.
Strategy unclear, I'll still Bogle HODL.
Nana would be proud
The problem with shorting is that it's not clear when the crash will happen. If it happens next week, yes, you'll make a giant fortune doing that. If it happens in a year, you'll be fucked. Shorting is essentially a loan, and like any other loan, you have to pay in a little something for as long as you're holding it. That can sap away all profit before you ever see it, if not sap away your entire savings.
There's a saying around the stock market: the market can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
That said, I do think this crash is happening sooner rather than later. I'm just not confident enough to put money on it.
OK, what about this, implement the strategy and then, trigger war between Taïwan and China. They already want ont so bad, if for instance some Chinese war ship got its bridge blown up by a missile full of western electronic components while they were harrassing some fishermen in the straight. Since they're already looking for an excuse, they might not need any further explanations to do what they were already going to do. It worked with the Maine and the Maddox and many other times in history.
Nvidia would probably cease existing without cheap Taiwanese labour to do all theoretical work for them so those shorts could be free money. A free trillion dollar just ready to be picked for one false flag attack, which, these things already happen all the time so, no big deal.
You're way off base to the point where I'm not sure if you're serious or not.
Nvidia uses TSMC, and it isn't because of price. It's a very expensive fab because it's the best one in the world. If war blocked it from functioning, Nvidia would switch to some other fab. What they put out would be worse than what they had before, but nobody else would be able to make anything better, either.
But more likely, open war over Taiwan would tank the economy worldwide. Shorting Nvidia would only be a technical victory for yourself.
Cripple the global economy and erase trillions of gdp?
But then make a few millions off of it ?
Maybe even just 1 million of equivalent pre war purchasing power ?
Yeah I'd be absolutely all over that, awesome !
I mean, even if this snowballs into a worldwide failure cascade that kills billions, totally absolutely worth, it's not even close to the alternative of having to work until I die.
Could even do it remotely with one of those remote operated jetski with starlink on them and a 500kg cargo capacity