this post was submitted on 17 Sep 2023
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Why is that?
There's zero class consciousness in the US is the easiest answer. You can see even now as contradictions continue to mount still few people accept a Marxist view of why that is. Unionization rates are still in the toilet with little movement (although existing ones are being more active recently). There are effectively zero socialists (real socialism) in the US and due to complete alienation and indoctrination that is extremely unlikely to change until conditions become much much much worse here for workers.
I do not agree the US will be going anywhere anytime soon though. The decline could and I'd lean into "probably will" take decades if not centuries depending on variables we can't predict the fallout from such as wars, climate change, etc. If this shithole was gonna split the time where that was possible came and went and those who wanted a split lost for now. They'll keep trying of course, but things are still relatively very comfy in the US so people adopting radical ideologies (of any sort) is unlikely and demand from the ruling capitalist class for a split is also nearly non existent, and you obviously need class traitors (or opportunists at least) willing to undermine the institutions in an effective way that leads not to just more misery, as they're doing, but workers actually, legitimately being desperate and seeing a real opening to force a change.
Alright, let me clarify.
When I say I believe the US will continue on for perhaps centuries I don't mean as it exists now as a liberal democracy, essentially sole world superpower (although that's already debatable, but you see what I mean), able to coup, invade, etc. and exploit and do whatever capitalists here want. No, I believe that time is already over and the continent of Africa, recently in South America and Russia/Ukraine is showing that to some degree. It doesn't mean the tide of falling US influence won't end and swing back, but I don't see how it can at the moment. I think we agree generally that the US empire is very much so on its decline trajectory.
But I just don't see any splits within the US arising within the ruling capitalist class and that's key. Yes, the two lib sides are as angry as ever over the manufactured BS that they always focus on, and that just shows the solidarity amongst the capital class remains unshaken as far as I can tell. I don't see billionaires, actual power holders, coming out and advocating for any real undermining and changing of the institutions. Of course it would be to favor them eventually, but their singular power (or collective. A small group of hundred-millionaires or something) and influence is required to catalyze any real move towards destruction of the state.
I think it was Lenin (might be wrong) that suggested that revolutions happen when you have people at the top who are class traitors or opportunists, it doesn't matter that much, who want to see the system changed and exert their outsized power to aid those with little power. It's been the case, to my knowledge, with every revolution. You get discontented elites, some break off and start ratfucking the others, institutions start crumbling, etc. I just do not see real movements towards that in the US. I see grifters and liars (Elon on the capitalist side and, I dunno, MTG/Boebert/even Trump on the politician side) who play to increasingly slightly more revolutionary reactionary elements, but they don't make actual, real attempts to destroy things. Because ultimately I think they see the way things are now is beneficial for them still. Will that change FOR THEM anytime soon? Unlikely, I'd say. It will absolutely get far worse for workers, regular people, petit bourgeois types even, but for the power holders and capital holders, I just do not see anything changing for decades or 10s of decades as everything just gets shittier and shittier and shittier for everyone but what do they care? That's kind of the entire hinge to this thing. It doesn't really matter if 1000 people a day are being tossed in Bezos volcanoes to sacrifice for Elon bucks or something, if the capitalist class is generally united and remains so, nothing will change. They can feed the military and provide them and cops with a comfy life. And everyone else will continue on under increasingly more authoritarian, hellscape rules. More direct violence. More open misery and death. But it's a loooooooong way down to the bottom for America on average before I think people really snap and really demand anything changes.
So, I just don't see a breakup of the USA anytime soon really, although anything can happen. But I do see (and it's happening already) growing irrelevance of the US worldwide, slowly relegated to a non-entity like the British were post-WWII as China rises and surpasses the US globally and as we see rising African nations and South American nations. The biggest unknown variable right now is... what do US capitalists do about this? Do they just accept what they have now and just kinda keep doing what they're doing and progressively losing power and capital? The only alternative is actually (insanely) trying to challenge China. They're certainly putting on that face right now in the state dept/congress, but what comes of it ultimately is impossible to say at the moment. Could go to nuclear annihilation of all life on earth, could go to some sort of half-assed cooperation and agreements, could continue on in some sort of cold war, proxy war fueled hellworld for 100 years (probably this). I think China or at least something stemming from what they're doing will clearly be the victor in such a competition, but, nukes are always the wild card and an increasingly losing and rabid American leadership might start seeing annihilation as a "win" condition when compared to accepting irrelevancy.