this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2023
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I don't have sympathy to GAFA, but the article oversimplifies the reality and jumps to the conclusion here and there. Broken logic is dangerous...
Edit:
For example,
This is oversimplification. Facebook not only acquired WhatsApp, but wanted access to its user data. So, it's not "only because" they wanted to control WhatsApp before they become a rival.
The article's logic becomes sloppy like this every few sentences if not words.
I don't see any large leaps.
If threads uses activity pub, most activity pub users will be meta users using the meta client. Meta will not feel the pressure to conform to the activity pub implementation. They could add features as they want since all their users will use their client. This will cause a sudden incompatibility and the fediverse will have to be the one to fix the problem.
If the fediverse wants to update the protocol to add a feature, we'd have to run it by meta first since they would have to update their client. If they drag their feet it would be hard to force the update knowing it will disconnect the majority of users from the fediverse.
It's the same situation described in the article with Google and XMPP.
I don't see any leaps or jumps. This could be how meta kills the fediverse and we'd be walking into it eyes wide open.
I understand all those points.
I just don't quite see how that would kill the fediverse.
After all wouldn't we be exactly where we are now if meta disconnected again?
It's not like you and I would suddenly start using threads if it started federating.
I have a different argument for why Meta could kill the Fediverse. Even before they engage on Embrace Extend Extinguish strategy, the simple fact that Meta will have an extremely large user base from the start may kill financially the rest of Fediverse.
All projects that embrace ActivityPub are not prepared to deal with the volume of data that a Meta's facebook-like or twitter-like project would bring.
In a best case scenario it would force the development of current Fediverse projects to focus on sustentability earlier than necessary, and the missing features would be delayed. And that alone would cause problems to the future of such projects.
On the other hand, the smaller nodes would see the storage costs rising fast and would be at a higher risk of dying simply because they would not be able to pay.