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An economist says most global population growth estimates are far too high, the data shows population peaking around 2060, and at 2.2 the global fertility rate may already be below replacement rate (fasterplease.substack.com)

submitted 9 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 9 months ago (3 children)

I think this will come as a surprise to most people. 2.2 sounds like it's above the replacement rate, but as Jesús Fernández-Villaverde explains, selective gendered abortions & high infant mortality in some countries mean that it isn't.

The figures for South Korea are quite stark. They've engineered a society where they'll shrink to 20 million in size from today's 51 million. His figures rely on the average human life expectancy staying at 85. It's possible in decades to come that may exceed 100. It may not, but there are lots of people working to make it happen.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

shrink to 20 million in size from today's 51 million..

Imagine, if you will, a world where housing prices weren't cost-prohibitive and there exists enough agricultural land to feed everyone without having companies like monsanto destroying the ecology.

Lowering populations should only be scary if you derive your income from the labor of the masses or plan to derive your income from the labor of the masses.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

I wonder if they might actually allow immigrants, while the birth rate other places is still higher. They have less of a reputation for xenophobia than, say, Japan.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago

If you believe their figures, it's notable that although North Korea has about half the population of the South, it currently has more babies. Could lead to interesting situation regarding potential re-unification (although not likely any time soon...).

[–] [email protected] 4 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Great news. I'm looking forward to living in a world with less than a billion people.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 9 months ago (1 children)

If we get the lower end of these projections, you might plausibly live to see a world with a billion people less than now, but to see a world with less than a billion total you'd have to have an extremely long lifetime, which implies some medical breakthrough, in which case, unless you have some super-exclusive access, the population would stop declining, just get super geriatric. I suppose there are other ways to do get there, such as global nuclear war, but even that might let quite a few people continue in the southern hemisphere.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago

Yes, I definitely expect the human lifespan and health span to continue to increase as the science of longevity advances.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 9 months ago

IIRC the people at the UN said something similar. They gave a few projections, and commented that the low ones seem most likely and might still be too liberal.

Brave New World baby factories when?

[–] possiblylinux127 2 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Depopulation is something that could be very scary. Maybe we'll just replace the people with robots

[–] [email protected] 2 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Why is it scary? Doesn't it just mean more resources/person?

[–] possiblylinux127 1 points 9 months ago (1 children)

That means there will be less people to operate critical infrastructure. There will be a bunch of old people but very few young health people.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago

Frankly, I think that's nothing compared to the risks associated with our current infinite growth model. That's a problem that would sort itself out after a few generations of increased suffering.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 9 months ago

The Limits to Growth 2023 update says that we arlready near the peak

Graph

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago

We just gonna pretend that climate apocalypse is guaranteed not to happen, just keep following the line on the graph, huh