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this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2023
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It wasn't common sense at the time. Germ theory wouldn't exist for another 20 years after Semmelweis's discovery. His idea of "corpse particles that might turn a living person into a corpse after contact" seemed superstitious and crazy at the time. It was only after germ theory that we learned that these "corpse particles" were in fact germs.
I'm sure our assumptions about climate will work out fine though
Maybe they will, maybe they won't. All we know is that the climate is changing and we appear to be causing it as the average global temperature reversed and began increasing during what would normally be a cooling period. We also believe that we're the ones causing it because the increase in temperature correlates with the increase in CO2, methane and other greenhouse gases emitted. Now, of course correlation isn't causation, but because gases like CO2 are known to have a warming effect due to their ability to trap heat, it makes sense to believe that these gases would contribute to a hotter climate.
It's entirely possible that, in hindsight, we'll find that we were panicking over nothing, and that the earth fixes itself or that this is somehow normal. However, that's a hell of a gamble considering this is our only home in the cosmos. Do you really want to take that gamble?
If we only ever act on things we think we got 100% nailed down, we will either be as ignorant as these fools who locked Semmelweis away or we will stop doing anything at all, because realistically there is always a chance we got some seemingly basic understanding wrong.
The only intelligent thing is to work with a good mix of "what you know" paired with a sane amount of "critical thinking" and an assessment of potentially involved risks.
Covid was also an example (at least here in Germany). People fought against the invonvenience of having to wear masks or stay inside (or get vaccinated) because (as they said) we don't know for certain how dangerous the illness really is and/or how effectice these measures are.
For me the calculation was simple: doing these measures and being wrong has far far less fatal consequences than being wrong and not doing these measures.
IMO the common sense part isn't "oh right of course those are germs", but following the observation that points to some correlation. They don't have to know or understand the root cause to at least consider (or accept) that something is wrong.
Well, I'm not so sure about that. Consider this:
Quantum Mechanics (QM) makes accurate statements and predictions about a lot of physical experiments.
That doesn't mean, however, that the theory in especially well-liked, especially among common people. There are a lot of people who think that QM is incorrect, or at least incomplete, simply because it contradicts their intuition.
But that's a good thing. If everyone considers the status quo as final, no one would research anything. It's fine to question stuff, if you at least follow scientific methodologies. Just saying "nah, I don't buy it" and then leaning back doing nothing is just lazy, and not critical thinking.
That’s the scientific part. Conventional wisdom, on the other hand, is often neither.