this post was submitted on 30 Dec 2023
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True, but I don't believe there is room for such growth in the market. AI is not a thing that will take us all by storm in a few years, it will mature, and it will start to be used in niche segments, and then later we may see a sudden breakthrough when it gets good enough. But we need level 4 AI for that, and Tesla and most developers are still just at level 2, not that much better than 5 years ago. AFAIK only Mercedes is at level 3. But even from there it's probably at least a 10 year journey to level 4.
What is Gen 3?
OK I remember you mentioned that earlier, you may be right, for sure it must have been to increase sales, and AFAIK it did that very successfully. I'm pretty sure it gave a few headaches for the competition, that will now have to work even harder.
Just a thought. ;)
But you'd be amazed what the fight for survival can do for making a company more competitive. Tesla was basically build on that in the beginning. It was never certain Tesla would survive, but they came through extremely competitive. In part because everybody worked their butts off for the project.
Now Tesla is reasonably secure as a major player in the industry, but others are feeling the heat, and are dialing up their efforts too.
That's very fair to think it won't materialize as Tesla thinks. There really are some long shots going on here and a huge amount of faith on investors.
Gen 3 is just the new vehicle platform to make the next 5-10 million vehicles (if we assume they can even do that). It hinges on the 4680 battery developments, and their ability to get costs down even further. It's what the small vehicle (~4 million/y estimated vehicles as per Elon), the van, probably a non cyber truck and whatever else they got up their sleeve will be built off of. As much as you think the company value hinges on FSD, it hinges on this as well. And maybe they are interconnected. No 20 mil without FSD, and no 20 mil without Gen 3 being a success.
I think we've exhausted everything to discuss here lol. I've really enjoyed this conversation with you and you've given me some additional things to think about. So many conversations about Tesla just devolve into chaos and this was a really nice breath of fresh air. Thank you =)
Likewise, interesting to debate this rationally, I can see there is potential, and I think Tesla will do well for the foreseeable future. But I would never buy Tesla stock at the current price.