Geopolitics

The most surprising thing here is that this got published in The Guardian, as normally all you'd get there is imperialist cheerleading.

Arnaud Bertrand on Twitter summarized the most important points of this piece:

"This is an absolute must-read by @adam_tooze and probably the most important geopolitics article I've read in The Guardian in years:

Tooze makes the point, which I think is correct, that Washington likes to portray itself as a victim and merely reacting - often powerlessly - to events such as the war in Ukraine or Israel's destruction of Gaza and now Lebanon.

But what if, Tooze asks, "that interpretation is too benign"? What if this was all essentially gaslighting and the US were in fact in the driver seat? What if we were witnessing "the pivoting of the US to a deliberate and comprehensive revisionism by way of a strategy of tension", as Tooze puts it?

Tooze argues that Biden's foreign policy is a direct continuation of Trump's, which he calls "literally revisionist", as "he had no interest in the existing rules of the game". Biden, he writes, "has been every bit as aggressive as, perhaps more so than, his predecessor." For example, Tooze says that with regards to China Biden acted even far more aggressively that Trump did with his attempts "to stop China's development in tech" and its "strong-arming [of] allies such as the Dutch and the South Koreans" for that purpose. Similarly, Tooze argues, "in what is now called the Indo-Pacific, the US is not merely defending the status quo" but very much revising it.

Same thing with the Middle-East: despite all its propaganda about wanting peace, the basic fact remains that "the US is paying for more than 25% of Israel's rampage as it physically annihilates Gaza, victimises the West Bank and sets about uprooting Hezbollah. It has pulled allies such as Germany and the UK into line. It is shielding Netanyahu against the reach of international justice."

All in all, Tooze writes that "in all three arenas – China, Ukraine and the Middle East – the US will say that it is responding to aggression. But rather than working consistently for a return to the status quo it is, in fact, raising the stakes. While insisting that it supports the rules-based order, what we are witnessing is something closer to a revival of the ruinous neoconservative ambition of the 1990s and 2000s."

This is a point I've long made myself and the key paradox of today's geopolitics: the US largely built the post-WW2 and post-Cold War order but it's obviously come to the conclusion that it doesn't serve it anymore, and therefore has become the world's foremost revisionist power. And they do so whilst attempting to gaslight all of us with the Orwellian assertion that they do so to protect "the rules-based order

It is as we also have been saying for a long time now: the US is not being forced along this path by either the Zionists, the Kiev regime, or anyone else. Washington is very much in the driver's seat of all this escalation even as it pretends otherwise.