All of Russia's numbers are getting increasingly poor. They certainly aren't out of the fight yet, but it is clear they are getting ground down to a nub of their former selves.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Keep in mind two factors.

This is counting MLRS systems at Russian arms depots. That means that it won't count deployed units in the field. That'll make this number low.
This is counting MLRS systems at Russian arms depots. That means that it will include non-functional MLRS systems that are being scavenged for parts and the like. That'll make this number high.

EDIT: Also, one other important factor. While I have not been following the situation, my guess is that the limiting factor is not the launcher, but rather supply of munitions. That is, Russia could probably maintain a higher rate of munitions use if it had them available.

I don't think that those will "run out", but at some point -- and I assume that that was probably earlier in the war, as it was with artillery shells -- Russia will have consumed available rocket stockpiles, and will be limited to using any rockets at the rate at which new ones can be produced.

EDIT2: Well, I guess there are any MLRS rockets that Russia has obtained from North Korea this year. Ukraine destroyed some munitions from North Korea in those ammo dump drone attacks, as I understand it. No idea how many, if any, of those remain.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 month ago (2 children)

During WWII, the reason the USA was able to freely bomb Japan uncontested, is that Japan ran out of fuel for their planes to defend their airspace. As such, USA bombed their runways, which had lines of parked planes they couldn't fly.

The same concept could apply here. Bomb the storage depots, and they can't use the equipment, even when they DO eventually recieve supplies for them.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Valid historical point, but I am skeptical that Russia of today and and Japan of 1940's is a close analogy.

Infrastructure, stockpiling, allies, and manufacturing capacity difference mean Russia has a long while yet before we see a total breakdown of air control over the home territory. I won't say they have air superiority as they seem to be inept at letting some drones through, but it goes to the very different context that Japan had with the US vs Ukraine and it's limited war vs Russia.

Also the CovertCabal makes clear points backing up the description of not knowing how many rocket artillery are in the field, while acknowledging the various MacGyvered solution they can potentially use.

This whole DPRK troop movement could change many things. Ukraine has done incredible well, but it's still incredibly over matched if you consider population, economy, resources, and stockpiles. The only balancing factor has been the US & Europe in money and hardware, which has been limited and scaled to the situation which has dragged this out. But war fatigue is setting in and budgets are becoming challenged with election changes. Ukraine may now be able to move militarily with less help, but it still has a huge budget deficit and can barely replace vehicle losses let alone get ahead. Don't forget about 10 million people fled, so they have a population of about 30 million to Russia, 140ish million. Russia is an order of magnitude larger in GDP. Lots of factors at play, way beyond the morale kills we see and the daily numbers, as heartwarming as they are.

The fat lady has not even stood up to the mic.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago

Estimates that I've seen of Russia running out of equipment (tank, ifv, mlrs, etc.) range from 2025 to 2032.

Most probably in the 2027—2029 range. That said, they will most likely run out of mlrs first.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

That must have been infuriating for the Japanese.