this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2024
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Cruz's margin (and how different it was from polling) is a shock! This was a systematic miss, I'm curious to learn the root cause once someone investigates that difference... What significant portion of the electorate was missed?
10mil people didn't bother to vote (across the nation), and Latinos showed up for Trump and Republicans to the tune of a +10 margin. Also, women showed up less for the Dems, down 3 points from 2020.
ETA: and Gen Z men were +13 Republican
I don't know if it was really so much of a shock. I saw so many people saying that Texas was trending blue, but every single one of them did not mention the 2022 election in which Republicans swept the entire state by about 10 points. Which is about the same margin that Cruz had here.
Though the polling did seem remarkably off.
Elbridge Gerry has entered the chat.