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They’re acting like the schism isn’t already guaranteed. A not insignificant portion of Catholics look to the episcopal church as leaders on issues like lgbt treatment and women’s leadership. Meanwhile another not insignificant portion of Catholics look to the medieval church as a role model on such issues and have issues with Catholic stances on things like the death penalty, global poverty, and the environment.
The fact is that the liberation theologists, Catholic workers, and other branches of the Catholic left are just not following the same religion as groups like the Catholics who control the American Supreme Court, the neofrancoists, and those who still say mass in Latin. And stuck in the middle are folks like Joe Biden, many Jesuits, and pope Francis who understand that the Catholic Church has a lot of value in its stability but does need to change to reflect the times and isn’t in a stable position.
The schism is all but official. The question is which side gets to keep the pope, how many pieces are left, and how radical each is.
Anecdotal but all of the Catholics I know have either converted to the episcopal church or they just never go to mass or talk about it but say they’re catholic so grandma doesn’t get sad. You go to mass, and there are no young people whatsoever. I don’t have hard data to back this up but it seems like the Catholic Church in the US could just collapse before a significant schism reaches us.
Oh full agreement, I’m ex Catholic myself (pagan now but it wasn’t a direct conversion). And yeah that’s what Francis was for and what he’s trying to do. There are still young Catholics and I’d break them into two groups: religiously inclined people who like theological rigor or ritual and were probably raised Catholic, and those who find value in regressive traditionalism. The former tend to convert to something like episcopalianism if their values drive them from the church. The latter on the other hand drive more people from regular Catholic attendance
I propose King Solomon's solution.
You jest, but I do think that violence and papal assassination are absolutely on the table here. I suspect we’re going to enter a second warring popes period or simply have a tense situation where both sides claim to hold a pope. Most likely Francis will fall left or liberal. Benedict just died otherwise I could see him providing legitimacy to the conservatives. But enough cardinals will probably split to pick a new pope.
If the conservatives get the Vatican it’ll probably be through Italian intervention and I would suspect that the liberals/left leaning will set up in France, South America, Ireland, or attempt to bargain for a square mile or so of Jerusalem.
If the liberals/left get the Vatican it’ll likely be thanks to pope Francis and I suspect the conservatives will set up in the United States, elsewhere in Italy, Spain, or attempt to get a small portion of Jerusalem.
There’s also a chance both are theologically stubborn enough to insist that their bishop of Rome is their leader and thus they either split the Vatican or attempt to get more of Rome.