Futurology

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An economist says most global population growth estimates are far too high, the data shows population peaking around 2060, and at 2.2 the global fertility rate may already be below replacement rate (fasterplease.substack.com)

submitted 9 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 9 months ago (3 children)

I think this will come as a surprise to most people. 2.2 sounds like it's above the replacement rate, but as Jesús Fernández-Villaverde explains, selective gendered abortions & high infant mortality in some countries mean that it isn't.

The figures for South Korea are quite stark. They've engineered a society where they'll shrink to 20 million in size from today's 51 million. His figures rely on the average human life expectancy staying at 85. It's possible in decades to come that may exceed 100. It may not, but there are lots of people working to make it happen.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

shrink to 20 million in size from today's 51 million..

Imagine, if you will, a world where housing prices weren't cost-prohibitive and there exists enough agricultural land to feed everyone without having companies like monsanto destroying the ecology.

Lowering populations should only be scary if you derive your income from the labor of the masses or plan to derive your income from the labor of the masses.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

I wonder if they might actually allow immigrants, while the birth rate other places is still higher. They have less of a reputation for xenophobia than, say, Japan.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago

If you believe their figures, it's notable that although North Korea has about half the population of the South, it currently has more babies. Could lead to interesting situation regarding potential re-unification (although not likely any time soon...).